McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on Thursday, Sept. 28

Stats Are Completely Updated

Sorry we missed Churchill Downs’ Wednesday matinee. We were in bed. All day long. Most of the time at the hospital. Since returning from Nashville, after a fun-filled weekend listening to great music, I got blind-sided by a nasty helmet-to-helmet hit with COVID.

If anyone suggests to you that this “version” is not nearly as tough or hard on you?

Kick them in the gelding area hard, just for me.

We are back at the desk for a few minutes to get to tonight’s card and then back to the bed.

Here’s our picks, just as they are:

1st: 5/1/2-6/4-3 (7 scratched)…My top pick scratched out of this affair, but we will ante up with Malibu Smart (5) in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louis-Town. This 3YO English Channel filly should be able to handle the off going, if the sealed track is still a bit off tonight for the 5 p.m. Twilight Thursday card. This one was claimed last time out and was pulled up in that affair. Has worked well since the layoff from June and goes for a top trainer, who has won with .32% of 197 starters this year. Look no further, for me. I bet the 5 across the board and double down on the win wager here. I will key the 5 over/under the 1-2-6-4-3 in the exactas. More with the 1 than the rest. 

2nd: 5/1-7-4/2//3-6…The first Key Play of the Night comes here with Jackie’s Spirit (5). This 3Yo daughter of Uncultured drops to the same level that she ran here back in May. Was a near-miss 2nd in that one. Rider is 0-for-12 this meet and not having the greatest of years, either. But this one may be able to get this one to the winner’s circle. Has 2 runner-ups in 2 previous tries here. I bet the 5 across the board and then key the 5 over/under the 1-7-4-2 in the exactas. 

3rd: 3/2-1-4/6 (5 scratched)…My top pick here was scratched at early post time, too. That leaves me with another single on the “A” picks with Hashtag Winner (3). This 6YO mare has raced here 12 previous times. Has a 2-1-1 mark to her credit and comes in with having hit the board in 3 of the last 4 outings, with a 4th in the last try. Will stretch back out to a route here and that should help this one a lot. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 3 over/under the 2-1-4-6 in the exactas. 

4th: 13-15/7/10-3-4-5/1/8-11 (Off Turf — 26-12-14-16 scratched)…This was originally scheduled for the sod and going just 5 furlongs for the 2YO fillies. Now, with the rains of late, this one is moved to the main track. I go to the far outside here and line up with two from the original AE List. My top pick is Toasted Roll (13). This daughter of Frosted has a race under her girth and switches to the Commonwealth’s best Thoroughbred rider for this occasion. Rider has teamed up with the trainer to go 2-2-0 in the last 6 outs. Working well here over the dirt. Looks ready. Neon Beach (15) ran over a troubled sod course up at Sarasota back in July. Was right in the mix until the finish and still was beaten only 2 lengths. Sire was tremendous runner at all distances and should be able to pop a sprinter here. Last work on Sept. 25 was spot on. I bet the 13-15 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 13-15 over/under the 7-10-3-4-5-1 in two smaller units. 

5th: 6-1/4/3-2/5…Rivalry (6) is the ML favorite and deserves to be so. Comes in for trainer Brad Cox, who is winning at a .31% clip after 35 starters this meet. This one could had to the tally. Switches to a rider who had great success for this barn at Ellis Park this summer and has won with .39% of the last 31 for this barn. My choice. Mount Craig (1) looks to have speed and could get the jump on these from the inside. Raced well at Saratoga this summer, but still a maiden after 9 starts. Does have 3 seconds and 4 more thirds on the resume. One of these days. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-1 in the exactas. I will key the 6-1 over/under the 4-3-2-5 in two smaller units. More with the 4 than the others. 

6th: 6-7/3-5/4/2…(1 scratched)…Tricolour (6) gets the nod here. This 4YO gelding has not travelled well over the sod in the last two. Gets back to the dirt here and the blinkers come off. Has hit the board in 6 of 10 on the fast dirt surface in the past. Go Cats (7) gets back to the dirt here, as well. Has 2 previous tries over this surface, with a 3rd on the resume. Drops back into the claiming ranks and is offered up for an all-time low price. Drop should assist the cause. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-7 in the exactas. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 3-5-4-2 in two smaller units. 

7th: 6-4-5/1//2…(3 scratched)…This is a very nice race to headline the evening card. Very nice. I go with Twilight Blue (6), who will be making his first start of the year and first since August of 2022. Over 13 months on the sidelines. Hard to get one ready off that type of layoff, but this barn can do it and, more importantly, this horse HAS done it in the past. Working well. Has raced here five times in the past with 3 wins and 2 seconds. Loves it here. Looks ready. Kittansett (4) could spice up this race, with an 8-1 ML odds line. I can toss the last one and look at the fact that this one has raced over the dirt 8 times with 3 wins. Over the “off dirt” once before, with a win. And, has a win here. Look out. Dash Attack (5) and King Fury (1) both could win here, too, for trainer Ken McPeek — who is winning at a .16% rate this meet after 25 starts. Both of these veterans have ability. The former loves an “off going.” Has raced over it 6 times with 4 wins. If the track is “off,” I have to include. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller units. 

8th: 10-14/8/11/4-6…(1-2-3-5-7-9-12-13 scratched)…This was originally scheduled for the sod, and since there is no turf racing tonight then there were a ton of scratches. I go with He’s Got Swagger (10). Has a win in only previous try over an “off track.” Training solidly for this barn and gets the trainer’s go-to rider in the saddle. The Prince’s Spur (14) draws in from the MTO List and the trainer is having a super meet. In the first 8 starts, this affable conditioner has 3 wins and a 2nd on the resume. The one has enough speed to stay close and the long distance should not be a problem. Gets the apprentice up and, with that, comes a weight allowance. That does not hurt here, either. I bet the 10-14 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 10-14 over/under the 8-11-4-6 in two smaller units. More with the 8 than the others.