(Mac and Pops / Photos by Alex McLean)

Days Results 10 / 5-3-5
2023 Overall — 629 629 / 218-203-274
Win % of Top Pick 34.66%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.83%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 385-629 61.21%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 20-30 66.67%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 12-30 40.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 7-10 70.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 5-10 50.00%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 1/0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 84/38-16-8 45.24% Win / 73.81% ITM

Stats Now Updated

Here’s our looks at the Churchill Downs’ card on Tuesday, May 2. We are getting ready to throw down on “Derby Week:”

1st: 1-2-5/6-3//4/7…Gormleyesque (1) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter in the opener on Tuesday of this “Derby Week” extravaganza. This 3YO daughter of Gormley drops to half the asking price here for a barn that wins with .27% when falling this much in the claiming ranks at one time. Gets a solid “bug boy” to take the mount and should be able to air from the gate and avoid the issues with the chute. Distance may be the issue. Kentucky Reign (2) is the first “Upset Special of the Day.” This 3YO daughter of Cinco Charlie drops from the MSW ranks and converts from the grass to the main track, as well. Should improve with this class relief and the rider is another apprentice. Barn wins with .12% when running for the 3rd time off the layoff. Girls House (5) is the 6-5 ML favorite according to my good friends at Brisnet. com. Will make another step down here and goes from a route to a sprint distance. Barn wins with .12% with the cut back in distance. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-3 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 1-3/6-4-5/2/7/8…I will go with my second straight railbird here and saddle up with Golden View (1). This 3YO daughter of Goldencents ran poorly last time out, but that was against much tougher and this one had a horrific trip. Gets a top rider for this journey and should carve out a solid trip with some early speed. Like this one, especially considering that the rider and trainer have teamed up to go 4-2-2 in the last 12 outs. Luna Moth (3) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time, as well, and has some talent. Will be coming later in the proceedings. May like the dirt better than the AW, too. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-3 in the exactas. I will key the 1-3 over/under the 6-4-5-2 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 3/1/6-7/2-5//4…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Electric Sense (3). This 3YO filly drops considerably and the barn wins with .14% of the last 251 in the claiming ranks. Gets a HOF rider to take the reins here and that could help immensely. Has speed and may carve out a gate to wire endeavor. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 3 over/under the 1-6-7-2-5 in the exactas. More with the 1 than the rest. 

4th: 7-4-9/5-6-8//3//2…Dre Me Less (7) gets the nod here. Drops in class and this one ran well here in September to break the MCL. Gets a new rider, who should be able to aid the cause. Has a win here and at this distance. I’mherefortheparty (4) broke the MCL last time out and now runs for half the asking price when facing winners for the first time. Barn wins with .17% of the last 46 to move up to this category for the firsts time. A Little Bit Crazy (9) is a California-bred who broke the MCL at Santa Anita on March 26. Ships here for a barn that is attempting to relocate and establish here. May be interesting with the speed. I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7-4 over/under the 9-5-6-8 in two smaller units. 

5th: 3-2-(10)/6-9-1/7-8/5…This is a 11/16-mile turf event and I’ll line up with Joyful Applause (3). This one loves this track, although she has never won here. In 4 previous tries, she has 3 runner-ups and a third on the resume. Regular rider returns and this one should be hunting the wire first again. Eidikos (2) ran huge in the first try over here in N.A. for a top notch barn operation. Should improve off that effort and could be a tough out here. HOF rider gets the mount and that could be enough to boost the chances. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over/under the 6-9-1-7-8 in two smaller units. 

6th: 1-4/7/3-8/5/6…Music Amore (1) is another rail bird that I like on this day. This 4YO filly was claimed last time out and the new barn wins with .13% of the last 119 to make the initial effort for the new connections. Gets a top rider up here and that should help. Has a win at the distance and could be a tough out at this level. Sacred Beauty (4) won last time out in Ohio, but will face much tougher here. This daughter of Classic Empire has hit the board in 13 of 20 lifetime starts, though, and has to be considered. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-4 in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 7-3-8 in two smaller units. 

7th: 2-5-1/4-9-8/6/10/7/3…Giada (2) has top-end connections and certainly looked like a winner in the career debut before tiring at the very end. Gets another top rider for this effort and the jockey has won the last two for this barn. Sharp work at KEE on April 21. Look out. Generous Lover (5) could improve with a better trip here. Had a rough start and still fought on. New rider is the best in the game. Birdie Rose (1) gets Lasix for the first time and that could be enough to propel this one, if ready off the bench. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 5-1-4-9-8 in two smaller units. 

8th: 2-1/4-(13)-(15)-(16)/5-10/8-12-(14)/3-6-9…The last grass race of the day is a 5.5-furlong sprint and I will go with the inside runners — led by Chasing Artie (2). This one has run this distance 5 times. Has 4 wins. Hard to beat that. Has not run since last September, but the barn wins with .24% when coming back off a similar layoff as this. Top rider up. Looks like this one will be coming late. Agent Peter Graves (1) has run the distance three times with a 1-1-1 mark. Has hit the board in 6 of 10 on the sod, too. Ran well at Gulfstream Park last out. Good work here on April 25. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-1 in the exactas. I will key the 2-1 over/under the 4-13-15-16-5-10 in two smaller units. 

9th: 9-4-2/6/5-7//3-8…I go with the #9 in the 9th race = good luck, right? Hope so. Need some, since going 11/4-miles over the dirt — getting ready for the Derby distance. Game Warden (9) will get the blinkers on for the first time and the barn wins with .17% of the last 63 to get that equipment change. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the barn wins with .17% of the last 145 of those. HOF rider up. Like this one, a lot. I bet the 9 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I box the 9-4-2 in the exactas. I will key those numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene