(Gener after cashing Pick 5 ticket on KY Derby Day…Fun times)
|Days Results||14 / 3-4-6|
|2023 Overall — 676||676 / 233-222-297|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.47%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.08%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 415-676||61.39%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 20-30||66.67%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 12-30||40.00%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 37-57||64.91%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 20-57||35.09%|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 7/4-2-1||57.14% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4||46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1||20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 1/0-0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 91/42-18-9||46.15% Win / 75.82% ITM|
We return to live racing and wagering opportunities on this Twilight Thursday card at the best racing oval in the entire free world.
Here’s a few of our looks at the night-time activities. First post is 5 p.m. ET
1st: 5-6-3/4-10/2-7/1-9/8-11-12…Frosty the Giant (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval on this Thursday night twilight special. This 2YO son of Frosted has a race under the girth, and experience is a good thing. Trainer has won with .26% of the last 357 starters, too, and this one picks up Kentucky’s best in the saddle. Works are encouraging. One to beat, IMO. Callin My Name (6) figures to have a real shot here, too. This son of Gormley ran 3rd at KEE on debut in early April. Picks up a new and improved rider for this occasion. Has stayed at KEE for the work pattern. Chance. Patch O’Brien (3) will make the first start of the career. Bargain purchase for the connections, but the works are nice and gets a top rider — who is staying here in KY for the full meet. Wow. Great news. Rider and trainer have gone 3-1-1 in the last 7. I bet the 5-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 5-3 over/under the 6-4-10-2-7 in two smaller units.
2nd: 2-8-1/9-5-6/10//4/3…Musical Diva (2) takes top billing in the 2YO filly race. This daughter of Maclean’s Music cost a nice $300,000 at the 2023 OBS March sale. Newly acquired and immediately into the barn of red hot Brad Cox. Has won with the first .33% of the 21 starts this meet. Work on May 2 was spot on. Spot. On. Look out here. April Cover (8) is a first timer for the barn of HOF trainer. Barn wins with .14% of the last 731 to make the debut race. Gets an “old friend” of the stable back in the saddle. Interesting. Chance. V V’s Dream (1) draws the rail for the first start and that’s always tough. Barn only wins with .08% in the initial try, too. Sharp work and dam has 2 winners from the first 2 starters. May be good, but may need this one? I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 8-1-9-5-6-10 in two smaller units.
3rd: 6-4-2/3-7/1-5/8…Frigid Lady (6) gets my pick here. This 3YO daughter of Frosted will make the 2nd start off the layoff and the warn wins with .19% of the last 451 to do that. Also, this one returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn has won with .24% of the last 409. Has 2 runner-ups in 3 starts here. Gets the top rider around. Lot to like. Ghostly Girl (4) has run two 2nds in a row and looked like a winner in each. Figures to be rolling in the lane and will be the one to catch by wire time. Returns as a beaten favorite, as well, and this barn wins with .29% of the last 65 to do that. Tell Me When (2) ran well before tiring at the end of the 6.5-furlong effort at KEE in the last. Gets Lasix for the second time and the barn wins with .15% of the last 132 to do that. Top rider. Respect. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 6-4 over/under the 2-3-7-1-5 in two smaller units.
4th: 3-1-7/2-4-8/6/5…Wicked Secret (3) makes a lot of changes here. Will race as a gelding for the first time and will get Lasix for the first time here, too. Will make the 2023 debut. And, should like the class drop. If any or all of those work? Look out. Little Man Can (1) gets back to the dirt here after a rough go on the grass last time out. Love the trainer. She is one of the best in the sport today. Horses always look great and most run very well. This one could move up with the significant class drop here. Barn wins with .25% of the last 12 to go from MSW to MCL. Divining Stone (7) gets Lasix for the first time and the barn wins with a whopping .24% of the last 41. Top rider gets the leg up. Has not been out since 2021. Wow. I bret the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 7-2-4-8-6 in two smaller units.
5th: (10)-6-2/9-7/3-8/5-4//1…The first and only grass race on the Thursday night card comes here and it will be contested at 11/8-miles. I go with the lone Main Track Only entrant — Eleven Central (10) — if this one comes off the sod. Has run up against some good ones in their past and has hit the board in 6 of 8 lifetime. Single, if this one gets in. Vivar (6) gets the nod here if it stays on the grass. This one has 2 wins in 5 grass moves so far and won the last time out at KEE. Loses that condition, and moves up, but looks good in this spot. Was a long-shot last time out. Makes me a little leery. Tommy Bee (2) goes for the bard of Brad Cox and will make first start since August of last year. Training very well up in Indy. Has Stakes experience. My bet. Take note. I bet the 10 or the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager on either of those. I will key the 10 or the 2 over/under the 6-9-7-3-8-5-4 in the exactas. More with the 6-9-7 than the rest.
6th: 2/4/7/6/5-1-3…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Invaluable (2). This one is the ML favorite and will get significant play at the windows. But this one looks the part, coming off an impressive win at KEE on April 13. Top rider sticks and the barn wins with .20% when winning the last race. Has a 1-1-0 record in 3 previous tries here. Adds up. But? At this distance, this 6YO mare has never won in 4 previous tries. Concern. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 2 over/under the 4-7-6-5-1-3 in the exactas. Lots more with the 4. Little more with the 6.
7th: 7/4-12/10/5-8/2-3-9-11//1-6…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here in the feature race of the card and with Principe d’Oro (7). This 4YO son of Medaglia d’Oro has run three good ones in a row and has come off the extended layoff better than ever. Nearly beat Barber Road last time out and returns here as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .24% of the last 312 to qualify for that title. HOF rider gets call. Looks salty here. I bet the 7 to win/place and double down on the win wager. I will key the 7 over/under the 4-12-10-5-8-2 in the exactas. More with the 4-12 than the rest.
8th: 4-6/3-7/5/2-8//1…The night’s finale is a 11/16-mile test over the main track for the claimers. I go with Floki’s Flight (4). This one drops into the claiming ranks for the first time since he was 2nd here last September. Nearly won that day and was picked up for this same price tag. In three starts over this track, this one has 2 wins and a second. Loves it here. Long Crow (6) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time since 2021. Nearly won at this level then. Gets a huge rider switch for this encounter and should like the drop. In two previous tries here? Has a win and a second. Working well this spring. Looks ready to pop. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. Sternly. I will key the 4-6 over (only) the 3-7-5-2-8 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene
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