|Day Results||9 / 3-2-3|
|2020 Overall 1588||1588 / 560-539-685|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.26%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.45%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,029-1,588||64.80%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 76-119||63.87%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 39-119||32.77%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 17-8-1-3||47.06% Win / 70.59% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 214-77-45-30||35.98% Win / 71.03% ITM|
We rallied on Wednesday.
Nailed the winners of three of the last four races on the card — including our lone Key Play of the Day — to end the day with a 3-2-3 mark.
Had exactas that returned $3.10, $16.60, $10.20 and $30.30 for each $1 played, as well.
So, a so-so day that could have been so poor.
Let’s move on to Thursday, and let’s move up to a better winning percentage. Here’s our looks:
1st: 5-6-4/3-2/1…Stolen Beauty (5) is trained and owned by some great friends of mine. She is a whirlwind on the front end, too. Undoubtedly, she will be in front at the 1/8th pole, and the way the racetrack is playing these days that might be enough. In 3 starts here, she has a win and a second. But in 7 starts at this distance, she has only 1 win. She would love for this to be 5 furlongs. So would I. But she may be able to hold on at this level. Maybe. May be. Domonette (6) is owned by some great friends of mine, too, and they just so happen to own a filly with me and she is trained by the same guy that trains our top pick here. Keep it all in the family, sort of a thing. Domonette ran a very nice one here on Sept. 26 when dropping over to the main track. Has 2 seconds in 3 previous runs here. So, I go 2nd. Again. But I would take an exacta box and dead heat with the two top. Love them both. French Rose (4) has never won at Churchill Downs in 5 previous starts. Only has one second on the resume, too. Does have 3 thirds. But at this distance? Overall? Has a 1-1-1 mark in 3 starts. Drops in class for this one, and the last time this low of a price tag, she ran back-to-back solid races right here. Mixed signals, to be sure. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 5-6 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
2nd: 4-1-3/2…Rare Form (4) drops to a career low level today, and it truly was not that long ago (March of this year) that this one was in the G3 Hal Hope Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Now, he’s being offered up for $16,000. Has been tumbling down the claiming ladder for the last couple. Fire sale is on. But the 5YO son of The Factor surely figures in this group and should be tough to handle if he can make a soft lead. My pick. Pickford (1) was claimed two starts back for $20,000 and now pops into this one for $16,000. Won the start here two back when coming from a stalking position. Gets that same rider back in the irons today and in 4 starts here, he has a 2-1-0 mark. Will be tough at the wire. Street to Indy (3) drops to an all-time low price tag here, too. Trainer is having a super meet, winning at a .28% clip in 29 tries. This one won over this track in September for $32,000. Offered up for half that today. Rider has won with .40% of the last 5 mounts for this barn. Chance. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7/3-4-5-1/2…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Orencia (7). This 3YO Blame filly has run two thirds in a row and now drops another rung down the MCL order. Training session here on Nov. 12 was sharp, and this one comes from a barn that wins with .18% of its’ sprint races. Dam of this one has 4 winners from 6 starters and this one could join those ranks with a decent run here. Needs some space late. Maybe a rail trip? I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed above.
4th: 4-2-3/1-6/5…Hard to Be Good (4) comes from the barn of Tom Amoss, who is having another solid year — winning with .21% of the 451 starters to date. This one was claimed last time out at Indy Grand. Ran a tiring 3rd that day over the sod. Moves to the main track here and in 19 tries over a fast dirt surface? Has 6 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds. Could improve immensely here today. Harvey Wallbanger (2) is a Graded Stakes winner and in 4 previous tries here on this track? Has a win and 2 seconds. Never won at this distance though. Drops from the $40,000 tag to $25,000 today and has never been offered up for this low a price. That should help in his efforts, but he will be coming from the clouds. Has to be motivated a bit earlier than usual. Knight’s Cross (3) won the last time out here on Oct. 30 when claimed for $16,000. Bumps up today for the new barn, which wins with only .08% when racing for the first time off the new purchase. Has 2 wins and 2 seconds in 6 previous runs here and the rider is one of the best in the game today. Chance. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
5th: 3-7-1/4-2/5-6…Sharecropper (3) was claimed just two races back by one of the hottest barns in the country right now. Trainer is winning at a .23% clip here this meet, and has upped his yearly average to .20% in 1,213 starts. Wow. Drops in class for this one and back to the same level where he was claimed two starts ago. ran 2nd as the beaten favorite in that one. Rider has won with .23% of the last 47 mounts for this barn. One to beat, IMO. Indian Counselor (7) had some serious traffic issues in each of the last two, having to go wide into the lane. Does come from out of it, and that does present some traffic issues. But if this one can find a clear path some day? Look out. Barn only wins with .09% in the 3rd start off the layup. Hmmm. Box of Chocolates (1) is a horse where you just don’t know what you are going to get. Sorry. Just had to do it. Seriously, this one has raced here 5 times. Has 2 seconds and 2 thirds. Comes from the back and will face easier today than the last two. That should help. This is another one who could pop with the right trip. I bet the 3 to win/place/show. I box the top 3 in the exacta. I also key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
6th: 4-5-3/(13)-9-7-6-1-8/2-10-12-11…So Dialed In (4) is my first Longshot Special of the Day. This one is slated at 6-1 in the ML, but I think the 2YO gelding has a real shot. Has lost the first two tries by a total of 31/4 lengths. Been right there in both. Ships in from Monmouth Park for a trainer known for his ability to find the winner’s circle and the former conditioner of Catholic Boy. Love the rider choice here, too and the work pattern is solid. My pick. Storming Lion (5) was claimed last time out for $50,000 and now finds himself in for $150,000. Don’t be alarmed, though. This one nearly won the last out and the new barn operator knows what he’s doing. Puts the blinkers on today and wins with .17% of those. When moving up the claiming ladder this much? Wins with .29%. Big shot here. Mount Athos (3) is a first time starter for Nom Casse, and this young man knows what he’s doing. Training lights out. Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters. If this 2YO son of Sky Mesa breaks well? Look out. Love the 12-1 odds, too. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 9-7 in two smaller units. Keep an eye to see if the #13 draws in. I use if does.
7th: 4-1/6/3-2…Sequin (4) gets the blinkers back on today for a trainer who is winning with .40% this meet — 4 trips to the circle in 10 tries. Last time this one had the glasses was July of 2019 at Saratoga. Nearly won that day and was racing against a gal named Sharing. Know her? Almost won on the dirt at KEE last time out. Has speed. Can use it. Look out here. My second Key Play of the Day. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-1 in one exacta. I will key the 4 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed in a smaller unit.
8th: 2-7-6/1-5/4-3…Sir Alfred James (2) has raced here over the main track 3 previous times. Has won 2 of them. Comes in off a 4th here on Oct. 20, but had a funky trip that day. Gets a new rider for this one and will route for the first time. Barn wins with .17% of those stretching out for the first time and with .19% of those going from a sprint to a route distance. Has the breeding to make the circuit. Gun It (7) may be one of the most talented horses in the world to have won only 2 races. Is Graded Stakes placed twice. Comes with a run nearly every time. If the 4YO son of Tapit could ever figure out just when to switch leads in the stretch? Wow. Could be world class. Still may be. Look out here. Hembree (6) ran 3rd in a G2 last time out. But that was over a yielding turf course and this one has not been on the main track in quite some time. Barn does win with .20% when making this surface switch. But? May be a lot to ask here. In 2 tries over a fast dirt surface, has only a third to show. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
9th: 3-1-9/12/6-11-4-7…Deanos Cape (3) has tried to break the maiden 13 previous times. Still waiting. Still trying. Returns today as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .23% of those kind. Drops to a lowest price tag ever and should fit better with these. Barn winning at a .28% clip this meet and the rider has 2 wins in 5 tries for the outfit. Chance. Monte Ne (1) won at this level last time out, but was DQ’d for interference at the 1/16-pole. New rider selected here. Barn picks up the horse and wins with .15% of those that make the debut with the new connections. Big shot here. Sam Miguel (9) is 15-1 in the ML and may have a shot in the debut run. Trainer only wins with .05% of those making the first career start. But this one has trained OK and the dam has a winner from one starter. Like this one to have a chance at some nice odds. Longshot Special #2…I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 12 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene