Total Day Results 10 / 5-2-3
2022 Overall — 965 965 / 341-360-449
Win % of Top Pick 35.34%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.72%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 623-965 64.56%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 192–294 65.31%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 103-294 35.03%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 60/25-16-5 41.67% Win / 76.67% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 122-177 68.93%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 73-177 41.24%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 33/14-4-3 42.42% Win / 63.64% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  188/ 78-42-16 41.49% Win / 72.34% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 9/1-1-1 11.11% Win / 33.33%
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 27/5-2-3 18.52% Win / 37.04% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 3/2-0-0 66.67% Win / 66.67% ITM

(Stats to be updated after Horseshoe Indianapolis on Tuesday night)

Here’s our looks for the Wednesday morning card being offered up by Churchill Downs. The program will begin at the “big oval” at 10:30 a.m. to help avoid the excessive heat, which is expected most of the day.

Here’s our looks at Churchill Downs for Wednesday:

1st: 5-3-2/1-1A/4…Nana’s Gray (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “big oval” in Louisville on Wednesday morning, when the gates will open early and the first post will be held at 10:30 a.m. in an attempt to avoid most of the excessive heat that is planned on arriving. This 3YO filly won the last time out at this same price tag to earn the 2nd career win. Loses that condition and moves up to face tougher here, but retains the meet’s top rider and this one looks to be on top of her game right now. Rider is 6-2-6 in the last 23 ups. My pick. Mohaylady (3) was claimed just two back when winning the 2-lifetime start. Claimed in that one and jumped up in class. Didn’t fare too well with the escalation level, but returns to the same price tag here. Look for this one to be dangerous at this level. Rider has had a very solid meet. Murgatroyd (2) has not hit the board in three outs this year, but drops considerably in the class department for this arrangement. If she has anything left in the tank, it should show up here. I bet the 5-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the entry in two smaller units.

2nd: 1-4/6/3/2-5-7…Oiler (1) was claimed last time out for the $30,000 price tag and returns here for the exact same price point. Nearly won the last out and three races back, as well. Fits here. Goes for a good barn. Rider is having a solid meet, too. One to beat, IMO. Anaheim (4) cost the big-guns a hefty $385,000 to purchase at the KEE September 2020 sale. To date? Has earned back about $2,000. Need a bigger truck? Returns to KY here after a tour of duty in the embattled Baffert barn and the protege’s on the West Coast and falls into the $30,000 claiming ranks. Maybe shows up here. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-4 in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 6-3 in two smaller units.

3rd: 5/2-3-7/6/4/1…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Bad Decisions (5). This 3YO Tiznow colt cost $110,000 for the Rigney Racing Stables and this one has gotten back about $15,000. Did flash some promise at the $50,000 MCL ranks last time out here on May 28. If he can bring that effort back here? Look out. Looks to be the class of this bunch. I bet the 5 across the board and then key the 5 over/under the 2-3-7-6-4 in two smaller units.

4th: 2/3/5-6/1/4…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Buckingham Prince (2). This is a 3YO son of Klimt and one of the few leftovers in the stable of the late Marylou Whitney Stables. Has run 4 times this year with a single 2nd. Drops considerably for this effort, though, and the barn wins with .24% when going into the claiming ranks for the first time. Gets a new rider, to boot. Like the work here on June 16. I’m in. I bet the 2 across the board and then key the 2 over/under the 3-5-6-1-4 in the exactas. More with the 3 than the rest. 

5th: 5-4/3-1-6/2/7…Carillo (5) should be the PT favorite in this group. Has run against much tougher, but the claim last time was voided and that does raise a question — especially with the sudden drop n price tag here. Barn is ice cold here, while killing it up at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Interesting. May be a bit over-bet. Loving Lucky (4) drops in class here, too. Won at Oaklawn Park three starts ago, but has not been close since. Drops in class here in hopes that he may become relevant again. Ho-hum. Plemmonston (3) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This one is listed at 6-1 in the ML, and could ease up the scale by PT. Ran 2nd in two of the last 3 outs and the wagering board may stay quiet due to fact that the trainer is 0-for-17 this meet and the rider is a meager 3-for-57. Chilly. Chiller than the weather, let’s say. But this one does have some credentials and could sneak in at the wire. Coming late. I bet the 4-3 across the board — take note — and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1-6 in two smaller units.

6th: 8-2-1/5-4-7/3-6…Kbcya Later (8) ran well in the debut before tiring in the late going. The 2YO Broken Vow colt returns here as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .21% of those kind. Meet’s top rider retains the reins. Looks the best on paper. Baytown Get It On (2) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .15% of those. Ran OK last time out on the AW, but returns to the big leagues here. Twist of Faith (1) ran well in the debut effort, but has not been seen since April 13. Drops here for a barn that is 1-for-24 this meet. Chance. But…I bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. Enough for me.

7th: 5-4-7/6-8/3/2…Villareggia (5) was claimed for $10,000 last time out as the betting favorite. Ran 5th in the deep fog at Oaklawn Park that day. May fit with these. May have found here right group to face here. Purrfect Mistress (4) could upset this group, too. Drops from the $30,000 level to the $10,000 ranks here and the barn wins with .24% in the 2nd start after a claim purchase. Rider has gone 2-0-1 in 3 starts for this barn. Outlaw Queen (7) ran well in the debut has two duds since then. Barn is very capable of rebounding here, though. Threat. I bet the 5-7 across the  board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. Enough for me, again.

8th: 6-7/4-3-5/2/1…Samurai Prince (6) drops back into the straight claimers here for the first time in awhile. Last time this one was up for purchase, he won for $40,000 here in April of 2021. Work on June 12 was spot on. Big shot here. Ournationonparade (7) tumbles down the claiming ranks here, as well. May improve with the shorter distance. Has some figures that figure here. Chance. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-7 in the exactas. Enough for me, yet again.

9th: 8-7-4/1-3/5/2-6-9…Wild Behavior (8) gets the call in the finale. This 6YO gelded son of Into Mischief has won nearly $200,000 in the career — which has spanned 20 career starts. Nearly won last time out, too. Looks sharp for a trainer named Sharp. Rider has won with .32% of the last 19 for this barn. I’m in here. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-3 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene