||9 / 1-3-5
|2022 Overall — 1665
||1665 / 561-615-789
|Win % of Top Pick
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1071-1665
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 10-18
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 4-18
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 3/0-2-0
||00.00% Win / 66.67% ITM
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 315-473
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 166-473
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 64/26-9-7
||40.63% Win / 64.06% ITM
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 270/ 107-58-25
||39.63% Win / 70.37% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 11/2-1-1
||18.18% Win / 36.36% ITM
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2
||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2
||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0
||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 44/9-7-5
||20.45% Win / 47.73% ITM
(Stats to be updated after Churchill Downs’ and Horseshoe Indianapolis’ cards on Wednesday)
We are back to some live music, cold beer and hot racing at Churhcill Downs on this “Twilight Thursday” evening. Here’s our looks:
1st: 1-5/4-2/3-6-7/8…Best Seller (1) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “big oval” in Louisville on this Twilight Thursday card. The 2YO will return to the dirt here, and that should assist this daughter of Bodemeister. Also, this one is dropped to a career-low price tag here, as well, and this level of competition should aid the cause. Gets the Commonwealth’s top rider for the assignment. Barn wins with .20% in the MCL ranks and with .19% when making this surface switch. Goodbetterbest (5) will make the drop into the MCL ranks for the barn of Brad Cox, who wins at a .33% rate over the last 163 starts when it makes this class plunge. Picks up the barn’s go-to rider this time around and should improve, as well. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 4-2-3-6-7 in two smaller units.
2nd: 4-5-12/3-8-9-(13)/2-6-7/1-10-11…Housed (4) is another from the Cox barn and this one drops farther down the claiming rung. Ran OK over the grass at Ellis Park in the debut. Barn wins with .30% of the last 204 to make this surface switch and the son of Ghostzapper could be a bargain at this price level. Look out here. Duplantis (5) will drop in class for one of the top young trainers in the game today. Will add blinkers for the first time and the barn wins with .20% of those kind. Wins with .24% with this class drop, too. Challenger. Airtime (12) could be a threat, if he can finish the job this time. Ran well in the early going in the debut race. Just tired in the stretch. Drops in class here and the stretch out could actually help this one, if the rider can rate the speed angle. Barn wins with .32% when making this class drop and with .24% on the 2nd career race. Threat. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-8 in two smaller units.
3rd: 3-5/2-6-1/4…Grace’s Secret (3) should appreciate this class drop and may be a tough out at this level. Ran well to break the maiden two starts ago and held her own in first try against winners. In 6 previous runs here? Has 4 seconds. Winning rider returns. Ballykeen (5) won here in May and flashed speed again at Ellis Park. If she can save some of that speed for the stretch, it sure would help the cause. Chance. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-5 in the exactas. I will key the 3-5 over/under the 2-6-1-4 in two smaller units.
4th: 8-7/5-6/2-4/3/1…Mayan (8) is a first timer for the barn of HOF trainer Bill Mott. This trainer wins with .10% on first starts, but this one is training lights out. Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and the rider is clever on the front end. Could pop. War Room (7) is another making the debut and this barn wins with .13% on first ask. Dam of this one has 4 winners from 4 starters and 2 Stakes winners. Wow. Sharp work on Sept. 17 at the farm track. May like a bit longer distance, but looks ready. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-7 over/under the 5-6-2-4-3 in two smaller units.
5th: 8-11/3-4-9-(13)/6/5-12-2-1/10-7-1A…Team Leader (8) hit the gate in the career debut and that stung. Too some energy out of that one and it showed up in the stretch. If this son of Street Boss can get a clean break here? Look out. I love this one and, thus, becomes my first “Key Play of the Day.” I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-11 in the exactas. I will key the 8 over/under the 11-3-4-9-13-6 in two smaller units, as well.
6th: 1-6-7/4/2-8/3-5…Kunshan Bridge (1) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time since he broke the maiden here in mid-May. Came with a serious late surge in that one and this 7 furlong distance may fit him just perfectly. Barn has won with .18% this year and the last work was spot on. Button Boy (6) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time since breaking his maiden at KEE last October. Has not been close in two turf tries this year, but the lone time this one was on a fast dirt surface? A win. Back to basics. Writeitontheice (7) will make the new barn debut after being claimed last time out at Saratoga. That was the first time on turf and that experiment didn’t fare well. Drops in class and gets to the main track. Both should help and this barn wins with .19% on the first effort after a purchase. Chance. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4 in two smaller units.
7th: 5-6-1/7-4-12-10/(15)/3-4-11/1…Let My People Go (5) could be a solid price and a solid horse in this spot, too. Has run three good ones in a row and has been a bit different after picking up the blinkers four races ago. Regular rider — who has won with this one — gets back on the back. Take a look here. Marsalis (6) is the horse to beat. Has run two really good ones in the first two starts of the career, but has been off since late March. Works look encouraging. Could be a handful here. Spartan Army (1) is a horse that I have to use. After all, we are headed to East Lansing to see “the kid” for parent’s weekend. Gets Lasix for the first time and has a shot here in the 2022 debut, too. Like. I bet the 6 — take note — across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7-4 in two smaller units.
8th: 6-7-10/2-11-4/(15)/9-1/5…Cloudy Bay (6) gets my top pick in the finale. This 2YO daughter of Cloud Computing ran well before tiring late in the debut. Barn wins with .18% on the second try and picks up blinkers for the first time here, too. Barn wins with .13% of the last 31 to get the shades. Sharp work on Sept. 15. Like. Oath of Allegiance (7) will make the debut here and the barn is off to a good start this meet. Gets a solid rider for the assignment and looks to be training very well for this initial start. Eyes of Gold (10) has run well in two of the first three races and faced a really good one last time out, who came right back to win the next outing, too. This one certainly could get the job done. I bet the 6-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the 6-10 over/under the 7-2-11-4 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene