|Day Results||9 / 4-2-6|
|2020 Overall 1529||1529 / 540-517-655|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.32%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.32%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –994-1,534||64.80%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 46-70||65.72%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 23-70||32.86%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 7-2-0-1||28.57% Win / 42.86% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 204-71-44-28||34.81% Win / 70.10% ITM|
We were in such a hurry on Wednesday morning that we failed to hit our “send button” on the picks until our great twitter friend “Rob” sent me a link. Sorry about that. Was trying to get out the door in time to get to the Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.
So…we will try to slow down just a bit to ensure that we get the info posted today.
Overall, a really good day on Wednesday. Four winners. Had the first race exacta that returned a whopping $158.60 for each $1 played. Added four other exacta payoffs.
Will try to keep it going. Here’s a look at our Thursday picks:
1st: 3-6/2-4/5…Twirling Patti (3) is a first time starter from the barn of Tommy Drury, one of the best young trainers in the game today. He wins with .15% of those making the career debut and this one has been working well for the first start. Daughter of Twirling Candy (whom I visited with at Lane’s End Farm on Wednesday — omen?) was purchased for $25,000 at a 2YO Sale earlier this year. Goes for the Churchill Downs Racing Club. Sire wins with .18% on debut and the dam has a winner from 1 starter, too. I like. She’s Forever (6) will be moving up in class after a nice 2nd at KEE on oct. 18. That was at the $30,000 level. Moves up some rungs today. Has some speed. Gets a new rider, too. Trainer looking for the first win. Maybe today? I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box those two in one exacta. I will key the 3-6 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
2nd: 5/3-1-2/6/4…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Ship’s Creek (5). Won’t get much of a price at PT, since the 3YO daughter of Midshipman is the even-money ML favorite. But…this one is coming off a nice 2nd at KEE on Oct. 11. Was definitely 2nd best that day in her first try at the MCL ranks. Three races ago, this one ran 2nd at Ellis Park against MSW company and over a very firm grass course. Works are nice. Barn is solid. Gets a top rider back in the irons. My pick. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in two exacta plays.
3rd: 2-1A-1/5-6-3/4…Passageway (2) has run three good ones in a row and moved up to face winners for the first time on Oct. 21 at KEE. Ran right on the leaders heels up until the wire shadow. Finished 3rd in that one, but should relish the cut back in distance for this one today. Also, drops a rung in the claiming ladder and should get the trip of a lifetime if the rider can stay on the task. The one to beat. The Beat (1A) is my preferred one in this entry. Ran a huge one to win here in May. Has not been out since, but the works are solid. Will move up to face winners off the layup, but the same rider has been named on both of the Ptk horses. So, one is likely to exit stage left before the gate is open. Highest Mandate (1) won the last time out when getting the drop in class, too. Impressive in an easy gate-to-wire win. I could go with either of these. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 over/under the rest in two smaller units.
4th: 2-1/5-7-6…Keep Your Distance (2) ran a huge one last time out at KEE, nearly winning at this same level. Gave up it nearing the wire and that is a concern here today, as well. Has speed. Will use it. Rider has won with .24% of the last 41 mounts for this barn. And, you will have to come and catch to beat. Honey Parade (1) is my pick here. This is one that has speed and can use it early, or has the versatility to stalk and pounce late, too. Rider has been on this one over the last 4 outings. Has won 2 of those. Will face tougher in this spot today, but the barn does a good job and this one fits here. I bet the 1 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 2 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 2-1 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
5th: 7-1/8-4-3/2-5-6…Sidetown (7) may be the most talented of those that have already run a race in here today. The 2YO son of Twirling Candy will now drop into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .22% of those kind. Has flashed speed in both of the first two outings here against much tougher. Faded late in each. Has a good work here on Nov. 7. Hoping that the drop in class helps the speed hang on late. Lend It Tewmey (1) may be the most accomplished in this group. Has run 4 times already. Has a 2nd and two 3rds on the resume. Should be the one to catch from the rail, but the two speedsters could cook the goose early here. May set up for the closers. If you can find them in this haystack. El Segundo (8) is my needle. This one is a son of Munnings and will drop into the claiming ranks for the first time and make the 2nd career start. Barn wins with .21% when getting the 2nd run at them. Also, this one will add blinkers today. Barn wins with .11% of those. New rider. Chance. I will be the 8 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4-3 in two smaller units.
6th: 6-(11)-(13)/4-9/3-10-(12)/1-5-(14)/8-2…The first grass event of the day is truly an interesting one for the 2YO fillies seeking to snap the MSW condition. I will saddle up with Illiogami (6). This one sticks out on paper, if…if the two AE horses listed next do not draw into the race. If…if they do? Then this becomes a tougher race to handicap and separate. The top pick lost by less than 2 in the career debut. Barn normally lets them run themselves into final shape and allow for education along the way. Wins at a .11% clip on the 2nd try. This one is a daughter of Tapit and out of a Irish-bred mare. Returns as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .31% of those kind. Stunning Princess (11) ran two very nice 2nds at Saratoga before trying the G1 Stakes at Woodbine. Overmatched there, but would fit very nicely here. Pick if in. Picasso Collection (13) came with a thrust at the end of the career debut at KEE on Oct. 4. Went from last to near first at odds of nearly 50-to-1. Spirited run late. Must use if she gets in here. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and use the 11-13 in the same category if they get in. Box the top 3 in the exacta — no matter the numbers and depending on who gets in.
7th: 1/3-6/4-5-2…Beautiful Trauma (1) sticks out on paper and in this field — if the 3YO daughter of Tapiture is ready in the 2nd start off the layup. Barn wins with .27% of those and she flashed a ton of speed in the comeback try on Oct. 11 at KEE. Tired in that one, but the cut-back in distance should help today, too. Gets a new rider for the first time. Interesting choice. Jockey is having a solid meet and a good year. My 2nd “Key Play of the Day” here, especially considering that the rail is producing .19% winners, too. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the “all button.”
8th: 11-8-12/2-5/6-7-9/3-10-4…Zoom Up (11) looks to be another from the Tom Amoss barn that has a big shot at cracking the winner’s circle today. This 2Yo daughter of Upstart ran very well on debut, finishing 3rd at KEE on Oct. 23. Ran right up to the leaders before hanging near the wire. Has returned to work well and the experience sure should help here. Rider has won with .14% in the last 22 mounts for this barn and the barn wins with .26% at the sprint distance. Choice. Abrogate (8) is another daughter of Outwork, and the connections paid $270,000 for this one. Has been working very nicely for a HOF trainer, who wins win .18% on the first try. Shot. Mine for Passion (12) does not draw the best spot for the first career start, but this one comes from a dam who has thrown 4 winners from 4 starters and has a Stakes winner, to boot. Sharp, sharp, sharp work on Nov. 7. Looks fast and ready. I bet the 11-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 11-12 over/under the 8-2-5-6-7-9 in two smaller units.
9th: 8-11-4/6-2-7-9/3-1-10…Perjury Trap (8) has not been out since July, but this 3YO son of Blame is trained by Chad Brown — who is winning at a .31% clip here this meet and .23% for the year in 658 mounts. On the grass = Chad Brown. Training well = Chad Brown. Churn N Burn (11) has run two very nice 2nds in a row and can flash either speed on the front or stalk and pounce from mid-pack. Rider has only won with .06% of the last 33 mounts for his father-in-law, though. Interesting. Mud Pie (4) returns as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .32% of those kind. Broke the maiden two races ago in real style at KY Downs. Look for more out of this one today — coming hard and coming late. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 8-4 over/under the 11-6-2-7-9-3 in two smaller versions.
10th: 2-8-5/1-3-7/4-10-9…Beauty Day (2) drops all the way to the $20,000 price category today after running a credible 4th at the $50,000 level last time out as the beaten favorite. Barn wins with .32% of those returning to the fray and with .50% of those dropping this much in one swoop. In 3 races here? Has a win and a third. My third “Key Play of the Day.” I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene