Final Version: McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on Tuesday, May 3

Had 6 winners out of the 10 races carded at Churchill Downs on “Opening Night.” Now, we are ready to crack the safe this week.

Here’s our looks for Tuesday and the beginning of “Derby Week” 2022:

1st: 4-3/6/1A-1-7/2/5…Earley Rose (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on Tuesday and the kick start to “Derby Week 2022.” What a week this shall be at the greatest racing venue ever. This 3YO Warrior’s Reward filly comes in off a 2nd at the Fair Grounds in mid-March. Tired in that one. But returns here as the beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .26% of those. Rider has won with .29% of the last 14 mounts for this barn, too. My pick. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-3 in the exactas. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

2nd: 1/4-2/5/3…Isaac Murphy Marathon Stakes…The first “Key Play of Derby Week” comes here with the rail bird — Lone Rock (1). Won’t get any odds here, but this 7YO gelding has raced this 11/2-mile distance a total of 5 times in his career. Has 4 wins and a 2nd. Here at CD? Has raced 6 times with a 3-2-0 mark. Comes in off a wire-to-wire win in the Temperance Hill Stakes at Oaklawn Park and beat some good ones there, too. Pick. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas.

3rd: 6-5-4/7-2/1/3…Risata (6) drops from the $50,000 starter allowance ranks to the straight $20,000 claiming bin here. Massive drop after a poor outing at KEE on April 13. Races before at Turfway were good enough to support here, though. Son-in-law gets the reins. I’m in. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7-2 in two smaller units.

4th: 1/2/5/6-4/3…The second “Key Play of Derby Week” comes here with another rail bird — Regal Retort (1). This one drops to the $50,000 level after running in 4 Stakes events out of the last 6 races. Gets the world’s top rider and goes for the Downs’ all-time winningest trainer. Works are good, too. All in. I bet the 1 across the board and then key the 1 over/under the 2-5-6-4-3 in the exactas. More with the 2 than the rest. Little less with the 5. Lesser with the rest.

5th: 8-(12)/9/2-1/3/7-11/4/5-6…The first grass race of the day and I will ante up with  Breaker of Chains (8). This one ships in from Florida and has not raced since December. But the barn wins off the bench and this one has been in Stakes in the last two — including a G3. Held her own in those, without question. If ready, she should be able to handle these types. I bet the 8 across the board. If this race comes off the turf and heads to the main track, I will convert to the MTO — High Fashion (12). I will key the 8 or 12 over/under the 9-2-1-3-7-11 in the exactas. More with the 9 than the rest.

6th: 3-2/4/1-8/7/6-5…Baby Quinn (3) will drop into the MCL ranks for the first time after running a near-winning race on debut here about a year ago against much tougher. Works for the comeback are spot on and the barn is the best on the grounds. Bar none. Rider has won with .20% in the last 41 mounts for this barn and this one gets Lasix for the first time. Has speed. Could be gone, gone, gone. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-2 in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 2-4-1-8-7 in two smaller units, as well. 

7th: 9-1A-7/5/6/2-3-8/1/4…Gate Runner (9) is not a son of Gun Runner. Not. Is a son of the late, great Arrogate, and cost a whopping $560,000 at the 2020 KEE September Sale. Ran poorly in the career debut as the favorite. But? Huge but here. Hit the gate coming out and no factor. Tough situation there. Has worked well since and gets a world class rider up. I’m back up. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will also key the 9 over/under the 1A-7-5-6-2-3-8 in two smaller units.

8th: 5/(11)-(12)/3-7/9/4-6/2-8…This is a 5.5-furlong turf sprint, and if it stays on the sod, I will saddle up with Field Day (5). Strong. Stern. This 4YO gelding has raced this specialty distance a total of 10 times already. Has a sparkling 4-2-2 mark and has Stakes experience. Has speed to stay close enough and should make the first serious run for home. All in. If it comes off the turf, I move to the MTOs, here. I bet the 5 across the board and then key the 5 over/under the 3-7-9-4-6 in the exactas. 

9th: 4-8-7/6/5-3…Strollin the Bayou (4) gets the edge in the day’s finale. This one drops considerably for a top horseman and goes from the turf to the dirt here. Barn wins with .12% of those making this surface switch. Rider has won on this one before and she looks well-spotted for this effort. Sariah Sariah (8) was claimed last time out and that was a nice 2nd as the odds-on favorite at KEE. Barn wins with .11% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Trainer has won with only .05% of the last 39 starters. Hmmm. Aura (7) has a shot here, too. Drops for this one and the top barn could be ready for a great week. Chance. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene