|Total Day Results||10 / 2-5-2|
|2021 Overall 1,477||1477 / 559-522-704|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.85%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.28%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1000-1,477||67.70%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 53-78||67.95%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 27-78||34.62%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 11/5-2-2||45.45% Win / 81.82% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 221/ 98-50-23||44.34% Win / 77.38% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ CD 13/1-1-3||0.77% Win / 38.46% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (9-8-21) 11/3-0-0||27.27% Win / 27.27% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM|
We gear up for the final week of the Churchill Downs’ brilliant September Meet with a Twilight Thursday racing card of 8 events.
Here’s our looks:
1st: 1-4-6/2-3/5…The ole’ lid-lifter on Thursday’s Twilight Racing card — which will tee off at 5 p.m. EST — is a MCL event for the fillies and mares and will be contested at the two-turn distance of 11/16-miles over the main track. I line up with the rail horse — Tayet (1). This 3YO daughter of Cairo Prince drops into the MCL ranks for the first time here and the barn wins with .19% of the last 48 to do just that. Will get a ride who has won with .17% of the last 24 mounts for this barn operation, as well. Before the last event, this one had run 4 straight 3rds. Four straight. Has made the last 5 starts over the sod. Moves to the main track here. Has a third in 3 previous tries over the dirt surface. Looks to be a grinder-type. Epicurean (4) is another who will drop from the MSW ranks into the MCL level. This one has run in the MCL ranks before, though, and in 5 starts so far, has a second and two thirds. Barn wins with .50% when making this drop and with .21% of those when shipping in. Gets a rider who knows his way around this oval, and will likely try to take the lead and dominate from the get-go here. Look out. Speed has carried well here all meet. Gets blinkers for the first time since the first race and has a very nice work on Sept. 19 coming in. Come catch me if you can will be this one’s game. Forgot Password (6) goes for a top, young and dedicated horseman. Has won with .12% of the 41 starts this year, and this one moves from the turf back to the dirt here. Drops from the hills and dales to a flat surface here, too. Look out. Could be a tough out here against the likes of these. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-3 in two smaller units.
2nd: 6-2/3-7/4-5/1…Steely Danza (6) will make his third start for the new barn operation and will drop from the MSW ranks into the MCL level here. Ran against $30,000 types two starts ago. Nearly won that one. Now, will get the start for $20,000 tag. Should fit nicely and gets a top rider up for the first time. Look out here. This one could be tough to handle. Enraged (2) ran at this level here last time out and ran a solid 4th on Sept. 17 — just a couple of weeks ago. Goes from a route distance to a sprint, but the barn only wins with .08% of those kind. Rider is 0-0-0 in 3 starts here. Hmmm. I bet the 6 in my first “Key Play of the Day.” I go across the board and then key the 6 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. I will use more with the 2-3-7 than the rest.
3rd: 2-4/6-3/5-8/1-7…Johnnyslittlegirl (2) comes in here off a near-miss 2nd at this level last time out and the career debut at Ellis Park. Has worked solidly since that effort and the rider is looking for the first win of the meet. Does have 3 seconds and 2 thirds in 9 starts. The barn operator wins with .24% at the MCL level and with .20% of the last 86 at the 2YO level. In one previous race at this distance? Has a second. Look out. Sutton’s Cat (4) comes from the barn of always-dangerous Brad Cox. This one has run the first two at Indy Grand. Nearly won the last time out when starting for a $35,000 price tag. Comes in here for cheaper and has some speed to burn off. Barn wins with .34% of the last 461 to go to the gate as a beaten favorite. One to beat, IMO. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box these two numbers in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 2-4 over (only) the 6-3-5-8-1-7. More with the 6-3.
4th: 4/2-6/3/1-5-7…The second “Key Play of the Day/Night” comes here with Gianna’s Gift (4). After all? You always bet the #4 in the 4th race, right? Well, you do when the numbers add up and you suspect it is the best horse in the event. This is the case here, for me. The 6YO The Factor mare has hit the board in each of the last 6 events and 9 of the last 10. Has a record of 2-2-1 in the last 7 at this distance, and has a 3-2-2 mark in 12 previous runs over this surface, too. Gets a veteran rider who knows how to guide them around this oval. Work on Aug. 21 was spot on before the last race. Look out. I’m all in here. I bet the 4 to win/place and then key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed above. More with the 2-6-3 than the rest.
5th: 2-6/4-5-3/7-8…Bellinger (2) will make the first career start for the new barn operation after starting the career at Saratoga in August. This 2YO daughter of Super Saver should relish the extra distance here and the morning exercises suggest that she should run much, much better, too. Drops from the MSW ranks into the $50,000 level here and the rider has teamed up with this trainer to go 2-1-0 in the last 5 outs. Look out here, too. I love the looks of this one on paper. Worth the $50,000? I think so. Mr Creed (6) ran much better last time out at Indy Grand and now pops up here for the $50,000 tag. Barn putting the blinkers on for the first time, and the trainer wins with .12% of the last 114 to get that equipment change. Will stretch out to the route distance for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .12% of those. New rider could help. Threat. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box these two numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 4-5-3-7-8 in two smaller units.
6th: 5-6-1/2-3/4…Sparkle of Hope (5) gets the nod for me in this spot. This 3YO daughter of Tapizar will move from the turf to the dirt, and this one does have a win over the fast dirt surface before. That came at Ellis Park back in July. Gets a top rider for the first time and the jockey has won with .20% of the last 5 for this outfit. Big chance here. Point Wild (6) won last time out at this same price point and now moves up to face winners for the first time. Barn wins with .18% when facing this move up in conditions. Picks up a rider who has won with .24% of the last 34 mounts for the barn and has teamed up to go 5-2-1 in the last 12 for this trainer, too. Look out. Will be coming late in the stretch. Could motor them all down in the final strides. Glamour Girl (1) has not raced since May and has only one start since March. Barn wins with .09% when returning from this type of a layup. Moves to the dirt, too, after a bad experience in lone grass try. Barn wins with .21% of the last 29 to make this surface switch. Could be helped by the 10-pound weight allowance for the apprentice jockey, too. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-3 in two smaller units.
7th: 3-11-4/5-10-1/2-7-8-9…The feature race of the day is a 6-furlong sprint for the 2YO fillies. I line up with Sol Dorado (3). This 2YO daughter of California Chrome ran 4th in a Stakes event at KY Downs last time out. Before that, this one won over the AW surface at Woodbine. Can she handle the dirt? Don’t see why not. The sire was a dirt demon and the dam was by Old Fashioned. Plenty of dirt in this pedigree and gets a top rider back up for this one. Currently leads the riding standings here, too. Big chance. Don’t forget. Crimson Rose (11) is a speedster from the barn of Brad Cox. Looks like this one should pop-and-go from the far outside. Last work was spot on. Ran a winning race at Ellis Park on Aug. 29. Will face winners for the first time here, and the barn wins with .25% of those kind. Was well supported at the windows in the debut event, too. Will have to run down in the lane. Can they do it? Tizplenty (4) has made 5 career starts to date, and has a win and two thirds. Last two outs have been over the sod. May prefer the dirt instead and draws the brown stuff here. Look for a move up. Won with plenty of speed here back in early June. Sire is one of my favorites of all time, as well. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-4 over/under the 11-5-10-1-2 in two smaller units.
8th: 9-2-4/6-5/8-3-7…The final race of the day is a 7-furlong event for the 3YOs & Up. I line up with Road Bible (9). This 3YO son of Pioneerof the Nile comes in off a 4th at the $30,000 tag last time out in early July. Off since and has worked OK for the return. Comes in at an all-time low price tag, to be sure. Connections paid a handsome $610,000 for this one at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale. Looked the part as a yearling. Now, needs to act the part as a 3YO. Worth the $10,000 investment here? I think so. Cant Stop This Man (2) moves from the Left Coast to the Midwest and from one top barn operation to another. Will make the first start for Greg Foley, who does win with .27% of the last 15 to make the barn debut. Gets the meet’s top rider up. Has flashed speed in the past. Maybe. B Maker (4) drops all the way from the MSW ranks to the MCL level and $10,000 price tag. Massive drop. Barn wins with .13% of the last 70 to show up in the MCL ranks for the first time. Rider has won with .16% of the last 31 for this barn. Chance. I bet the 9-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 9-2 over/under the 4-6-5-8-3-7 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene