|Total Day Results||10 / 3-4-6|
|2022 Overall — 619||619 / 220-223-284|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.54%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.15%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 394-619||63.65%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 47-67||70.15%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 27-67||40.30%|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 12/6-3-1||50.00% Win / 83.33% ITM|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 56-78||71.79%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 35-78||44.87%|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 14/6-1-3||42.86% Win / 71.43% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 116/ 49-26-10||42.24% Win / 73.28% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 2/0-0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 18/2-1-2||11.11% Win / 27.78% ITM|
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 0/0-0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
Here’s our looks for Churchill Downs on Thursday night’s twilight card:
1st: 2-6/8-3/4-5/7/1…Sergeant Countzler (2) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter Thursday evening at the big oval in Louis Town. this 2YO son of Bolt d’Oro will be making his 2nd career start for William Walden — the son of former trainer Ben Walden. Colt ran a nice 3rd on debut at KEE on April 20. Pressed the pace before tiring in that one. Should be fitter here and gets this meet’s top rider. Look out on the 2nd call. Top of My Game (6) is now being trained by Doug O’Neill and he wins with .18% of the last 227 this year. Gets a rookie in the saddle, but this cat can ride. Work on April 9 was spot on. Look for more here. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 2-6 over the 8-3-4-5 in a smaller unit.
2nd: 4-5/6-2-3/7-1…Beverly’s Charge (4) has not been out since March 19 and now drops considerably to the $20,000 claiming tag here. Eased in the last start at Aqueduct. But this one has a win in two previous tries here and is working solid for the return. Gets a top rider who has booted home .24% of the last 21 for this barn. Sweet Confusion (5) gets a new trainer for the first time here. Barn wins with .17% on debut. New rider up and this one could be closing at the wire with a sweet rail trip. Chance. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-5 in the exactas. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 6-2-3-7-1 in two smaller units.
3rd: 4-1-5/6/2/7/3…Soaring Bird (4) will be making the 32nd career start here, and this one has 4 trips to the winner’s circle. Has won here, too, but is 1-2-2 in 10 previous tries. Drops to a career-low price tag for this one and that may wake this one up from two poor outings so far this year. Drena’s Star (1) has raced here 4 times previously, with 3 thirds. Chance? But? Needs to improve here. Impressed (5) ran in a Stakes event at Turfway Park on Jan. 1. That did not go well and he bled from the nostrils in that one. Gets the Lasix back here. Take note. I’m good here. I bet the 5 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-2 in two smaller units.
4th: 5-1-8/2/7/4/6/3…Hannah’s Haven (5) returns as a beaten favorite and for a new barn operation after being claimed last time out. Moves up in class and that will make this opportunity tougher, but should fit OK with these. A very nice rider switch here and the work on April 24 signals a change in direction. Chance. Black Panda (1) has not raced since last September and will be dropping considerably to a career-low price tag. New York-bred worked super on May 7. Has some stalking speed and could be a nice price at PT. I like this one. Raceday Attire (8) drops to a career-low price level, too, and this one should love the relief. Barn wins with .19% when dropping this much at one time. Rider can boot. I bet the 1 — take note — and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-7 in two smaller units.
5th: 3-2-5/6-8/7/1-4-10…Bohemian Boy (3) has run two poor ones in a row, but drops into the claiming ranks and has a serious excuse in the last one — when checking early and often. Gets a new rider here, and I like this switch in pilots. Has some speed. Let him rock and roll. Kygo (2) has raced here twice before and has a win and a 2nd to show on the resume. Drops from the Stakes ranks into the claiming ranks here. Look out. Grey Streak (5) nearly won a Stakes last October at Hawthorne. Has only been out once in 2022. Should improve off the last outing. Got a shot here at this level. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over/under the 5-6-8-7-1 in two smaller units.
6th: 7-3/9-2-4/1-8/6/5…Invisible War (7) has hit the board in each of the last 5 outings and 6 of the last 7 tries. Should fit nicely here and gets a huge rider switch for this encounter. Like the solid ML odds, too. I’m in. All in. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the 7-3 in the exactas. I will key the 7 over/under the 3-9-2-4-1-8 in two smaller units.
7th: 8-3-5/6-7/1/2/4…Macallan (8) was nominated to the Triple Crown series, so someone must have thought a lot of this one. Sold for $210,000 as a 2YO. Ran super in the first two outings. Off From February to April and ran a very troubled 4th at KEE in that one. Look for so much more here. I’m in. All in. My first “Key Play of the Day.” I will also take a strong look at Koolhaus (3). This son of Nyquist comes from the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at a .24% rate after 321 starts this year. This guys has not been out since late March, but had two good ones in a row down at the Fair Grounds. Chance here, too. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will double down on a 8-3 exacta box, as well, and then key the 8 over/under the 3-5-6-7-1 in two smaller units.
8th: 6/8-7/4-1/(11)-(12)/3-2-9…The final race of the night will give us our last “Key Play of the Day,” as well. I will line up with Dreamful (6). This is a 4Yo daughter of Kitten’s Joy and trained by Cox, as well. Blinkers come off and the barn wins with .23% of those. Returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .31% of the last 400 to fit that bill. Has been 2nd three times in a row and four of the last five. Time to kick the door down. Big time. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the 8-7-4-1-3 in the exactas. More with the 8-7 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene