Total Day Results 10 / 2-5-1
2021 Overall 1,438 1438 / 544-508-687
Win % of Top Pick 37.83%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 40.31%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 972-1,438 67.59%
2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 25-39 64.10%
2021 Top Selections Win / CD 12-39 30.77%
“Key Horses” @ CD 4/2-0-1 50.00% Win / 75.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 213/ 95-48-22 44.60% Win / 77.46% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ CD 6/0-1-2 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (9-8-21) 11/3-0-0 27.27% Win / 27.27% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Ky Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM

We are back for another week of great racing at Churchill Downs in the abbreviated September meet. Cooler temps. Hotter the tips. Right? I just made that up.

Here’s our looks for Thursday night’s Twilight Card:

1st: 8/6-2-3/7-5/4…The first ”Key Play of the Day” comes in the very first race — which we like to call the ole’ lid-lifter — at the big oval in Lou Lou. Tap Attack (8) goes for one of my most favorite trainers in the whole wide world and a lady that does things the right way for all the right reasons. This son of Candy Ride goes for the same ownership group that won the LTS Stakes on Saturday. Drops from the $25,000 level all the way to the $10,000 tag here, and ran OK to be third last time against tougher. Barn wins with .29% when dropping this much at one time. Rider who was up on Saturday night to give Just Might the win, returns here. In 9 career starts, this one has been close — 3 seconds and 2 thirds. Graduation night? Hope so. I bet the 8 to win/place and then key the 8 over/under the rest of the numbers listed. More with the 6-2-3 than the rest.

2nd: 1-3-5/6/4-2/7…Convection (1) gets the strong lean in this tilt. this 3YO son of Commissioner was purchased at the KEE September Yearling Sale in 2019 for $80,000. That was the 2nd highest price progeny of that sire and 29 were offered up. Didn’t make the first start until this April. Won the first two outings. Has struggled in the last two and drops all the way to a $20,000 tag here. Worth a shot. If he is anywhere close to the horse that started the year. Carbon Stryker (3) is a Texas-bred who ran a good one down in Louisiana last time out. That was against open company and he nearly pulled off the win. If he can flash the same tenacity against these kind? Chance. Petit Verdot (5) spit the bit last time out when running over the hills and dales of KY Downs. Returns to the dirt where he has done his best running, to date. In 5 tries over a fast main track, this one has a 1-1-2 mark. Legit chance if the rider can find his groove again. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

3rd: 8-6/5-4-7/1-3/2-9…Madam Pie (8) goes for one of the best young trainers in this game and one of the better people. Off to a great start here this meet and this one will make the first start since May. Deep, deep closer may be compromised by the track’s early speed bias, but the drop in class here may be enough to make up for it and more. Barn wins with .60% when dropping this much at one time. That is 6 wins in the last 10 that got this kind of class drop. Wins with .30% when going from turf to dirt. And? Wins with .22% when returning off this kind of a layup. I’m in. Sold. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the 8-6 in the exactas. I go sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 8-6 over/under the 5-4-7-1-3 in two smaller units.

4th: 8-11/1-9-10-7/5-3-2/4-6…The third #8 in the first 4 races. Wow. Crazy 8s. Implosion (8) will make the 2nd career start for a barn that wins with .13% on the second ask. Daughter of Not This Time ran well before tiring in the last out and the rider has been hot of late, winning at a .25% rate this meet. Sharp, sharp work here on Sept. 16. Look out. Shotgun Hottie (11) goes for a chilly barn operation, but not to worry. This guy knows how to win races. And, he ain’t forgotten how. This will be a first time starter by Gun Runner — and by now we all know what kind of start this guy has had with his first crop of runners that gun it. Works are super good. Sire wins with .32% on first ask. Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters. Trainer wins with .25% in sprints. Meet’s hottest and best rider up. Enough. I bet the 8-11 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-11 over/under the 1-9-10-7-5 in two smaller units.

5th: 2-8-1/4/3-5-7/6-9…Gimme Some Mo (2) just does edge out another #8 for my top billing here. this 4YO son of Uncle Mo was claimed last time out for $25,000 up at “The Spa.” Wheels right back for basically the same price point and a barn that wins with a whopping .25% in the first start off a claim purchase. This will be the 3rd start off a layup, and the barn wins with .23% of those kind, too. Barn’s go-to rider takes the reins. Look out. Just a Irish Lad (8) ran over the slop last time out and that seemed to compromise this one’s chances a bit. The fact that he went into the Stater Allowance ranks for the first time probably factored into that equation, as well. But this one does have 2 wins in 3 starts and one of those came right here. Over this main track. Serious. Cave Hill (1) drops from running in Stakes company just two starts ago to the $30,000 asking price here. Won the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park in March over the AW surface. Now will return to the main track for just the 2nd time. The winner of the last race is a good one. Don’t discount this one’s chances on the wheel-back. I bet the 2-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4 in two smaller units.

6th: 4-2-5/7-(1A)-6-10/1-8-9/11/3-12…Condemn (4) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day,” and I love this 2YO son of Medaglia d’Oro, who will get the saddle from my man, Tommy Drury. This one ran 2nd by a snicker in the last out and the “Show” horse that day came right back to win the next outing. This one is training lights out. Barn wins with .22% when routing for the first time Look out here. Look out. Commander Compton (2) ran a huge one coming late in the proceedings at Saratoga. Just nipped at the wire when running out of late room. Rail wins with .23% rate this meet and the trainer wins with .22% when starting a 2YO. Gets the meet’s top jockey in the irons. Look out II. Ignitis (5) is in the town of Johnny Unites made his “Glory Days.” This 3YO son of Nyquist has never missed the board and has run two super 2nds in a row. Last time out, nearly beat Mac’s Time. Actually stuck his head in front only to be out-bid again at the wire. Rider change here does not hurt in any way. Look out III. I bet the 4-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4-2 over/under the 5-7-entry-6-10 in two smaller units.

7th: 7/1-4-8/5-9/2-6…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Reagan’s Edge (7). After all? This is the #7 in the 7th race, and we always bet that, correct? Well, we do when the horse and its’ numbers add up to “v-i-c-t-o-r-y.” This 4YO filly has raced here two previous times with a win and a third. In 9 lifetime tries, the record is 2-3-2 and this one has two 2nds behind the likes of Frank’s Rockette in Graded Stakes company. Wow. Gets the meet’s top rider for the 2nd time. Combined to be 3rd just two starts ago after a very rocky and bumpy road to start the race. Works are spot on coming in. I’m all in here. Can rate. Can chase. Can close. Can win. I bet the 7 across the board and then key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. I use more with the 1-4-8-5 than the rest.

8th: 10/2-4-11-6-8-9/3/5-7/1…The final race of the evening is a 6.5-furlong test for the 2YO fillies and at the MSW level. I go with my last “Key Play of the Day” — Bhoma (10). This daughter of Bernardini goes for the first time since late May and just the 2nd time in the career. Barn wins with only .09% off the bench and with .11% in the MSW ranks. But? this one nearly won the debut in a ding-dong finish and this one has the real ability to come back stronger and tougher here. Gets a top rider, who wins with .11% of the last 28 mounts for this barn. Well, well bet on debut, and this trainer not known for winning first outs, either. Love the work at KEE on Sept. 4. Spot on. I bet the 10 across the board and then key the 10 over/under the 2-4-11-6-8-9-3 in two exactas. Double down on top of the 2-4-11-6-8-9 — one more time. For good measure. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene