Tuesday Results 9-2-3-2
Churchill (Same)
Top Pick Win % 22.20%
Top Pick ITM % 4-9 44.40%
Top 3 Picks ITM % 25.90%
2018 Overall 632 Races 217-228-238
Win % of Top Pick 34.30%
ITM % of Top 3 Picks 36.00%

We did not return to our handicapping spot with aplomb. Tuesday was not a banner day. And, we didn’t rake up any big winners.

But that just means we set the stage right for a huge rest of the week, and weekend. Right?

What a beautiful day at the racetrack on Tuesday. More sunshine and splash is in store for today. Grab a friend and get an early start on “Derby Week” at the track. Here’s a closer look at today’s card:

1st: 4-5-1-3-2…Higher Factor (4) gets a “dot” in the lid lifter today. This 4YO gelding by The Factor won the last time out for these connections and now drops to an all-time low purchase price. The trainer hits with .33% of those that drop off a win, and with .31% of those that repeat in the claiming ranks. This stalker is training very well right now, too. The pick. Rock Shandy (5) will bump up a notch after waking up in a bottom level claimer at the Fair Grounds last time out. Nearly won that one before surrendering late at the wire. This one won here last Fall against much tougher. Not overly consistent, but should fit with these. Speedmeister (1) is getting a huge drop to the lowest level he has ever seen before. He ran 5th in the Street Sense Stakes back in 2016 against the likes of McCraken. Obviously, this one has fallen from grace since then, but the barn hits with .33% on the second start after a claim, and hits with .42% of those dropping two notches in class. Should wake up here. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the 4 over/under with all the numbers in two smaller versions.

2nd: 5-4-1-7-2…Bobby the Brain (5) was claimed two races back. This barn hits with .36% of those making the second start after the purchase, and picks up a huge rider switch for this one. In the last two weeks, the rider/trainer have teamed up for a 2-1-0 record in 5 starts together. Cookies Are Good (4) won last time out after being claimed two back. Now, moves up another notch. Don’t mind the climb because the form is really good right now — evidenced by four ITM finishes in a row, with 2 wins and 2 seconds. Rider does better here than most other places. Star Dog (1) ran a really good one in the slop three starts back. Shortens up today to a distance that he prefers with a 4-3-0 mark in 15 starts at the 11/16-mile distance. Take note. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

3rd: 4-8-7-5-1-3…Whyruawesome (4) gets a huge class drop for this one today, and will pick up the addition of blinkers. Trainer hits with 0% when the equipment returns in 8 previous tries. This one has not won since 2016, but it has been awhile since he saw this level and holds a 3-2-0 record in 12 races over this dirt. Gets back to his regular rider. Izzy the Warrior (8) won the last time out and now sports a 3-2-2 record in 10 starts to date. Went gate to wire in the last out, and did pick it up in the speed department. Moves up in class for this one today, and the rider is as cold as anyone in the country right now. Toss up. Aztec Lion (7) has run here twice with a win and a third. Closed with a serious rush in the last effort and just nearly missed off a very soft pace. If any speed can materialize up front in this one, it would improve this one’s chances immensely. Like the 5-1 odds. Take note, I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

4th: (8)-7-3-5-1-2-6…No Funny Biz (8) is entered for MTO, and no rain is forecasted or in sight for Wednesday. Chances slim to none that he gets in this spot. As a result, we revert to Bern’ James Bern (7), who ran a good third in the last time out. Winner of that one has come back to win already. Trainer hits with .22% of those making the second start after a claim. May be ready to score here. Hollywood Critic (3) drops a notch for this one after running a game third last time out against tougher foes. This one has 3 wins and 3 seconds, but has added 7 thirds. Play underneath, for sure. Month (5) was nowhere to be found in the last one and was eased in the previous. But this son of Dialed In has some nice back class. If he can find that form for a good horseman, then he can challenge here at a price. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed; then I key the 7 over under the 3-5-1 again.

5th: 2-3-8-5-1-4…Paddock Crasher (2) won the debut run two back and looked to be headed toward the same result in the last. But tired badly in that one, while getting out late. That was the first try in several months, though, and he could be much fitter for this try today. Bwana Go (3) is moving up in class as far as racetracks go, and down in class as far as race quality is concerned. Dilemma. But this one does have some credentials. Loses the blinkers for this one and the trainer hits with .33% of those losing that equipment. Trainer also scores well with horses coming off this long a layup. Worth a shot with a top rider here. Zaevion (8) won three races back and has been close in the last two while racing very wide. Gets a nice rider switch for this one to a ultra aggressive type in the saddle. Could be the difference today. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the 2 over/under all the numbers in two smaller versions.

6th: 3-8-9-7-5-1A-1…Wide open affair here with no real standout on paper. I finally settle on Our Snowflake (3), an invader from the Tampa Bay circuit. Trainer off to a really good start this year, winning at a .26% clip. This one ran well on debut on the Sun Coast, nearly winning before fading late to third. Bumped at the start of the last one and never got in the mix. Falls into the MCL ranks for the first time today, and she should appreciate the softer company. Lovelily (8) ran a good one two back, but faded from contention when the rider lost the whip in the last try. That was last October, and the trainer does hit with .11% of those returning from that kind of layup. Drops into the MCL ranks for the first time, too. Stay Anchored (9) was nowhere to be found in her only previous start. But she hit the gate in that one and never offered a challenge on the polytrack. Now, she has returned to work very well for the return to the afternoon, and I like her chances at a solid 10-1 ML price. I bet the 3-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

7th: 3-5-2-1-6-8-7…Galileo Gal (3) is a solid first choice for me in this spot. After winning and running a really good second at Woodbine last Fall, she returned at Tampa in February, and, despite losing as the beaten favorite, she really ran well while wide in the stretch. Lost by only a length in that one coming off the layoff and now gets one of the hottest jockeys in the country right now. Super nice work at Keeneland on April 26. Like the way it adds up. Sapphire Jubilee (5) has a 1-1-1 record in just four career starts and comes into this one after pulling away to break the maiden in the last effort at GP in March. Had to split rivals in that one, but really took off when clear. She is a closer that will need racing luck and room late. Ladrona (2) has won two in a row, and will pick up Julien Leparoux in the saddle for this one. The jock kicks Sapphire to the curb for this mount, but he is ice cold and I think will have his hands full with the move up on class for this bunch. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed. My pick of the day.

8th: 9-6-2-4-7-3-1…My Dark Secret (9) is my little secret on today’s card — at 10-1 ML odds. This 3YO filly has gotten two starts this year and ran OK in each despite being very wide in each. Ran two super races in a row last fall, breaking the maiden at Keeneland and nearly winning here over this track after being “bottled up” in that one. Gets a hot rider up today. Upset Special. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-6 in one exacta. I key the 9-6 over and under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.

9th: 2-4-3-8-1-5-10…Bourbon Country (2) is another longer price that I like in this spot. He is 6-1 ML odds, but has run two nice ones in a row and broke the maiden in the last affair. Moves up in class today, but look at the change in this one after getting blinkers and Florent Geroux in the saddle. Remarkable difference. Midnight Pleasure (4) has only one win in 13 starts to date, but has 2 seconds and 4 thirds. Likes to run late, and likes to hit the board. Just doesn’t like to win. Use. Señor Jobim (3) is another one moving up after graduation day last time out. Goes for a top barn. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under all the numbers. I key the 4 under the “all button” in a softer one, too.

10th: 2-7-4-3-9-8…Toll Guard (2) gets a slight edge in a wide open affair to end the day’s events. Plummets in class for this one for a trainer off to a good start with limited runners this year. Barn does well at this level and has two thirds in a row since picking up Lasix two starts back. News Box (7) has two thirds in a row, and may improve a bit today with a change in riders. Wild Will (4) was beaten just two lengths in the last effort to a horse that has already come back to win again. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

Good Luck & All the Best/Gene