|Total Day Results||10 / 7-3-3|
|2021 Overall 1,624||1624/611-578-775|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.62%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.31%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,100-1,624||67.73%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 38-62||61.29%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 17-62||27.42%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 5/1-1-0||20.00% Win / 40.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 245/ 110-55-23||44.90% Win / 76.73% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ CD 7/0-0-1||00.00% Win / 14.29% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (10-30-21) 18/4-0-0||22.22% Win / 22.22% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM|
|“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
The Breeders’ Cup has come and gone. Headaches. Heartaches. Cheers. Celebrations. All are memories now.
Churchill Downs returns to the fray on Wednesday. We are here with our picks. Per normal. Let’s go racing.
Here’s a look at our picks:
1st: 2-4/3/6-5/1-1A…Radiantrithym (2) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louisville today. This 7YO mare has not been close in each of the last three outings, but figures to be a tough out here — where she has a 2-1-1 mark in five previous runnings. Will be making the 2nd start off a layup, and the barn wins with .22% of the last 23 to do that. Gets a hot rider, who is winning at a .21% rate this meet, too. Works of late are spot on. Looks solid here. Whiskey Sis (4) has not run at Churchill Downs before, but does have 3 wins and a third in 4 lifetime starts at this distance. Won the last race and three of the last four — all in Cincy. Rider is having a great Fall and has gone 2-2-1 in 8 starts here. Don’t dismiss. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box these two n the exactas. I will key the 2-4 over/under the 3 in two smaller units.
2nd: 6-7-4/1/2/3-5…Pit Boss (6) drops to half the asking price from the $40,000 tag he ran at in September. Was claimed out of that one, too. Barn wins with .10% when drop this much at once and with 0-for-7 when dropping off the claim. That is a warning sign, to be sure. But? This one has 2 wins in 7 starts here and should fit against these. What to do? May be time to punt. Eskenforit (7) drops to near the career low price tag here, too. Won easily over in Virginia two races ago when facing similar. Barn has had a great Summer/Fall and could be poised for a big run in this spot. Could be sitting on a big effort. The Stiff (4) is a 4YO son of Danza and trained by Tom Amoss for owner Maggi Moss. Drops off the claim here, too, but this barn wins with .37% when it does it. Blinkers come off and the trainer wins with .22% of those, as well. First after the purchase? Wins with .24%. May be the one to beat here. I’m in. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 6-4 over/under the 7-1-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 2-3-6/5-1-4…Brooklynn’s Dabomb (2) is another from the barn of Michelle Lovell, one of my favorites of all time. This 3YO filly is by the unheralded stallion Hit It a Bomb, who has had a great year, too, with a talented runner in the Breeders’ Cup. Last two outings have not been great for this filly, but she drops into the claiming ranks here and that should assist the effort. Been off since mid-September, too and the barn wins with .10% when away this long. Works are solid. Look for rebound performance here. Fine Prospecture (3) moves up a notch in the claiming game after a solid 3rd last time out. Broke the MCL at KEE this Spring. May be back on that game now. Chance. My My Munny (5) drops to a career low price tag here and may be worth the $30,000 investment. Comes from a solid pedigree and won just three starts ago over the AW up in Chicago. That could set this one up perfectly for the Turfway Park winter meet upcoming. Some talent here. Bears watching here. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 3-5-1-4 in two smaller units.
4th: 2-7-1/6-1A/4-5…I go right back to the #2 spot here and line up with Restoring Hope (2). This one used to have some real game for the name. Ran 3rd to Vino Rosso in the G2 Wood Memorial in 2018. That’s been awhile ago and now he shows up for $10,000 claiming. But this one has never been offered for this low a tag and still has some class. Work on Oct. 22 was spot on. One more time? Gets the meet’s top rider. See the Pyramids (7) is searching for the right level, too, and this drop could be the remedy. Barn wins with .22% when dropping this much, and it could be a good day for the Lovell barn if this one can add to the party. Does have a win in 5 previous tries here. Grand Design (1) won up at Indy Grand just two races ago against tougher. Moves to the big oval today and has not had much luck here so far. But this one is for the $10,000 level and the only previous try at this level? A win. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 1-6 in two smaller units.
5th: 8-6-2/1-3-7/5-4…Maximum Impact (8) goes for a top barn operation, which is winning at a .30% clip here this meet. This 2YO son of New Year’s Day will be making the career debut and the barn wins with .19% when starting in the MCL ranks. Sire wins with .16% on first try and the world’s best rider — yep, the world’s best — gets the assignment. Look out here. Ike and Jack (6) is a first timer, as well, and comes in for a barn that wins with .38% in the MCL ranks. Works are spot on for this initial try. Dattsafancyfox (2) goes for a barn having a top meet and the sire of this one wins with .30% on first try. Dam has 4 winners from 4 starters, too. Pedigree there. Rider is red hot and leading the jockey standings here. Big chance. I bet the 8-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 8-2 over/underthe 6-1-3-7 in two smaller units.
6th: 6-4/1-5/3-2…You always bet the #6 in the 6th race, right? Well, you do when the numbers add up that way. This time, they do for me. Cousin Greg (6) has run two really good ones in a row and comes in off a solid 2nd here on Sept. 25. Nearly won that one, closing at the wire. Rider is having a top meet and the barn has won with 5 of 18, with 4 seconds and a third. Look out here. Vidal (4) won the last time out and now moves up to face winners for the first time. Barn wins with .10% of those kind. Has speed and is training very well, to boot. Chance. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-4 in the exactas. I will key the 6-4 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
7th: 6-3-2/1-5/4…Defeater (6) is a 3YO son of Union Rags and goes for one of the top people and trainers on any backside — Tom Amoss. This one ran last in the G3 Oklahoma Derby. Was 6th of 8 that day, but facing the toughest comp of his abbreviated career, to date. Race before, was 2nd at Saratoga. Talent is here. Could be coming at the end and the rider does very well for this barn, too. Look out in this spot. Myopic (3) ran 2nd in the G3 Canadian Derby last time out and has ripped off three impressive races in a row, now. Will get the blinkers for the first time and the barn wins with .31% of those. Returns as a beaten favorite here, too, and the barn wins with .27% of those kind. Has speed. Will rumble. Huge threat. Malibu Star (2) is another talented runner in this classy field. Was 3rd last time out at KEE against a solid group. Look at the work on Oct. 8 before the last race. Wow. Good right now. I bettye 6-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 6-3 over/under the 2-1-5-4 in two smaller units.
8th: 4-5-8/7/3-1-2…High Fashion (4) has hit the board in each of the last four outings and has not been worse than 2nd in any of those. Comes in off a 2nd last time out at Saratoga, but that was over the sloppy going. Gets a fast track today and that could spell victory for this 3YO daughter of Union Rags. Sharp work on Nov. 1. Looks poised. Front Street (5) was claimed last time out, when she broke the maiden at Churchill Downs on Oct. 2. Has only the one win in 12 lifetime starts, but does have 5 seconds and 2 thirds to add to the resume. Has faced some good ones in the past, too. Gets Joel Rosario up. Yep. Joel Rosario. Look out. Family Time (8) won the last time out here for trainer Dale Romans. Barn wins with .17% when it won the last outing. This one has 2 wins in 4 tries here and looks well spotted. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 4 over/under the 5-8-7 in two smaller units.
9th: 4-3-7/2-8/1-6/5…Momos (4) ships in from Woodbine to take on this group, and gets the services of Rosario, to boot. In 9 career starts to date, has a 2-2-2 record. One of the misses was in the G2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Sprint last year at KEE. Has speed. If this 3YO son of Distorted Humor converts to the dirt. Look out. May be bye bye. Mighty Mischief (3) is a 3YO son of Into Mischief and comes in with 4 straight Stakes events in a row as experience. Won the G3 Chick Lang at Pimlico during the Preakness week extravaganza. Works are spot on. Barn is heating back up. Lots to like here. Fire Sword (7) goes for trainer Wesley Ward, who had a huge Breeders’ Cup weekend. Gets Tyler Gaffalione up and this one won at KEE last time out for fun. Fun. Would not be a shock to see a repeat here, although the company is better. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2-8 in two smaller units.
10th: 9-8/6-4/1-5/7-3/2…The finale today will be a high-priced MCL event for the 2YOs, and I will saddle up with Hippodrome (9). This 2YO son of Ghostzapper is a home-bred for WinStar Farm and the trainer is having a superb meet. Gets one of the best riders on the grounds up and has the look of a winner. Pedigree is as good as you will find. $150,000? May be worth it. Wicked Genius (8) returns as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .18% of those kind. Rider and trainer have teamed up to go 5-6-1 in the last 20 starts, too. Could add up to another big effort here. I bet the 9-8 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 9-8 over/under the 6-4-1-5 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene