Days Results 9 /  2-4-1
2023 Overall — 638 638 / 220-207-275
Win % of Top Pick 34.48%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.68%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 389-638 60.97%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 20-30 66.67%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 12-30 40.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 11-19 57.89%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 7-19 36.84%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 1/1-0-0 100% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 1/0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 85/39-16-8 45.88% Win / 74.12% ITM

Stats Now Updated

Here’s our looks for Wednesday — “Hump Day” — of Kentucky Derby Week Extravaganza:

1st: 6-4-5/2/1-3…Kissalot (6) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on this Wednesday card at the world’s best racing venue. This 4YO gelding won the last time out at Turfway Park and now must convert back to the dirt surface. Barn wins with .19% of the last 282 to make that adjustment. Has a 2-2-4 mark in 15 dirt races coming in. Gets the world’s top rider up. Allege (4) has won 4 in a row and will get a new rider for this occasion. Jockey just finished up a glory meeting at KEE and can boot. This one has the speed here to be very dangerous. Threat. Silver Dust (5) used to be “somebody.” Has won over $1.04 million in the career. Can still get the job done, but does not have a win in the last two years. Better underneath these days. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 8-11-10/5-7-9/1-4/6-3…Sonofaship (8) looks very good in this spot. The 2YO son of Midshipman ran a huge 2nd on debut at KEE on April 13. Working well. Gets a top rider back in the saddle. Should be a very tough out here. Let’s Go Mark (11) ran 3rd on debut and behind the top pick here. Rider has gone 6-4-5 in the last 24 over the past week. Gets a huge rider switch here. Huge. Huge. Huge. May flip the narrative. Loudermilk (10) was well bet in the debut and just tired against a monster that day. May improve with the 2nd career start, where the barn has won .33% of the last 6. I bet the 8-11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8-11 over/under the 10-5-7-9 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 5-7-8/1-6/4//2/3…Co Conspirator (5) gets the nod here. This one drops in class after facing much tougher in the last few. Won when racing for $15,000 three back and won that one. Should fit nicely here. Blueberry (7) drops down 2 classes in the claiming ranks and the barn wins with .17% of the last 29. Has a win and a 3rd in 3 starts at the distance. Herd Immunity (8) has a 3rd in only previous try here. But this one does like dry dirt. In 19 tries over that surface, this one has a 6-3-2 mark. Nice. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-6 in two smaller units. 

4th: 3-8-9/(16)-(15)/2-10-6/5-4-1-11/7-(14)…Wardeya (3) moves to the grass for the first time and the barn wins with .19% of the last 149 to do that. Ran well in the debut when race moved off the sod. Gets the world’s top rider up. Dam has zero turf winners, though, and that’s interesting. Gloria’s Princess (8) comes from a dam with 2 turf winners in 4 starters to the pedigree’s credit. This one ran a huge 2nd over the sod at Gulfstream Park on debut in early April. Gets a top rider back up here. Huge threat. Huge. Heckled (9) has run well in the first two and is well-bred for the sod. Look for some improvement here in the 3rd start. I bet the 3-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-8 over/under the 9-16-15-2-10-6 in two smaller units. 

5th: 1-4-7/9-3/2/5-8//6…Towing (1) drops to a career low price tag here and should be a tough out in this spot. Has speed and could control the pace from the rail. Clever veteran takes the reins again and nearly won last time out when racing here last November. Will be a tough out if ready off the bench. Barn wins with .16% when away this long. Loot the Moon (4) didn’t run well last time out, but hit the board in the last two before and four of the previous 5. Barn wins with .22% when moving from AW to the dirt surface. Lemon Drop Shot (7) broke the MCL last time out and has hit the board in each of the last 4. Chance. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 9-3 in two smaller units. 

6th: 11-10/2-9-8/1-3-4/7//5-6…Twirling Patti (11) drops to the lowest price tag ever coming off a small layoff. This 5YO mare races for the Churchill Downs Racing Club and figures to be a tough out in this spot for one of the best young trainers in the game today. Barn wins with .17% when away this long. Talented. Elle of the Ball (10) has some speed and can be dangerous. Raced in a Stakes event two ago and this one has faced tougher than this group in the recent past. Gets the top rider in the Commonwealth, these days. No argument. I bet the 11-10 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 11-10 over/under there 2-9-8-1-3-4 in two smaller units. 

7th: 6-3/4/2-1-5/8//7…Patient Capital (6) returns here as a beaten favorite. This barn wins with .24% of the last 406 to return to action as the defeated fan’s choice. Gets a top rider for this assignment, and the rider is hot, hot, hot. In 8 races at this distance, just one win. Does have 4 runner-ups and a third. But one win? Angkor (3) goes for a top trainer, who loves to coach speed from his talent. This one, though, looks to do his best running in the lane. Does have a win here and has hit the board in 5 of 7 over this strip. I bet the 6-3 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-3 over/under the 4 in two smaller units. 

8th: 1-6/7/3-4-5//2…Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight Stakes…I go with the railbird — Lone Rock (1) — in this spot. This one has hit the board in the last 5 races and 9 out of the last 10. Has 5 wins in that mix. Even better numbers than those? At this long distance of 11/2-miles, this one has a record of 5 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third in 8 starts. Wow. That’s impressive. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I key the 1 over/under there 6-7-3-4-5 in the exactas. I box the 1-6 in two smaller units, too. 

9th: 4-5/9/10-6-8-3-2/1/7…Mamzelle Stakes…This a 5.5-furlong sprint over the sod. In other words? The complete opposite of a Stakes than the previous race. I go with Lady Hollywood (4). This one ran a huge 2nd in the Limestone Stakes at KEE on April 14. Coming late in that one. Won in France, Ireland, Great Britain, too. International star will be a tough out here with a HOF rider in the saddle. Danse Macabre (5) won the G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes at GP on March 4. Nice win. That was at a mile. In two starts at this distance? A win and a second. But? May not be a speed specialist. I bet the 4 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 4-5 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 9 in two smaller units.

10th: 1-3-4/7-8-10/12-2/6-11/5-9…Rate Confirmation (1) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .16% when making this adjustment in class. Should appreciate the class drop and gets a huge rider switch for this one, too. I can go here. Power Alley (3) drops to half the asking price here. Blinkers come on. Barn wins with .30% when adding the equipment. Forever Cool (4) gets the blinkers for the first time, too, and the rider is red hot. This one comes from a dam who has produced 5 winners from 6 starters. This is the lone miss, so far. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1-3 over/under the 4-7-8-10-12 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene