Day Results 10 / 3-6-4
2020 Overall 1471 1471 / 518-495-623
Win % of Top Pick 35.22%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 37.07%
2020 Top Pick in the Money –954-1,471 64.86%
Top Selection ITM / CD 13-21 61.90%
Top Selections Win / CD 7-21 33.33%
“Key Horses” @ CD 1-0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2020 195-66-44-27 33.85% Win / 70.26% ITM

We journey up to Indy Grand on Wednesday to watch our fine filly, Diamond Solitaire, run in the Indiana Sire Stakes. We came home with a very nice 2nd to our arch rival, Hungarian Princess.

But?

We are so thrilled.

After all, Hungarian Princess’ only career loss was the to Stakes-winner Coach, who just impressed in the Rags to Riches Stakes at Churchill Downs for trainer Brad Cox.

And, after all, we truly want more distance of ground than the limiting 6 furlongs that we have been facing off at, so far. We came with a nice run on Wednesday. We pierced a hole on the rail that was needle deep and penny wide. We got mud kicked in our face. We had the worst of the worst trips could imagine.

And?

And, yet, we still rallied to run 2nd and finish less than 5 behind the easy-as-pie winner.

There’s one more Stakes for us up at Indy Grand the end of November. It is slated to be run at 1 mile and 70 yards. We are looking forward.

At the end of Wednesday, we had a 3-2-4 mark in the 10 races at Churchill Downs. We tallied a 3-6-4 mark at Indy Grand in its’ 10 races.

So, not a bad day. Not at all.

Here’s wanting more today, though:

Churchill Downs:

1st: 1-4/5-2/3…Fra Mauro (1) has only 3 wins in 21 lifetime starts for HOF trainer Steve Asmussen, but the 5YO son of Mizzen Mast has also tallied 6 seconds and 4 thirds in that span. Consistently close, if not a consistent winner. Has faced tougher than today and will be a little compromised with a lack of true pace here. Will have to make a run into the mud and little speed. Hmmmm. Does have a second and third over an “off track,” and has a win here, too. Beaver Hat (4) finished behind our top pick last time out at KEE. Has only 1 win in 12 starts, so eligible for other conditions than here. Has more speed than the top pick, but not as accomplished. Does have a second in only try over an “off track,” and a third here, too. Chance. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 1 under/over the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.

2nd: 7-1-6/5-4/3…Scratch 5…A rather weak lot bunch up in the gate for this 6-furlong MCL event for the fillies and mares. Not much to chat up about here, but I will finally land on the outside of the entries — Tizso Awesome (7). This 3YO daughter of Awesome Again is from a Stakes-winning dam, who has thrown 4 winners from 8 starters. Top side is OK on the mud, but the bottom is a little weak for me. Will make the first start for a new barn operation today, and it wins with .18% of those kind. Will be the 3rd start off the layup, too, and that should assist the efforts. Most of all, will drop into the claiming ranks for the first time and face the weakest group she has ever eye-balled. Barn wins with .15% of those. Worth a shot here. Red Bottom Rebel (1) has only made one career start to date, and it was over the turf at Indy Grand. Moves to the dirt and the MCL ranks both. Barn wins with .20% on this kind of drop. Works are good enough, but must show more at race time. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7-1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.

3rd: 7/2-5/8/6…This is a MCL event at the $15,000 level for the 3YOs, and I will go to the outside and saddle up with the Diodoro Special — Tactician (7). This 3YO gelded son of Tapit ran over the slop against much, much better last time out at Saratoga. Ran on or close to the lead for the first half, before fading to 4th. Drops for half the price tag today and faces a much easier task here. Work at Ellis Park on Oct. 17 was spot on and the barn’s go-to rider is up. Barn wins with .30% when the blinkers come off and with .30% when dropping this much at once. My first Key Play of the Day. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under the numbers listed.

4th: 4/2-8/1-3-6/7-5…Overzealous (4) may be the perfect term for my enthusiasm and excitement for this one’s chances today. But the 6YO son of Candy Ride looks perfectly situated for a huge performance in this spot today. In 6 runs over an “off track,” this one has 2 wins and 4 seconds. And, the only two “poor performances” over the last 10 starts, there are legit excuses. Two back, was steadied hard when running over the turf at KY Downs. Back in May, when running here, he was checked hard throughout the entire first turn. This one will be running at the end. Will need some luck. But has a solid rider in the irons and the barn wins with .22% of those returning as a beaten favorite, too. My solid pick and my 2nd Key Play of the Day. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-2-8 in one exacta. I will key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.

5th: 8-9-10/4-5-7/12-3…Scratch 1…Not a bad field of evenly-matched competitors have lined up in this MCL event for the 2YOs. Price tag of just $15,000 should spark some interest here at the claim box. To be sure. I will give the edge to Copley (8), who was favored last time out for the $40,000 tag and run a tiring 5th at KEE on Oct. 10. Set the early fractions then. Just couldn’t hold. Race before, this one sparred with Essential Quality. Wow. Now a drop to this level? Barn wins with .41% when dropping this much and with .27% when racing a beaten favorite. Wok on Oct. 2 was spot on. My pick. Payster (9) was claimed last time out for $30,000. Shows up today for $15,000. Need a bigger truck. But the barn wins with .35% when dropping off the claim and with .23% when losing the blinkers, too. Should be another forward presence here. At least for awhile. Sir Acealot (10) comes from the red hot barn of Brad Cox. Ran 2nd at the $20,000 tag last time out. Chance. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top two numbers over/under the 10-4-5-7-12 in two smaller units.

6th: 1-4-2/6-3/5-7…Scratch 6…Looks kind of like a “trap” race to me. The best horse in the field, on the resume side, is Attachment Rate (1). The 3YO son of Hard Spun has won nearly $150,000; broke the maiden over the slop by over 6 lengths; and is Graded Stakes placed. Ran 2nd to Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby, too. But? Has not been out since a disappointing 14th in the G1 Kentucky Derby and the works coming back are modest. Barn does win with .14% of those coming off this kind of a layup, but this one needs some speed to run at, and I’m not sure there’s enough to set it up perfectly for him. Hmmm. Guided Missile (4), on the other hand, is coming off a win in the debut here on Sept. 26. Gets a new trainer now and the barn wins with .20% when going from a sprint to a route event. Working lights out. Looks like an aspiring type with a bright future. After all? A son of Tapit, with all the right parts still attached. Hmmmm. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 2-6-3-5-7 in two smaller units.

7th: 1-6-2/9-14-12/7-5…OFF TURF…Scratch 4-8-13…This event has now been moved to the main track and I will saddle up with the inside post — Train to Artemus (1). Must break well to have a shot here, but this 2YO daughter of Tapizar as speed and flashed it on debut at KY Downs. Tough place to win there at first ask, and the runner-up came right back to win the next out. Has enough mud marks in the pedigree to run off here, too. My pick. Impeach Me (6) is a 2YO daughter of Speightstown and she will be making the debut for the top barn operation of Tom Amoss. Has been working light out here and the barn wins with .20% on debut. Rider has done well for this operation, too, winning at a .15% clip in the last 20 mounts. Chance. Cuzzywuzzy (2) seems to be right there every time. Has a nice mud mark in the pedigree and gets a new rider for this effort. Can’t dismiss. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed. I will box the 1-6-2-9 in a smaller version.

8th: 3-6/1-2/7…Scratch 4-5…Interesting field of study here, but I will go with the known quantity in Club Car (3). This one has a 2-1-2 mark here at Churchill Downs, and broke the maiden here over the slop last October. Just ran a nice 2nd to Risky Mandate at KEE and should be coming late, if there is enough speed to top off the front end. Zusha (6) very well may be the best quality in the field. Has been running in a ton of Graded Stakes events on the West Coast. But will make the first start East of the Mississippi today and the record is spotty over an “off track.” Is a stalker type, too, and may need some pace to run at, as well. Love the work at Santa Anita on Oct. 17. Barn wins with .26% of them shipping in. I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 3-6 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.

9th: 3-10/7-5/8-11-1A…OFF TURF…Scratch 2-4-12-13-14…This marathon run is now off the sod and on the main track. I will go with Sharecropper (3), who will be making his first start for a new barn operation after being claimed last time out. Barn wins with .16% of those that are debuting for the new trainer and this one ran a very nice 2nd over the dirt at KEE last out. Barn wins with .24% of those returning as a beaten favorite, too. My solid choice here, with a new rider taking the reins. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.

10th: 7-5-4/6-3-1-12/13…New Eagle (7) has not run a lick in any of the last three outings, but drops considerably for this effort today. Barn wins with .25% when dropping this much at once, and with .20% when going from a sprint to a route distance. Gets a top rider who won with this one here in June. Work on Oct. 25 was spot on. Look for more out of this one at a square price. Baozun (5) ran well at Indy Grand last time out and won three races back. In two starts here, has a win and is a perfect 2-for-2 over an “off track.” The one to beat, IMO. I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7-5 over/under the 4-6-3-1-12 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene