|2019 Overall 1,264||1,264/442-454-568|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.97%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.62%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –828 of 1,264||65.51%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD Nov 45-71||63.38%|
|Top Selection Win / CD Nov 26-71||36.62%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD Nov 14/7-3-0||50.00%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 203-79-40-22||38.92%|
We only managed a single winner in the 10 races carded on Thursday, but our top pick hit the board in 8 of the 10 races.
Finished with a betting flurry, though. Cashed the late Pick 3 on a .50-cent ticket that cost $8 total for a whopping $220 — thanks to my go-to longshot trainer in Lee Rossi, who won the 8th with a 69-1 shot.
Had the exacta in that 8th race, too, and it returned a whale, with the PT favorite underneath.
Looking for more returns like that on Thursday, as the rains have set in on Wednesday night. Look for the grass races to be moved to the main track. Look for a number of muddy scratches. And, look for some box car prices to hit, as well.
Here’s a look at our top picks for Thursday:
1st: 8-1/7-6-4/9-5-3…Niigon’s Glory (8) is a 9YO gelding and a horse that we have touted before this year. This one has not won a race since April and Oaklawn Park. But he catches a wet track on Thursday, and in 3 previous runs over an off-track, he has two wins and a third. Returns today as a beaten favorite, and the barn hits with .27% of those kind. Will run late, but may be spotted a little closer to the front in this group today. This is the 3rd start off a layup, and the barn hits with .21% of those kind, too. El Venue (1) has won two in a row, including a 6-furlong sprint over this track on Sept. 15. In 4 starts here, he has 2 wins. Has a second in two previous runs over an off track, too. Good right now and will sprint right to the front in this rail spot. Will be interesting to see if he can hold on the last 1/16th of a mile. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box those two solidly in one exacta. I will key the 8-1 over (only) the rest of the numbers in a much smaller version.
2nd: 4-5/6-1-2-3…Whereshetoldmetogo (4) rolls into this one for the barn of Brad Cox off a huge effort at KEE on Oct. 12. Came up a length short that day, as the odds-on favorite. Now, returns for a barn that scores with .31% of those coming back as the fan’s choice. Gets a new rider today. Has not won for this barn in 5 rides over the last 60 days. Should dial one up soon. Barn hits with .26% of those making the 3rd start off the layoff, too. My pick. Line Judge (5) will be making the second start for the new barn operation after being claimed. Trainer hits with .18% of those kind. Gets an interesting rider choice. Has won with .25% for this barn over the last 60 days. Rider is hot right now, too. Has 5-2-0 record in the last 13 mounts. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box those two numbers solidly in one exacta. I will key the 4-5 over (only) the rest of the numbers in a much smaller version.
3rd: 2-7-8/9/6…Charlie’sarchangel (2) has hit the board in each of the last two outings for a top barn operation. Won two races ago over the grass at Indy Grand. Moves to the dirt today, and the barn hits with .29% of them getting this surface switch. In 13 career starts, has just 2 wins, but has added 4 thirds to the resume, too. Should be coming late. Tizpure (7) is the 2-1 ML favorite, and should figure prominently in your handicapping and betting strategy here. This one has hit the board in each of the last 4 races and has a win in that mix. Has a win in two previous starts over an off-track, too. Barn hits with .21% of those in the claiming ranks. Should figure in this spot. Homefortheweekend (8) is another deep, deep closer and will need a pace scenario to set up for the late move. Has a win in 4 previous runs here, and get a top rider to take the reins today. Ran behind the second choice three starts back. Could team up again today. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I key the top 3 numbers over/under the 9-6 in two smaller versions.
4th: 2-7-6/5-1/8-4-3…Seek the Peak (2) didn’t fire a lick last time out. Now, gets a huge drop in class for this one today. This 3YO son of Curlin has a win over this track back in June. That came over the slop, too. Gets the meet’s top rider in the irons for the first time. Adds up for me. Like this one a lot. Passion Play (7) might improve a notch or two today, when he gets back to the route distance. Barn hits with .16% of those stretching out from a sprint the last time out. Won over the sod three races back. Figures with these kind. Tidal Effect (6) gets back to the barn of William Corey today. Last time in his charge, he ran a very nice second at Del Mar in November of 2018. Has been working lights out at the Churchill Downs Training Center, too. Chance. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 2 over/under all the numbers in two smaller versions.
5th: 4-8-1/5/3-11/2-(13)-10…Dancing Destroyer (4) is the 9-5 favorite in the ML, and there’s a reason. She looks the best. Has run a second and a third in the first two career starts, and this 2YO daughter of Jimmy Creed comes into this one off a monster work last time out. Gets a top rider back in the saddle. Young trainer knows how to find the winner’s circle and my money is on him and this one in here. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in this sequence.
6th: 2/7-5-8/10-9-6-3-1…My Key Play of the Day and Upset Special of the Day is combined in this event. It is originally scheduled to be played out at 5 furlongs over the sod. My guess and bet is that this one is converted to the main track. If it does, I go strong on Encinitas (2). This 4YO son of Union Rags has run all 8 of his previous races over the main track. Gets solid mud marks in the pedigree. And, has 4 seconds and 2 thirds in those previous races. Great work here on Oct. 29 and gets a top rider for the first time today. Adds up for me, and I love the 8-1 ML odds. Those odds could go down by PT, but I am on board. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed.
7th: 4-1/9/3-8/2-6-5…Senor Jobim (4) is a 5YO horse that is both trained and owned by HOF conditioner Steve Asmussen. Has a win and a second in 8 starts this year, but now drops to a career low price tag. Ran a huge one over the slop here in June. In 3 runs over an off track, he has a second and a third. Could be tough on an off-going against today. He’s No Bull (1) has a win and a second in 3 previous runs over an off track. Returns as a beaten favorite today, too, and the barn wins with a .21% clip with those kind. Claimed two starts back, and this trainer hits with .18% of those that make the second outing for the new connections. Love the work at the Churchill Downs Training Center on Oct. 18. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box those two in one exacta. I will key the 4-1 over/under the 9-3-8-2 in two smaller versions.
8th: 1A-6/7/4-1/5-2-3-8…Scars Are Cool (1A) is a 3YO son of Malibu Moon, and has a win and a third in the first 5 starts. Last two outs were against G1 company and a Stakes event over the sod. Gets back to more realistic terms today. Love the work here on Nov. 3. Barn hits at .20% with those getting this surface switch. And, the trainer scores with an amazing .42% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Wow. Has a third in two starts over an off track and has solid mud marks in the pedigree. Major factor. Hitch (6) has a win and a third in two previous tries over an off track. Last two were not good, but he did beat our top pick to break the maiden here back in June over a good track. Pushed the pace that day. Been off since late August. Barn can get prepared off the bench — with .20% mark. Work on Oct. 27 here was exceptional. Major threat. I bet the two top numbers across the board and then box them solidly in the exacta. I key the 1A-7 over/under the 7-4-1 in two smaller versions.
9th: 3-(11)/5-6-4/1-9-10-7…High Regard (3) is a 3YO filly by All Take Charge and a gal that I have watched for much of this year. Has a 1-1-1 record in 8 starts in 2019, but has faced some good ones. Ran 4th behind Street Band in the Indiana Oaks and then hooked some good ones at Del Mar after that in the G3 Torey Pines. Ran third in the G2 Golden Rod here last November. Has ability and gets the top rider on the grounds in the saddle. Has the most experience over the main track — which this turf race will likely be moved to, as well. Passionof the Nile (11) is entered for the Main Track Only. Likely to get her wish and run today. Stretches out to a route race for the first time since early June. Should like the extra distance. Has solid mud marks, especially one the dam side. Nice work pattern going in. Threat. I bet the 3-11 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 3-11 over/under the 5-6-4-1 in two smaller versions.
10th: 7-4/8-12/2-9-11/10-3…Slam Dunk (7) is coming out of a G1 Stakes race, where she ran a game third to a couple of nice ones. Was second the time before that at Saratoga. Keeping great company and looks to have a great shot to snap the maiden today in this spot. Switches over to a solid rider, who is on a tear here. Has a 5-2-0 record in the last 13 starts. Barn hits with .38% when making the route distance for a second time. And, the works on Nov. 2 and Oct. 24 were very nice. My Key Play of the Day. And, gets solid mud marks in the pedigree, too. I bet the 7 to win/place and then key the 7 over/under the rest of the numbers. I box the 7-4 solid in one other exacta.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene