Day Results 10 / 2-5-2
2020 Overall 1181 1181 / 420-390-481
Win % of Top Pick 35.56%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.44%
2020 Top Pick in the Money –766-1,181 64.86%
Top Selection ITM / CD 47-65 72.34%
Top Selections Win / CD 24-65 36.92%
Top Selection ITM / KY Downs 36-63 57.14%
Top Selections Win / KY Downs — 18-63 28.57%
“Key Horses” @ CD 10-3-3-2 30.00% Win / 80.00% ITM
“Key Horses” @ KY Downs 9-3-2-2 33.33% Win / 77.78% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2020 161-54-37-23 33.54% Win / 70.81% ITM

We finished up the year’s KY Downs meet with a whimper more than a whip. But we managed to make a few waves here and there.

Despite the fact that we managed only two true winners on the Wednesday closing card, we did cash for exactas that returned $22.90, $55.40, $30.50, $3.60, $19.40 and $8.20 for each $1 played.

Like all meet, it was the exotics that managed to keep us afloat and paddling for more action.

Now, we move on home — to Churchill Downs.

Here’s our look at the Churchill Downs’ card on Thursday:

1st: 2-3/6-1…Shackleford County (2) drops to a career low price tag today after running a game third at twice this level last time out. In 6 races over this main track before, the 5YO mare has a win and a third. Barn wins with .25% of those dropping this much at once and the barn’s go-to rider gets the irons. Chance. Queenofcatniphill (3) goes for a high percentage trainer, who scores with .30% of those that run in the claiming ranks. Gets a rider who has experience here, and has won with .25% for this barn operator. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta.  I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 6-1 in two smaller units.

2nd: 4/6-3-1/2-5…The first Key Play of the Day and the Meet comes right here with Wild Love (4). This 3YO Candy Ride filly is 4-5 in the ML odds books and is sure to be the PT favorite. Has a 2nd in the last start at Saratoga and won the race before here. Trainer is having a solid year and the rider knows the operation very well. Look at the work at Saratoga on Sept. 8. Spot on. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in two exactas.

3rd: 3-7-4/5-6-1/2…Holly Blame (3) went to the turf last time out and that experiment did’t work and didn’t last. Gets back to the main track today, and that should assist this one in his efforts. Won over the slop at KEE two starts back. Has a win and a third in 5 starts here. Threat. Bitumen (7) goes for a barn operator that has won with .22% of 910 starters this year. Has a win in 10 starts here in the 1-week affair. But does have 4 seconds and 2 thirds to add to the resume. Nice rider switch and the barn wins with .25% in the first start after the purchase. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 3-7 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.

4th: 1-5/8-9-2/3-6-4…Fixico (1) is a 3YO son of Union Rags and will drop to the near-bottom of the claiming ranks here. Has two 4th place finishes against much better and gets the Lasix for the first time today. Barn wins with .28% of the 205 runners this year, and with .40% getting the anti-bleeder for the first time. Looks primed here after a bullet workout on Sept. 7 at Arlington Park. My pick. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-5 in one exacta. I will key the 1-5 over/under all the numbers listed above in two smaller units.

5th: 1-6-2/(12)-(13)-7/10-9-3/4-5-11…Great Island (1) could make it back #1s in this spot. The 4YO Scat Daddy filly will be making the 2020 debut and 2nd career start today. Works are spot on and the trainer knows how to get them ready — at any time. Top rider up. Look out here as the beaten favorite returns. Barn has gone 5-4-2 in the last 14 starts. Hard to beat. Regal Passage (6) could spice up the odds rack a bit here. This 3YO daughter of Violence ran a solid race on debut at KEE last October. Been off ever since. But the works are solid and the barn is coming along nicely. Rider has had a super nice summer. Chance. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-6-2 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 12-13, if they draw in from the AE List. If not? I key the top 3 over/under the 7. I also key the 1 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units.

6th: 1/5-3-4/2-7-9-8/6-10-12…Littlestitious (1) could be the third straight #1 to win on this card. This 2YO daughter of Ghostzapper has been facing solid competition and the winner of the debut race just came back and won impressively again for trainer Brad Cox at Indy Grand. Works are solid. Barn wins with .29% of those returning as beaten favorites. Looks solid in this spot. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. 

7th: 7-2/5-4-3-1/6…My Man Flintstone (7) moves back to the dirt after a debacle on the sod at Saratoga last time out. Two races before, though, were both on the main track and both times this 3YO son of Into Mischief was a solid second. Has worked well for this one and gets a top dirt rider up for the try. Only win came over a AW surface. Chink in armor. But the trainer hits with .17% of those returning as a beaten favorite and with .20% overall in the claiming ranks. Hang on. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-2 in the exacta. I will key the 7-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in the exotics.

8th: 7-2-5/9/4-6/3-8…Front Man (7) is under a gag order after moving to the grass three starts back. Gets better and better each time out. Work on Sept. 4 here was super nice Rider knows how to find this winner’s circle and the barn wins with .37% of those coming back as a beaten favorite. My pick. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 9 in two smaller units.

9th: 13-12/10-8/11-1/5-6-7-9…Decade (13) is parked on the AE List and needs a little luck to just get in the starting gate today. But if the 2YO California Chrome filly draws in, watch out. Lost by a nose in the debut. Has worked good in the past. Goes for a top barn operator, who has won with .18% of the 1,548 runners this year. Adds up for me. Montgomery Park (12) is returning to the starting gate after a 3rd at Ellis Park in the debut run. Bumped at the start of that one and lost some momentum in the early going. Looks ready to improve. I bet the 13 if she draws in from the AE List. If not? I go with the 12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers either way. I will key the 12-10-8 over/under the 11-1 in two smaller units. If the 13 does get in, I will key the 13-12.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene