|Day Results||11 / 3-2-4|
|2020 Overall 514||514 / 185-167-203|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.99%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.99%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –328-514||63.81%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD Spring-Summer: 15-22||68.18%|
|Top Selection Win / CD Spring-Summer: 9-22||40.91%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD Spring-Summer: 1-1-0-0||100.00% Win / 100% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 73-23-17-10||31.51% Win / 68.49% ITM|
(Social distancing and masking up)
We get back to action on Thursday afternoon at Churchill Downs, and another fantastic card has been assembled by Racing Secretary Ben Huffman.
Here’s hoping that the rains start to subside a bit and that the grass course is utilized to its’ fullest extent.
If so, this could be one compelling and exciting day of racing.
Here’s a closer look:
1st: 4-2/3-5-10/7-12-11/9-6-1…The first “baby” race of the year in KY. This 4.5-furlong test is for the fillies, and should be dominated — per usual — by two of the best juvenile trainers in the world. Our top pick is Tequila Queen (4), who is a daughter of American Pharoah and trained by the youngster guru — Wesley Ward. This one has ben training lights out over at KEE in the a.m. Cost $325,000 to purchase at the 2019 August Sale at Saratoga. Gets an aggressive rider in the bike, too. Could be gone before it starts. Mad Maddy (2) is another daughter of American Pharoah and is conditioned by Steve Asmussen. This one work a half mile in :46 flat at KEE on May 6. Has speed. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up. Could be an American Pharoah showdown. I bet the 4-2 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 4-2 over/under the 3-5-10-7-12-11 in two smaller units.
2nd: 5-7/8-9-3/6-10…T Loves a Fight (5) has not been in a race since January at Aqueduct. Idle since then and stuck up in NYC to do most of his training. Barn is relative unknown, but has won with .21% of 33 starts this year. This NY-bred will face open company here, and that is always a test. But this one has run well against others in the past — including three starts ago in the Gravesend Stakes at the Big A. In 38 career starts, this one has a 11-6-4 mark. Has won over $575,000, too. Knows his way around the track, and gets a huge rider switch for this effort. Ruler of the Nile (7) ships in from Oaklawn Park for a barn has that won with .12% of 65 starters this year. Ran a nice third against better and as a beaten favorite last time out. Barn hits with .17% of those kind upon the return. Has a win over an “off track,” too, and you have to handicap with one eye on the weather map, as well. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-7 in one exacta. I will key the 5-7 ovr/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller varieties.
3rd: 12-9-2/11-4-8-10/6-5-3-1…Drop Dead Gorgeous (12) is, obviously, a horse named after my wife, Leigh Ann. Obviously. The 4YO Strong mandate filly drops another couple of notches in the MCL ranks for this one. Ran a nice second against the $30,000 level last time out. In 14 career starts to date, this one has 3 seconds and 3 thirds. Barn hits with .21% in the MCL ranks. Plus, this will be only the third career start for the new connections, which claimed this one three starts ago. Ran a nice one to be second last time out. Should be ready off that last outing. Gypsy Wife (9) drops in class for this one, too. The 3YO daugther of Lookin at Lucky showed marked improvement last time out, when she was stretched out to two turns. Barn hits with .31% of those making the second career start at a route of ground. Stylish Ash (2) will be making her first start for a new barn operator today. The 4YO Malibu Moon filly, who was formerly conditioned by Brad Cox, will drop from the MSW ranks all the way to the $20,000 price tag today. Worth noting. The winner and the “show” horse in that debut in January of 2019, both came right back to win the next out. I bet the 12-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 12-2 over/under the 9-11-4-8-10-6-5 in two smaller units.
4th: 9-2-(16)/(15)-6-7/5-8-12/11-1-(14)…Summer Revolution (9) is yet another from the prodigious barn of trainer Robertson Diodoro. The trainer had two runners over the weekend. We touted both. They both won. Can’t miss this one for the barn trifecta. This son of Summer Bird was claimed last time out for $8,000. Wheels right back at the same price and the barn is winning with .24% on the first start after the purchase. Love the work at Oaklawn Park on May 9. Looks sharp right now. A win and two seconds over the last 3 outings. May be another one today. Spikes Shirt (2) drops all the way from a $50,000 tag to the $8,000 level here. Now, that — my good friends — is a class drop. May be a mic drop, too. And, the 7YO son of Speihtstown may just drop kick this field. Did not run a lick the last time out, but that was at the $50,000 level. Never been close to this price tag before. Work on May 1 was spot on. May not be as good as he once was, but if he has anything left? Must use for me. If either Yes I See (16) or Too Fast to Pass (15) draw in from the AE List, I use. Both fit in this price category. I bet the 9-2 across the board and then box the 9-2-16 or the 9-2-15 in the exacta. I will key the 9-2 over/under the 6-7-5-8-12 in smaller units.
5th: 6-4-9/5-11-12-(13)/1-7-10-(14)…His Giant (6) comes from the highly successful barn of trainer Tom Amoss, and will sport the colors of highly successful owner Maggi Moss, too. Joe Talamo will get the reins again, and this one won last time out for the $16,000 tag. Losses that condition, though, and will face tougher today. Does have a win over an “off track,” on the resume. Gets a rider who has won with .18% of the last 34 mounts for this barn. Contender. Feeling It (4) should fit with these, after faltering in the late strides in the last outing. Gets a new rider, who is very heady and clever. Has been working very well for a HOF trainer. And, has a win in six starts at this distance. Good resume as any in this group. Quest for Fire (9) is another getting significant class relief today. Didn’t win in 11 starts last year. But did have 6 thirds. Has a win in 3 chances this year. Very proficient at this distance, too, and I like the “off” pedigree numbers. Chance. I bet the 6-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 6-9 over/under the 4-5-11-12-13-1-7 in two smaller units.
6th: 3-6-12/9-4-(15)-(13)-11/2-10-1…Frost or Frippery (3) just ran a huge winning race on April 30 at Oaklawn Park. Came with a middle move and just roared away at the wire. Gets a new rider for this one today, but the barn is red hot. Again. In 4 starts here over the weekend, Brad Cox picked up two more wins. In 262 mounts so far this year, Cox now has saddled winners at a .25% clip. Connections just claimed this one last time out, in the easy win. Barn hits with .38% when dropping off the claim, and with .29% of those make the first start off the purchase. Beware here. Overzealous (6) has not been worse than second in the last 8 starts. She has 3 of those, and 5 wins. Not a bad streak, to be sure. The 6YO Candy Ride gelding has a tidy record of 2 wins and 2 seconds in 5 starts over this oval, too. He’s tough. Blue Steel (12) is a speedy sort and those kind have been running very well over this track to date. On May 2, this 4YO gelded son of Will Take Charge turned in a nice work at the Fair Grounds. Has a win in 3 starts here, too. I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3-6-12 over/under the 9-4 in two smaller versions, as well.
7th: 4-3-6/10/(13)-8-7-2-1/(14)-(12)-9-5…Mentality (4) is a 5YO NY-bred mare by Freud and will be dropping out of a Stakes event at Aqueduct into the higher-end claimer today. Significant drop, no matter how you cut it. Didn’t run well in the last race Stakes event. But should appreciate the cut-back in distance here and the soft footing on the sod. Has run over a course labelled “good” on three different occasions. Finished 2nd twice and 3rd on the other. Has speed to use, or can throttle back and stalk. Either one. Rider is a regular for this barn operation. Look out here. Dalika (3) ran very well in a Stakes event at the Fair Grounds in the last try, back in December of 2019. In 10 turf tries to date, has 2 wins and 3 seconds. Has a win and a second over this sod, too. Has faced some tough ones in the past. Beware. Devant (6) will shorten up to this pure Sprint distance for the first time. Will be coming very late. Gets a HOF rider in the irons and he’s off to a good start here, too. Should be tough in the late strides. I bet the 4-3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 10 in two smaller versions.
8th: 1-6-7/8-10/5-4/2-3…My great friend, Dale Romans, is about ready to set up shop at The Louisville Thoroughbred Society soon. We will have “Dale’s Corner.” You can chat with the winningest trainer in Churchill Downs history. You can get your photo taken. And, you can feel free to laugh. The man — Romans — knows how to spin a story and jostle to a joke, or two. He may be ready to get his photo taken here for the first time this Spring, too. His 3YO filly, Addison (1), could be a hand-full in this spot, if she can get a decent break and a clear run in the final stages. The 1-mile distance should be right up her ally, and she already has a win here, too. Class drop makes this one serious. Princess Phone (6) ran a very nice second last time out. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it came last August. Has been training OK in Lexington. And, does have a win over this track and it came off a layup, too. But she will need to have her running shoes on today. Complete (7) won last time out at Turfway Park to break the maiden. Now, this 4YO Include filly moves to the dirt and gets a new rider in Javier Castellano. Trainer is 0-5 when facing winners for the first time. Steep climb. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-6 over/under the 7-8-10-5-4 in two smaller units.
9th: 5-10-(14)/9-(15)-6-8-(12)/7-1-(13)-2/11-3-4…Front Run the Fed (5) is the 8-5 ML favorite, and certainly appears to be the odds-on favorite to be the PT favorite, too. In 7 career starts, this one has 3 wins, 2 seconds and a third. The only time he was off the board for trainer Chad Brown came in the initial start of the career — back in September of 2018. Has been working good for the return to the races, and although the barn didn’t get a win this weekend, it did have 3 seconds in 4 tries. This one has the look. And, thus? Becomes my first Key Play of the Day. Grass races may be interesting, if they remain on the sod. With all the rain, the course is sure to be soggy and damp. This one has three races of experience over a “good” sod. Those races had rendered two wins and a hard-fought second in a Stakes. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed. I will double down on the 10-14-9-15-6-8-12.
10th: 11-8/9-4/3-12-2-6/1-5-10-7…The final race of the day is a high-end MCL event for the 3YO fillies. I will go to the outside and land on Garden Affair (11). This 4YO daughter of Street Boss will be making her third start off a layup, and the barn hits with .13% of those. The dam of this one is Stakes-placed and has tossed 4 winners and 2 Stakes Winners from the first 6 starters. This one has a right to break the maiden in career start #13. Maybe it will be “Lucky 13” today. Gets a huge rider switch for this one. Flashing Red (8) has some speed to burn and utilize and it is never bad to have speed. This 3YO daughter of Violence looked like a winner last time out, while racing at Gulfstream Park. But just could not get past the winner that day. Will make the first start for a new trainer today, and the barn wins with .13% of the newcomers. Should fit nicely in this group. I bet the 11-8 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. i will key the 11-8 over/under the 9-4-3-12-2-6-1 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene