McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on Wednesday, Nov. 16

Stats Are Completely Updated

Here’s our looks at Churchill D(r)owns for this “Hump Day,” which just might be a little more “Snow Day,” or “Chill Day,” or “Freeze Day.” We are just hoping that doesn’t parlay into a “bad day” at the betting windows.

1st: 2/4/5-7/1-6/3…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in the first tilt of the card and with What a Country (2). This 5YO gelding comes into this one off two wins in a row and will make the first start for a new trainer, who picked this one up from the claim box last time out. Drops off that claim for a barn that has gone 2-2-0 in 6 starts here this meet. Rider has gone 1-for-3 for this barn operation and this one does have 3 wins in 9 starts here in the past. Over an “off track,” this one has gone 2-1-0 in 6 starts. I like this one. A lot. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 2 over/under the 4-5-7-1-6-3 in the exactas. More with the 4 than the rest.

2nd: 2-8-5/6/3/4//1-7…Zmuda (2) gets the nod in this one. The 3YO Violence filly has never won over this strip in 6 previous starts, but has never raced for this low a price tag, either. Last time out, this one won at KEE for $20,000. Now, the filly is offered up for $10,000. Barn wins with .23% in the 3rd start off the layoff and with 0-for-2 when dropping off a victory. Mixed signals, but looks the best on paper. Forever Home (8) has hit the board in each of the last three outings and has faced tougher. Won at this same level three starts ago, when she was claimed. Back to the same level here. Look out. Catchusifyoucan (5) has run two good ones in a row, but now steps up to the big leagues here. Barn wins with .23% when it won last time out and with .22% in 76 starts in the claiming ranks this year. In 3 starts here? Has a win. Picks up a huge rider switch. I bet the 2-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-3 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 4-7/1-6/3-5/2…Emerald Express (4) was claimed just three starts ago and won that day over this track surface. Faced tougher in the last two and now drops to the lowest level ever. Drop could be the best hop here. In 5 starts here? Has a 1-2-1 mark. Figures. Summer Splash (7) drops to the same level where the gelding won by 8 easy lengths in Oklahoma two starts ago. Has worked well here since arriving and gets a solid rider switch. In only previous trip over an “off track,” this one has a 2nd. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 4-7 over/under the 1-6-3-5 in two smaller units. 

4th: 1-7/3-6/5/4/2…Enchanted Nile (1) has hit the board in the last four and has two wins in that mix. In two previous tries here, this one has 2 wins. And, in 8 starts at this distance, this one has 4 wins and 1 second and 1 third. Good gate rider will push this one on the front end and the barn wins with .19% when off this long. Look out here. Good Penny (7) won the last time out in Cincy, but now returns to the big leagues here. Has 3 wins in 8 starts here. Won two in a row here in November in ’21. Chance. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win wager here. I will key the 1 over/under the 7-3-6-5-4-2 in the exactas. More with the 7-3-6 than the rest. 

5th: 7-3/1-4/5-6//2…Britain’s Kitten (7) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and this barn wins with .07% of the last 28 to do that. Gets a new rider here, too, and this chance could be the best. Was 2nd on this one here back in May. In 3 tries at this distance, this one has a 2nd and a 3rd. And, has a 3rd in only previous try over an “off track.” Move to the dirt is the key here, for me. Slim Man (3) moves up from the MCL ranks for a top barn operation. Trainer wins with .26% of the last 305 to move up to face winners for the first time ever. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up and he has won with .23% of the last 83 for this barn operation. Has the ability to stalk and should be in a prime spot. I bet the 3 — take note — across the board and then key the 3 over/under the 7-1-4-5-6 in the exactas. More with the 7-1-4 than the rest. 

6th: 7/2-10/5-8/1-3/4/6-9…Lady Baron (7) came with a serious bid in the late going in the career debut at KY Downs on Sept. 10. Has been off since, but the barn wins with .15% when away this long. Gets a top rider up and this barn wins with .28% when going from the MSW ranks into the MCL level. My 2nd “Key Play of the Day.” I will? I bet the 7 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 7 over/under the 2-10-5-8-1-3-4 in the exactas. More with the 2-10 than the rest. 

7th: 1-5-3/6/7-4/2…Cees Get Degrees (1) gets the nod here. The 4YO gelding has been on fire in each of the last 3 outings. Has 2 wins and a 2nd in that span. Won by 5 last time out at KEE. In two previous starts over an “off track,” this one has 2 runner-ups. Ran 2nd to Field Day in two grass starts here in ’21. Has been working great and looks like the speedster of this group. If speed is holding, this one may be gone. Pledgeofallegiance (5) was claimed last time out by HOF trainer. Barn wins with .21% when won the last time out. Trainer’s son gets the mount. Interesting. Has gone 0-for-5 for “dad,” since returning to the saddle. Cold as Hell (3) has run three good ones in row and does have a win over the track. Over an “off track,” though, this one excels. Has a 2-1-1 mark in 5 starts over a wet surface. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

8th: 9-8-2/4-1/3/6-7/5-10…Dazzling Blue (9) will make the career debut here and this daughter of Into Mischief looks like she is primed and ready to fire. Working great in the a.m. and has the breeding to be top shelf. Barn wins with .18% on first starts and gets the go-to rider for this effort. Look out here. Flyin Bessie (8) ran huge in Virginia on the first start. But will face tougher in this spot. Work here on Nov. 2 was spot on and gets a huge rider switch for this effort. Came flying at the end of the debut and could be a threat late. Moment to Shine (2) goes for a barn operator who wins with .26% of 316 starts this year. Wins with .23% on debut, too. This one goes for a top young sire and the filly cost $290,000 to purchase. Lots to like here. I bet the 9-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over (only) the 4-1 in a smaller unit. 

9th: 2-1/4-3-5-6/7…Casa de Goat (2) could help the Brad Cox contingency have a big day. This 3YO daughter of Twirling Candy has all speed and will be making her first appearance since running her on May 21. Cut back to a mile should help and this one won the debut by a whopping 12 lengths. Should love an off going, as well. Look out here. Could be a real good one. Customer Driven (1) could improve here. But will be all out to test the top horse. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 2 over/under the 1-4-3-5-6-7 in the exactas. More with the 1 than the rest. 

10th: 9-8/6-7-2/4-5-10/3/1-11…Recker Point (9) gets the nod here. Ran two good ones before a misfire last time out. Was in the mix early in that one and just seemed to tire late. Work on Oct. 26 was encouraging. Not overly thrilled, but this seems to be a rather lack-luster grouping. Accident (8) could be our first “Upset Special of the Day.” This one is listed at 6-1 in the ML, and could drift a little higher by PT. Has gone 0-for-4 here but picks up a huge rider switch. Will be coming late and that tactic has worked well here in the past. In two starts over an “off track,” this one has a 2nd. Chance. I bet the 9-8 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 9-8 over/under the 6-7-2-4-5-10 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene