Day Results 10/4-3-7
2019 Overall 608 222-228-299
Win % of Top Pick 36.51%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 41.06%
2019 Top Pick in the Money –418 of 605 69.09%
Top Selection ITM / CD 18-28 64.29%
Top Selection Win / CD 8-28 28.57%
“Key Horses” @ CD 5-2-0-1 40.00%
“Key Horses” in 2019 120-49-23-14 40.83%
Upset Special of the Day/ CD 2-0-0-0 0.00%

We are starting to heat it up. Nabbed 4 winners out of the 10 races carded on Wednesday, and our Key Play of the Day was an easy and impressive winner that returned $13 for each $2 played across the board and the exacta returned a net profit of $7.80 for every dollar plunked down.

We are starting to heat it up, just in the nick of time, too. Oaks on Friday. Derby on Saturday. Cash on Sunday. That’s the way we look at it.

Here’s a closer look at the Thursday “Thurby” card:

1st: 1-8-4/7-1A/3-2B-5…Lady Delaware (1) is a 2YO American Pharoah filly who will get her first career start against the colts going 5-furlongs over the main dirt track. But trainer Wesley Ward — who owns the 2YO races in the early Spring — has no issue trying his gals against the guys. Likely to get bet a lot in this spot, and maybe should be the favorite. After all, the works have been solid and the sire is winning with .67% of first time starter so far in the young stallion career. The dam of this one has 4 winners from 5 starters, too, and a SW. Jockey has teamed up to post a 5-5-0 record in the last 14 days with this trainer. But…Enforceable (8) is a 2YO son of the great Tapit, and has been training, as the AT&T peeps would say, “Just OK.” Like the April 10 move here. Barn hits with .16% of first time starters. Dam of this one has 4 winners from 4 starters, and get this — 3 Stakes Winners. Will need to flash more speed than what he’s shown in the a.m. Memorable (4) just may be the one to beat in this spot. This son of Uncle Mo sold for a modest $100,000 as a 2YO in April. Now, gets to the track quickly. Love the work on April 24. Barn hits with .19% of first time starters. Gets a red hot rider in the bike. I bet the 4 (Take Note) across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 4 over the “all button” in a smaller version.

2nd: 4-7-2/1/6-3…Supreme Aura (4) drops from a G3 Stakes event all the way to the price tag of $50,000 claiming in this spot. Barn hits with .18% of those making the third start off a layup. Worked well at Keeneland on April 25. I like the mud mark on this pedigree, too. Could be a factor in this spot. Mr Darcy (7) is another one dropping in class for this one. Had all kinds of issues in the last effort, going 4-wide throughout. Like the work here on April 22. Has a win and a second over an off-track.  Rider is off to a great start here this meet. Cowboy Rhythm (2) is another dropping in class for this one. I like the record of a second and a third in only two starts here. Has a 2-1-1 mark in 6 starts over an off-track, too. My pick, I bet the 2 across the board (Take Note) and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

3rd: 6-7/2-5/4…My Majestic Rose (6) has run two seconds in a row for a barn that is having a solid 2019 season. Gets a solid rider in the irons, and should improve with the second start off a layup. A deep closer for a barn that hits with .30% of those going from a sprint distance to a route. Watch out here. Looks primed. Second Coming (7) ran second on debut on April 5 at Keeneland. Has since worked lights out at Keeneland on April 24. Trainer hits with .13% of those getting a route race for the first time, and with .14% getting the second career start. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box these two in the exacta. I will key the 6-7 over (only) the 2-5-4 in a softer brand.

4th: 2-7-1/6-8/4-3…Evening Tide (2) drops from the $16,000 price level down to $10,000 today, and the 4YO filly should be a tough out at this level. Ran second last time out, and has hit the board in three of the last four and four of the last six. Gets a top rider back in the saddle for this one, and the filly does have a win and a third in three tries here. Looks ready. Sun Dress (7) is a 4YO Archarcharch filly who had her two race win streak snapped last time out. Looked ready in that one, but faded late after setting the early fractions. Drops in class today and back to the same level she won at two starts ago. I use. She Takes Heart (1) is dropping in class and will be making the third career start for this barn operation. like the works down in Arkansas, and should fit nicely here, too. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

5th: (15)-(14)-(12)-(11)-9/2-1-4-3/8-5…The first grass race of the day is carded for 11/16-miles. Rains in the forecast on Wednesday night and most of the day on Thursday. Candidate to be moved to the dirt track. But if it stays on the sod, it is likely to be a bit soggy and soft. Hard to handicap these kind in advance, but here’s what we will suggest: If the grass is moved from the sod to the dirt, I will definitely go to the two horses entered for “Main Track Only.” Love Mississippi (15). In fact, I could use this one as a Key Play of the Day, if this race moves to the main track. Last race was really good and has hit the board in two of the last 3. If they don’t get in, then I will take a look at the two horses trained by Todd Pletcher from the AE List. Like Extraordinary Jane (12) the best, especially considering the third over the downhill course on Feb. 23. If these two don’t get in, then I will resort to Battle of Memphis (9). This one comes from the barn of Mark Casse, and is coming off a nice win at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 22. So? Lot to work through. But I like the 15-12 both, but go to the 9 if the others don’t make the race. I like the 9 good enough to move up to face winners for the first time and play across the board. I would then key the 9 over/under the 2-1-4-3-8-5. 

6th: 3-8-5/2-6-4…Maiden Claiming event for the 3YO fillies, and I will give the slight edge to Won Lil Indian (3). Ran well at the $25,000 level last time out against suspect competition at Tampa Bay. But has returned to Louisville and worked OK for this one. Rider is a little suspect, and if the track turns up muddy? The pedigree does NOT suggest mud marks, or inspire confidence. So? J D’s Girl (8) is coming off a fifth place finish over a sloppy track. Outrun in that one, but drops into theMCL ranks now. Barn hits with .18% of those going from MSW to the price tag. Love the work here on April 16. Like the rider, too. Chance. Paisley (5) has run 9 times for trainer Ian Wilkes, and is still hunting the first win. Does have 2 seconds and 2 thirds. Probably should play under the “all button,” but I will go with the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. Take note.

7th: 8-3/5-1-7/4-10…A bargain bin special here, and I will go strong with my Key Play of the Day — Buggy Brown (8). This one was claimed two times back when running second, by a neck. Drops from the $25,000 level down to the $5,000 price. should fit nicely here for a top barn and owner combo. Look for this one to rev it up early and often. I will be the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under the 3-5-1-7-4-10.

8th: 2-4-7/1-10-(12)/3-9-(13)…Opening Verse Stakes…The second grass race of the day will be contested at the 1-mile distance, and if it all possible will likely be contested over the grass. Hot Springs (2) is a perfect 4-for-4 over this Churchill Downs sod, and is perfect 1-for-1 at this distance. Ran into trouble in the last out — the G2 Muniz Memorial Handicap at the Fair Grounds in late March. Should benefit from that exercise, and be ready to return to his favorite racetrack any where. First Premio (4) is a 5YO Pure Prize horse who won easily at the Fair Grounds when he was last on a “good” surface. Has a win and a second in two tries here, too. Will stalk and pounce. Ballagh Rocks (7) has a win over this track, too, and comes in off 8 straight Graded Stakes races. Has hit the board in 4 of them. May be the horse to beat. Has faced the toughest competition. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

9th: 4-1-5/7/6-2…Data Damsel (4) is trained by Ben Colebrook and this 4YO filly will be making just her second start for that barn. Trainer hits with .16% of those making the second start, and with .15% of those making the second start off the layoff. Gets a nice rider, and I think the serious drop in class should make the difference here, too. Houston Strong (1) broke the maiden at a tag two races back. Now, drops back into the claiming ranks. Barn hits with .19% of those going from turf to dirt, and with .22% of those running in the claiming ranks. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

10th: 6-7-8/9-2-1/5-4…Unbridled Sydney Stakes…This is the final grass race of the day and it will be a Stakes event contested at 5.5 furlongs. I love the outside horses in this spot — led by Lady Suebee (6). At 8-1 ML odds, I will make this one my Upset Special of the Day. Trainer hits with .20% when the horse gets the blinkers for the first time. Barn also hits with .25% when they ship in for the contest. Gets a red-hot, top rider to take the reins again. Should be close at the wire. Morticia (7) ran a huge one to win the Giant’s Causeway Stakes at Keeneland on April 13. Has a 7-4-3 record in 16 starts at this distance, and has a second in only try over this sod. May struggle if the grass is soft. Only try over a giving course was not a good one. Beware. Ruby Notion (8) is a class act who has won nearly $500,000 in the career to date. Had a tough trip last time out. Better than that, and the barn hits with .19% of those away from the gate this long. Before running fourth in the Breeders’Cup Turf Sprint last time out — against the colts — she had won two in a row. I can go here. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

11th: 11-9-2/4-7/1-5…The finale is a $10,000 claimer going 1 mile. I go to the outside here with Audubon Wood (11). Like the 6-1 ML odds, and Ian Wilkes is going well right now. Rider is under-appreciated and can really find the right spots. Barn hits with .17% of those when dropping in class like this. Taylor’s Sense (9) comes from the barn of Steve Asmussen. Didn’t finish the last race, and has been away since April. But the barn hits with .23% when dropping in class this much, and with .13% of those when away this long. Rider is red hot right now. I bet the 11-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in this spot.

Good Luck & All the Best/Gene