|Total Day Results||10 / 4-3-5|
|2021 Overall 1,399||1399 / 532-494-675|
|Win % of Top Pick||38.03%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.82%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 947-1,399||67.69%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / KY Downs 39-63||61.91%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / KY Downs 24-63||38.10%|
|“Key Horses” @ KY Downs 6/3-1-0||50.00% Win / 66.67% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 209/ 93-48-21||44.50% Win / 77.51% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ KY Downs 19/ 2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (9-8-21) 11/3-0-0||27.27% Win / 27.27% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
The races finally return to the greatest racecourse in the human race, of course. Thursday night, at the twilight’s last gleaming, we will embark on the annual September race meet. And, it promises to be a grand one. Can’t wait to get back home.
Here’s our picks for Thursday night. Hope we kick it off right.
1st: 3-6/5-7/4-10/2-1…Blonde On Tap (3) will get my nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the home of the Kentucky Derby. This 3YO Tapiture filly gets the first start for a new trainer and the first outing since February of this year. Long time between drinks of water. But this barn can get them ready off the bench and the work pattern has been promising. Drops from the $30,000 tag all the way to the $10,000 limit here. Has 3 seconds and a third in the first 6 starts. If she is anywhere close to her old form? Watch out. Speed Zone (6) goes for the top barn operation of Tom Amoss, who is winning at a near-20% clip this year in 404 starts. Comes in off a 2nd last time out. Gets a rider who does well for this barn and rates a shot. I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-6 over/under the 5-7-4-10-2-1 in two smaller units.
2nd: 5-7-4/1/3-6-2…Coinmaker (5) drops from the $30,000 tag and moves back to the dirt for this encounter. Should appreciate both of those moves. This 4YO daughter of Goldencents didn’t fire a lick at KY Downs, but many don’t take to the hills and dales. Returns to a track where she has a 2nd in two previous tries. Bertrada (7) is the heavy ML favorite, and she figures, to be sure. Will ship in from racing in Ohio, but is stabled at the Spectrum for a trainer having a solid year. Work on Sept. 10 was spot on In 6 tries at this distance? A win and 3 seconds / 1 third. Strong. Ambitiously Placed (4) goes for a trainer new to these parts. Ships in from Prairie Meadows. But the barn has won with .19% of 305 starters this year and this one has hit the board in the last 5 outings and 7 of the last 8. Wow numbers. I bet the 5-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7/1A-6/3-5-8/2-1/4…Family Man (7) is our first “Key Play of the Day.” This 4YO gelding has only raced three times in the career — all this year — and has two wins and a third on the resume. Comes off a distant 3rd last time out, but that was stretching out to the route distance for the first time. Won the first two outings with ease and one of those was over this track surface. Gets a rider who has won on this one before, too. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under the rest of the numbers. More with the 1A-6-3-5-8 than the rest.
4th: 4-5-3/7-10/1-9/6-8/2…Pledgeofallegiance (4) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barns with .17% of those kind. Has run here 5 times in the past and has only a second and two thirds. But? In only time at this distance, has a 2nd. Gets a veteran rider up and may improve with the stretch out to a route again. That is where this one ran so well here last November. Centurion (5) is my first “Longshot Special of the Meet.” This one is a 4YO son of Pioneerof the Nile and will race for the first time as a gelding and the first time for the new barn operator. New trainer wins with .25% in the first try after a claim purchase and that is with 528 runners. Should improve with the move to the dirt, too. Love the race two back. If he can hunt ground late like that? Look out. Honky Tonk Hero (3) is a 3YO son of Ghostzapper, and this one will make the career debut here. Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and a Stakes-winner on the ground. Rider has teamed up with this trainer to go 3-1-2 in the last 11 races together and has won with .27% fo the last 52 mounts. Works are good enough to suggest that he will have a shot here. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7-10 in two smaller units.
5th: 1-4-2/9-5-6-10/8-12/3-11…Cogburn (1) gets the top bill in this 6-furlong MSW event for the 2YOs. Son of Not This Time ran 4th on debut at Saratoga. Gassed it on the front end that day and ran out at the wire. Cuts back in distance and should be fitter for this one. Works are spot on. Son of a Stakes-winning dam, too. Pedigree and talent. Good combo. Almanzo (4) is one of the best bred 2YOs to come along this year. Son of Tapit. Enough written there. Son of Stakes-placed Ghostzapper mare American Story. Top runner and the dam has produced 3 winners from 4 starters and 2 Stakes winners. Training well. Look out. Just look out. Andy Cant (2) is another first timer and goes for a HOF training operation. Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and this one has been training well, too. Could throw a wrench into the plans. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 2 numbers over (only) the 2-9-5-6-10 in a smaller unit.
6th: 1-3-8/4-6-7/2-5/9…Name Rejected (1) is my next “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one is listed at 8-1 in the ML, by my good friends over at brisnet.com. This 3YO son of Munnings comes in off a 4th at Arlington when running over the turf for the first time. Gets back to the dirt here, and will be the 3rd start off a layup. Barn wins with .27% of those kind. Off from April, but before that, this one had hit the board in 6 straight against the tough ones at Oaklawn Park. If he can find that form again. Look out. Bears Watching (3) is the ML favorite, and should figure strong here for the HOF trainer. Has a nice closing 3rd and a run-away win in only two starts to date. Comes from great connections. But? Has not raced since March 13. If you are going to catch this one a bit short? Might be tonight at a low price on the board. But he looks the part on paper. Must use, for me. Schmoozin (8) is another longshot possibility. Returns as a beaten favorite here, and the barn wins with .11% of those kind. Has raced here twice before and has a second and a third. Will be motoring late and will need racing room and luck. Could grab part. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 4-6-7 in a smaller unit.
7th: 3-5/6-8/4-7/1-2…The featured race of the night and I line up with Singita Dreams (3). This 5YO mare comes in off three nice runnings in a row and has hit the board in 4 of the last 5. Last time out, this one just edged at the wire of a 1-mile dirt run. In 7 starts here? A win with 2 seconds and 2 thirds on the belt. Works are solid. Could come running here at a square price. But the owners bet big here. If the odds board lights up? Take note. Powder River (5) has been off since early June, but was running pretty well before she went on the shelf. Barn wins with .14% when returning from this type of a vacation. Could be sharp and raring to go. Won here on April 30 off a layup. Closer with a mission. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units. More with the 6-8 than the rest.
8th: 9-11/2-8/4-10/(13)-5-6-7/1…The night’s finale, and I saddle up with Dance On Over (9), who hails from the barn of Tom Amoss. Drops all the way from the $30,000 tag to the $10,000 level here. Just 3 starts ago, broke the maiden for over twice that amount. Work on Aug. 25 was spot on. Barn’s go-to rider gets the leg up. This one has a 2nd in two starts at this distance and the barn wins with .36% when dropping this much at one time. Love the 8-1 ML odds. My last “Longshot Special of the Night.” I will use Mama Lou (11) in this spot, as well. This one ships in from Arlington Park and will get back to the same dirt where she ran a 2nd here this Spring. Works good. Jockey is top notch. Trainer is winning at .18% clip after 91 starts this year. Won last time out and the barn wins with .18% when moving up to face winners for the first time. Adds up. I bet the 9-11 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 9-11 over/under the 2-8-4-10-5-6-7 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene