Final Version: McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on Twilight Thursday — May 26

An abbreviated card up at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Wednesday, after thunderstorms and heavy rain washed out the proceedings.

We are back at the big oval in Louis-town for Twilight Thursday. Here’s our looks for Churchill Downs’ kickoff to the race week:

1st: 6/2-5/4/3-1/(8)-(7)…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louisville this evening. This is scheduled as a 11/16-mile event for the sod. But…We have experienced heavy rains for much of the day and it would not surprise if this bad boy is moved to the main track. If so, I will load the wagons with Silver Dust (8) — who is entered for “Main Track Only.” No dust to be found in any part of town, other than this one. And, he likes the “off track.” In 5 tries, he has a 1-1-1 record. Two races ago, won the G3 Ben Ali over the slop at KEE. Has not been out since June of last year. Nearly a year. But the works are spot on and the barn knows how to get them ready. This 8YO has won nearly $1 million, too. Has game. Will travel. If it stays on the sod, as unlikely as that may seem, I will line up with Admission Office (6). This one has raced here 3 times prior and has a win and two 3rds. Ran here over a “good” sod in November of 2019. Nearly won that day. Trainer and jockey are both solid. I bet the 8 or the 6 across the board and then key the numbers underneath off either one of those two. 

2nd: 2-5/4-7/3/6…Hearns (2) gets the blinkers on for the first time and that could help this son of Jimmy Creed. Ran well at Turfway Park back in February. Spit the bit in the last outing at KEE. Rider has won with .40% for this barn of late, and is having another super meet. Barn wins with .21% in the first effort off the claim, too. Lake Tahoe (5) is a beautiful place and I would love to go back there. The horse? A 3YO son of Oxbow who drops another notch in the claiming game here. Should fit with these. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 2-5 over/under the 4-7-3 in two smaller units.

3rd: 1-5/1A-6/4/2-7/3…Towhead (1) is the best part of the entry, IMO, and should get serious consideration for the career debut here. Will break from the #6 post position, and that is much better than the rail for a “firster.” Works are solid. Trainer wins with .12% on debut. Rider has won with .33% of the last 27 mounts for this barn. Adds up for me. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-5 in the exactas. I will key the 1 over/under the 5-6-4-2-7 in two smaller units.

4th: 6-5/(12)-(10)/1-2-4-8/(11)/3…This is another event that is scheduled for the sod, and is likely to be moved over the main track. Originally, I go with Strong Embrace (6), and this one did run very well twice when moved off the grass to the main track. Could happen again. Bella Conchita (5) has run well over the AW, but has not been on an “off track.” Lots of unknown. Epsom Gratus (12) is entered for the “MTO,” and has to be considered if he runs. Nearly won here last November over a “good” main track. I bet the 6-12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. 

5th: 6/3-5/2-4-7…Little Mombo (6) could provide some more good vibes with the #6 saddle cloth here and gets our next “Key Play of the Day” designation. This 3YO Into Mischief filly was purchased for $500,000 at the 2020 KEE September Yearling Sale and has hit the board in each of the last 3 outings at Oaklawn Park. could convert today with the shift to a new rider. Shorter distance may help, as well. Look out here. I bet the 6 to win/place and key the 6 over (only) the 3-5-2-4-7 in the exactas. More with the 3-5 than the rest. 

6th: 6-7/3-4-10/8-9/2-5…Could it be the third #6 in a row? Happened last week, too. But this would be the #6 in the 6th race. Time to play the “hard six” at the craps table, as well. Frills (6) comes in off 4 straight wins and now picks up the meet’s top rider for the saddle job. Works are solid. Trainer is having a good year with limited numbers . And, this one has a 2-1-0 mark here in 3 previous tries. I’m in. Invaluable (7) moves to a new barn operator after a near-miss 2nd last time out. Barn wins with .23% of those making the 3rd start off the layoff. Could be a spoiler. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 6-7 over (only) the 3-4-10-8-9 in a smaller unit.

7th: 5-(13)/8-9-1/2-10/(11)-3-4-6/7…This is the final turf race scheduled for the night, and I will give the edge to Scarabea (5) if the race stays on the sod. Has run well over the AW surfaces, too. Never been on an “off track.” Interesting. High Fashion (13) is entered for the “MTO,” and this daughter of Union Rags needs to be considered. Ran 2nd here on May 3 over the slop. Ran 2nd here last November in the slop. And, won at KEE last year in the slop. Enough convincing for me. I bet the 5-13 across the board and then box these two in the exactas I will key the 5-13 over/under the 8-9-1-2-10-11 in two smaller units.

8th: 7/8-10/5-6/3-4/2/1-9…The night’s finale and the final “Key Play of the Day” — My Favorite Uncle (7). This 4YO son of Uncle Mo comes in off a solid performance here last time out. Gets a huge rider switch for this one and the jockey has won each of 2 for this barn in the last two weeks. Has hit the board in 4 of the last 6 outings. Has raced 15 times so far and still searching for the winner’s circle. Lot of tries. Lots of disappointment. But does have 3 seconds and 4 thirds. Lots of try, too. Tonight could be the night. I bet the 7 to win/place and then key the 7 over/under the 8-10-5-6-3-4-2 in the exactas. More with the 8-10 than the rest. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene