|2019 Overall 1,354||1,354/473-490-609|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.93%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.70%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –889 of 1,354||64.66%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD Nov 106-163||65.03%|
|Top Selection Win / CD Nov 58-163||35.58%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD Nov 21/9-5-0||42.86%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 210-81-42-22||38.57%|
It was a spotty day at the ole’ ball yard on Wednesday. We hit the first two races on the card and things looked so promising. Then, we missed three in a row and reality set in. Then, we hit two of the next three and we were alive and feeling good in the massive Late Pick 5 carryover. Then, we missed the last two, and we were dead on arrival.
But we are geared up and ready for Thursday. Here’s a look at our selections:
1st: 2-1-1A/7-10-9/8-6-5…Campaign Spy (2) has not been out since Aug. 16, when the 3YO gelded son of Yes It’s True ran a distant last at Ellis Park. Basically, he was eased that day after pushing the pace in the first half. Barn has been working him back to the races in style, and the last two morning moves have been on point. Gets the regular rider back in the saddle. Goes for a career low level, and the barn hits with .36% of those that get this kind of class dump. Barn also scores with .30% of those returning as a beaten favorite, too. Adds up for me. Wallet (1) and A King’s Ransom (1A) are trained by the same guy and both have the same rider named. One is likely to scratch before PT, but I would prefer the former stay the course. Ran a huge one at this level last time out at KEE on Oct. 24. Nipped at the wire in that one. Was placed 3rd for a DQ. But that was this horse’s first race in 9 months. If he improves off that effort, watch out here. The latter drops considerably after a poor performance at Laurel Park on Sept. 21. Before that, though, ran much better over the sod in Virginia. Either would / should have a shot against these types. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-1 entry. I will key the 2-1 over/under the 7-10-9-8-6 in two smaller versions.
2nd: 3-8-4/1/2-5…Stolen Beauty (3) truly is a starlet, and is a heck of a story. I will tell that story in full detail once she wins, and she will win one of these days soon for my good friend and talented young trainer Stephen Lyster. Let’s just say that I will be rooting like crazy for this one today. She has speed to burn, and based on the numbers should make the lead in this one today. Gets a top rider to take the reins, and if he can milk her along the first part, she may be tough to catch at the wire. Indomitable Spirit (8) came back off a layup to run a respectable 5th last time out here on Oct. 30. Pushed the pace strong before tiring late. Was wide in that one, too. A better trip and better condition could make this one tougher today. Sweet Carli (4) ran a big one over the slop last time out here on Oct. 30. Gave it up late in that one, but has the speed to be a bit dangerous close to the front, too. Will be interesting to see if Jon Court rides today. Had a spill on Wednesday. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller versions.
3rd: 4-1/7-6-2/3…Colorincolonel (4) is a 5YO Colonel John mare who we touted the last time she ran. Unfortunately for us – and anyone that followed our lead – she simply didn’t fire a lick here on Nov. 9. Never really got into the mix. Ran 5th out of 6. Now, she is back. And, I will give her a pass, for whatever the reason. Toss that one out and she had two nice seconds in a row and had hit the board 6 of the previous 7 races. Had 2 thirds and 2 wins in that mix, as well. Barn hits with .17% of those returning as a beaten favorite. The rider is having a super meet. My choice. Kimberley Dream (1) ran off to be an easy winner here on Nov. 9. Our top choice was in that one, well off the winner. Kimberly hopped at the start and still hit the ground running. Ran them off their feet that day. Now has a 3-1-3 mark in 13 starts this year and has a 2-0-1 record in 5 previous runs here, too. Look for these two to renew their matchup today. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-1 in the exacta. I will key the 4-1 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
4th: 10-1-9/3-(14)-2/5-6-8…Elle M’a Souri (10) nearly pulled off the win last time out when racing over at KEE on Oct. 20. Came with a major rush in the stretch and just missed at the wire for the former Assistant Trainer to Chad Brown. Has worked really well here since that race (Nov. 9) and could be coming again in the stretch. Ground looked to help those that ran at the end on Wednesday. Watch out here. Trish the Dish (1) gets the best grass rider in all the land and this 3YO daughter of English Channel should be a handful late in the going, too. Has hit the board in 4 of the last 5 tries. Will need some racing luck late, but the winner of the race two back came right back to win again. Princesa Blanca (9) has raced 14 times in the career to date and is still found to be wanting. And, wishing. Does have 2 seconds and 4 thirds on the resume. Looked to be the winner last time out, but spit the bit hard and hung with the wire in sight. Gets a new rider today and that should / could be a huge, huge help. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-2 in two smaller versions. I include the 14 if she draws in, too.
5th: 1-7/9-4-6-(13)/3-(14)-5-10…This is a MCL event for the 2YO fillies and will be contested at the 7 furlong distance. I will give the edge to Italian Justice (1). This one drops down from the $30,000 price tag and the barn hits with .27% of those that fall this far in class in one swoop. Barn also hits with .21% of those that go from a sprint, to a route and then back to a sprint. Look to have things in good order last time until she tired late. Shortens up for this one, now. Barn hits with .31% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Look for this one to be a tough out here. Fight on Penn (7) comes from the barn of Steve Asmussen, who is battling it out with the trainer of our top pick for the leading trainer honors here. This 2YO daughter of Proud Citizen drops in class, too. Was claimed two races back for $16,000. Now in for $12,500. Barn’s go-to rider is up. Look for this one to give them a run today. West Coast Temple (14) is on the AE List, and doubtful to draw in. But if she does? I will be rooting for this daughter of Temple City. I love the horse that beat her last time out (blush). I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. I will box the 1-7 in two more, as well.
6th: 4-8-7/3-1/6-2…Pick Up the Fone (4) has run three straight 2nds, after breaking the maiden at Indy Grand back in July. Will get a new rider for the assignment today, and he will be the 4th different jockey in the 6th career race. In the first 5, this 2YO filly has a win and 3 seconds on the score sheet. Was claimed two back. Barn hits with .18% of those making the second start for the new barn operation. Barn also hits with .23% of those that return as a beaten favorite. Look for more today. Lil Miss Hot Mess (8) has faced some real good ones in her first 5 career races, to date. I can toss the grass Stakes event at KY Downs and she was way wide in the last out, too. Has some early gas and can be tough if she can get to the lead early on. Little Red Frog (7) won here on debut on Sept. 29. Made a huge move to leave the mid pack and soar to the front end. Barn hits with .27% of those racing in the claiming ranks, and with .22% of their 2YOs, too. The work here on Nov. 18 was spot on. New rider takes the reins. Interesting. Rider chooses Symphony Hall (1). That moves the 2YO Wicked Strong filly, now trained by Michelle Lovell, up for me. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the 4-8-1 (Take Note) in one exacta. I will key the 4-1 over/under the 7-3-6-2 in two smaller versions.
7th: 4-7-8/10-3-6-1/(12)-(15)-5-9…Infinite (4) came off a 7-month layup to nearly win the first race back on Oct. 19 at KEE. Led until the end, and before tiring. Held on for 3rd that day in a monster effort. Barn hits with .22% of those that make the 2nd start over the sod. Has a great pedigree for this surface, and gets a talented rider, who has shipped his tack from the West Coast to the best racing jurisdiction in the free world. Look for this one to run a lot better today. Declined (7) broke the maiden two races ago and then had a rough start in the last out. Never able to get untracked in that one. A toss for me. This one wants to either be on or near the lead. Look for a much better start with a new rider up here today. Barn hits with .20% of those making the 3rd start off a layoff. Uncapped (8) has been facing the toughest company out of all of these. Has been in 5 Stakes events this year. Ran third in a G3 event at KY Downs. Should enjoy the class relief here, and will be stalking from the get-go. Does have a 2nd in only previous try over this sod. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 4-8 over/under the 7-10-3-6-1 in two smaller versions.
8th: 3-8-7/2-5-1…Eastside Boy (3) was claimed two races back and immediately shifted to the grass. That experiment did not fare well, and now this 3YO gelding is back on the dirt and back at the same level that he ran at before. Prior to the grass try, this one had hit the board in 5 straight races and 7 of the last 8. Look for this one to be back in form with the return to his most favorite surface type here. Oro de Tejano (8) will get the saddle from Tom Amoss, who claimed this one three races ago. Ran behind our top pick last time out. Deep closer gets a new rider today, and that may help. Will need some racing room late. Cornstarch (7) has been running against tougher. Now, falls to the lowest level ever. Should relish this kind of company as opposed to the likes of Mr. Money – who he ran up against three starts back. Another deep closer. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 3 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
9th: 1A-7-1-9/2-8/3-4-5…Irish Mischief (1A) ran a huge one in the G2 Raven Run Stakes last time out. Ran second in the G3 Charles Town Oaks just three races ago, too. This one has faced some other tough ones, too, like Lady Apple. One of her favorite riders returns to the saddle today. Has just 2 wins in 10 starts, but does have 5 seconds and 1 third. She needs to win this one. Needs to. Summer Delivery (7) is a speedball that is likely to jump to an early lead with the meet’s top rider up. If she can clear and set reasonable fractions, she may prove tough to catch. Sire is having a great year. Barn hits with .31% of those that return as a beaten favorite. Annathela (9) is another veteran of the Stakes races in the past. Has a 3-4-1 record in 12 starts here, too. Won at KEE last time out. Looks good right now, too. Nice work on Nov. 15. I bet the 1A-9 acorss the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 1-1A over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller versions.
10th: 7-10-9-2-(1A)/(13)-(12)-1-6-3/8-5-(11)…The last race of the day is a turf event to be contested over the 11/16-mile course. I will go to the outside for my top 3 selections in here – led by Natural Power (7). This one is my Upset Special of the Day, too. The 2YO Irish-bred will be making the first start in NA today, and the new barn operator hits with .15% of those shippers and with .18% of the newcomers. The work here on Nov. 9 was super good. Interesting rider choice. Jockey is red hot this meet. Look for this one – at 8-1 ML odds – to be a real threat here. Epitomize (10) is coming in off a huge win in the career debut at Presque Isle. Now, he will convert to the grass for the first time. Has the look for a trainer that hits with .14% of those trying the lawn for the first time. Well bet in the first race, too. Street Ready (9) and Hieronymus (2), who is named after my great friend G.D. Hieronymus and the best videographer ever created, both figure to have a huge chance in here, too. I def use both of these, too. I bet the 7-10 across the board and then box the 7-10-2 in one exacta. I will key the 7-10-2 over/under the 9-1-6-3 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene