||11 / 3-6-6
|2022 Overall — 2120
||2120 / 715-772-993
|Win % of Top Pick
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1355-2120
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 74-108
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 41-108
||41.67% Win / 91.67% ITM
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 12/5-4-2
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 371-560
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 195-560
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 74/34-10-8
||45.95% Win / 70.27% ITM
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 317/ 132-68-31
||41.64% Win / 72.87% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0
||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 12/2-1-2
||16.67% Win / 41.67% ITM
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2
||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2
||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0
||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 47/10-7-6
||21.28% Win / 48.94% ITM
Stats Now Completely Updated
Here’s our looks at Churhcill Downs on Wednesday — as we kick start the grand Thanksgiving week festivities and the conclusion of the 2022 meet at Louisville’s big oval:
1st: 5-1/6/4//2-3…Alfie Solomons (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “big oval” in Louis-Town on this Wednesday, which is far more than a “Hump Day.” This is, after all, Thanksgiving Eve. Warm the turkey. Heat up the ham. Greet the neighbors, family and friends. Get the car heated and ready to head to the track. Best place in town to celebrate this holiday. But, we digress…This 5YO gelding cost a hefty $285,000 at the KEE September Yearling Sale way back in 2018. Has earned about $100,000 of it back before being claimed for a meager $12,500 last time out. Goes to a HOF barn here for the first try and he wins with .19% of the last 390 to do that. Bets the blinkers back on, too, and the barn wins with a whopping .45% of those types. Work here on Nov. 14 was spot on. Spot. On. Enough to convince me. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-1 in the exactas. I will key the 5 over/under the 1-6-4 in two smaller units.
2nd: 12-(14)/7-8-10/6/1-4-(13)/5-9…Let Me Love You (12) is a refrain that I have used with my lovely bride for so many years now. Occasionally, she will comply. Yet, we digress…This 2YO colt has been out 4 times already and has tuned up with a 2nd and a 3rd on the resume. Returns here as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .25% of those kind. Will get blinkers for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .11% of the last 61 to get the shades. Has faced some good ones already and gets the barn’s newest go-to rider up. Enough to convince me. I bet the 12 across the board and then box the 12-14, if the latter draws in from the AE List. If not? I key the 12 over/under the 7-8-10-6-1-4 in the exactas. More with the 7-8-10 than the rest.
3rd: 6-7-1/5-2/4-3…The Club (6) has to be in referencer to The Louisville Thoroughbred Society, right? The posh place in downtown Louisville that caters to the horse crowd; it’s members; and has 12 pari-mutuel machines on the premises for the pleasure of the crowd? Again, we digress…This 3YO Union Rags filly will convert from the grass to the main track here and the barn wins with .10% of the last 88 to do that. Last time she moved to the dirt, she ran 3rd over a sloppy track at Ellis Park, when rain was something we used to see in these here parts. If this one can like the main track? Look out. Donya Know It (7) was claimed last time out for $20,000 and now moves up to the $40,000 price range. That’s a hefty hike for this young trainer, who has just 2 career starts to date. Has run well in the last two and may merit a shot against tougher. Ball Gown (1) is another from the barn of Victoria Oliver and another moving from grass to dirt. This one has only one career start over the main track and that was not productive. Sire can get a dirt runner, though, and the barn’s go-to rider goes to this one. Interesting. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under there 5-2 in two smaller units.
4th: 12-(13)-5/8-4-7-11/6/1-9-10/(14)-2…Mint (12) is what we plan on making this week at the track, but, yep, we digress…This 4YO gelded son of Bodemeister comes in off a journey that the connections would rather forget. Reared at the gate of that one and “slammed” the gate at the beginning. Was not persevered with after that debacle. Gets a new rider here and another good one, at that. Look out here. And, of course, that’s enough to convince me to take a shot. I bet the 12 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 12-13-5 in the exactas and then key the 12 over/under the 13-5-7-4-7-11-6 in two smaller units.
5th: 6-7-1/3-4-5//2…Carmichael (6) has to be named after my great friend, Mark, who toils in Indy and has represented the beer industry up there for years. Has to, right? Digression. This 5YO gelding has run two good ones in a row and three out of the last 4. Has 3 runner-ups in 5 previous outings here, too. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up and this could develop into a very good day for the barn of Victoria Oliver. Big chance here. Bourbon Thunder (7) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and will make the 2nd start off the layoff. Barn wins with .22% in the claiming ranks and this one had a super sharp work on Nov. 18. Should like this company. Big chance here, too. Test Pilot (1) was claimed last time out and the new barn wins with .21% of the last 67 on the first try after the purchase. Gets a top rider up here. Look out. Has a chance here, too. I bet the 6-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3-4 in two smaller units.
6th: 1-6-4/5-2-8/3/7…But He’s Ready (1) — sorry, no clever digressions here — ran a huge one last time out at this same level. If this 3YO son of More Than Ready can duplicate that effort here? Look out. Will make the 2nd start here off the layoff and the barn wins with .19% of the last 919 to do that. Stand for Freedom (6) came with a mighty rush at the end of the last one and could be a tough out late if he can get motivated just a tad earlier here. Rider is having a solid meet, winning at an .18% rate after the first 57 mounts. But? Has won with only .06% of the last 16 for this barn. Ugh. Cyclone (4) ran well last time out, but has gone 0-1-1 in 6 previous tries here. Fits here. But? I bet the 1 across the board and then key the 1 over/under the 6-4-5-2-8-3 in the exactas. More with the 6-4 than the rest.
7th: 1-4-2/9-3-12/11-1-(13)-(15)/8-10-(16)-(14)…Baby Got Backspin (1) goes for a hot barn operation this meet. After the first 25 starts, trainer has gone 6-6-2 and is winning with .24% of the starts. Rider has won with .15% of the last 20 ups for this barn, too. New jockey will muscle from the get-go and that could help this one. Malibu Toast (4) could be the first “Upset Special of the Day.” This one is listed at 6-1 in the ML by the fine folks at Brisnet.com and they know what they are doing over there. This 2YO Tapwrit filly has run 2nd in the first two career starts. Been right there in both. Has speed and can flash it early. Look out. Looks ready. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the extras. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 2-9-3-12-11-1 in two smaller units.
8th: 8/5-2/6-7/3/1-4…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Roderick (8). That would be the #8 horse in the 8th race. Like that? This 4YO gelded son of Into Mischief won at Saratoga two starts ago when claimed by the current connections. Ran against much tougher last time out and now drops back down to the ranks where he is most comfortable. Has speed. Should like this spot. Barn wins with .21% in the 2nd start after a claim purchase. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 8 over/under the 5-2-6-7-3 in the exactas. More with the 5-2 than the rest.
9th: 9/1-7-3-6/4-5-2-8/10…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Marsalis (9). That would be the #9 horse in the 9th race? Like that? Seeing a pattern? This 3Yo son of Curlin has never run a bad one and has 2 wins and 2 seconds in the first four career starts for a HOF trainer. Goes for a top owner and could be the real deal when he gets to Stakes company in the future. Look out here. I bet the 9 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 9 over/under the 1-7-3-6 in the exactas.
10th: 9-5/6/7/8-1-2/11/3-4…The day’s finale is a 7-furlong MSW event for the 2YOs, and I truly wish I loved the #10 here. But I don’t. Sorry. Just one stall to the inside is Own the Field (9). This son of KY Derby winner Always Dreaming comes in off a near-miss 3rd in the career debut. That was over the sod at Saratoga. Moves to a new barn here and a youngster just starting his own shed row operation. With any luck, this one could be a tough out here. Runner-up in the debut came right back to win the next outing. Has worked well here. Like the rider choice. Harold’s Cloud (5) missed by a nose last time out and gets a new rider up for this occasion. Worked at the Fair Grounds on Nov. 16 and a week later is up here again. Wow. Frequent travel miles. Seems as if the connections could see this one coming before heading to Cajunville? I bet the 9-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 9-5 over/under the 6-7 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Geno