Total Day Results 9 / 2-4-5
2021 Overall 1,731 1731 / 650-623-817
Win % of Top Pick 37.55%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 40.25%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,175-1,731 67.88%
2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 107-157 68.15%
2021 Top Selections Win / CD 49-157 31.21%
“Key Horses” @ CD 26/11-6-0 42.31% Win / 65.38% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 268/ 121-60-24 45.15% Win / 76.49% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ CD 10/0-1-1 00.00% Win / 20.00% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0 19.05% Win / 23.81% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

We will rock and roll into this Thanksgiving Week of Celebration with a great deal of gratitude, if not grace. We have so much to be thankful for, and to. have so much to be thankful for, and to. There are not enough words or spaces on this blank page to adequately give all those that deserve recognition their respect and just due.

Just know that I am so very thankful. To you, you actually do read these pages and ask for these picks. You mean the world to me. Truly. You do. And, I appreciate your kindness; responses; updates; comments; and encouragement more than you can ever know.

Just know that I am so very thankful. To the “big person” upstairs, who has, for some reason, felt compelled to leave me here on this plush green earth and do what I can for those that I can do it for.

Just know that I am so very thankful. To my family. To my most wonderful and beautiful wife, who must endure me more than the rest. To my son(s) and daughter, whom I love so very much and more than they will ever, ever know. To my grandsons, whom I look at and admire without hesitation or limitation. They are our future. I hope we all can leave them a chance to do their thing.

Just know that I am so very thankful.

This week is set aside for giving thanks. And, this week, I will give. Lots.

Here’s our picks for Churchill Downs on Wednesday. I hope that I can give you a few winners and a few dollars to pack in your pocket. Just know that I am trying hard.

Here’s our looks:

1st: 3-7-5/1-6-2/4…Bertrada (3) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louisville on Wednesday. This 3YO daughter of Violence comes in off a nice 2nd at this same level last time out. Gets another top rider to take the irons here. Does not have a win at CD in 3 previous tries, but does have a 3rd. Beyond a Million (7) gets the call from one of the hottest trainers on the grounds. Has won with .32% of the last 34 to start at Churchill Downs. This one drops from the $30,000 level to the $20,000 tag here and just won over this strip two starts ago to break the maiden by a whopping 12 lengths. Look out. Jump Into the Fire (5) moves up to face winners for the first time here. Won and was claimed last time out, but the claim was voided. Work on Nov. 10 was spot on. Looks good right now. I bet the 7 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7 over/under the 3-5-1-6-2 in two smaller units.

2nd: 3-4/7-6/2/1…Becauseofthebrave (3) was claimed last time out and now drops to a lower price tag here. Barn wins with .40% — get that number — when dropping off the claim. Barn is having a very solid meet — winning at .25% rate with just 12 starters — and wins with .26% on the first start after the purchase. Adds up to a contender for me. Pacific Grove (4) is a 2YO daughter of Distorted Humor and carries some value into this one, as well. Ran a very nice 2nd at Belmont Park last time out at this same price point. Could be a tough out here when a repeat performance. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. 

3rd: 2-6/5-1/4/3…Microcap (2) won the last time out against a solid group of allowance-optional claimers. Returns to Churchill Downs here, and has a win in 3 previous tries over this strip. Barn is whiffing this meet at 0-for-14 rate, but has won with .13% of 83 starters this year and the rider switch good be a good one. Last time this jockey was up? Won at the Fair Grounds. My Bets (6) has hit the board in each of the last five outings and has not been worse than 2nd in any of those. Has 3 seconds in 3 tries here. So what to do? Bet 2nd, right? I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-6 in the exactas. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 5-1-4 in two smaller units.

4th: 1-5/4-3-2/6-7…In Dreams (1) comes from the talented barn of Brad Cox, and this 2YO son of Frosted nearly won at this same level last time out. The cutback in distance sure looks like it could help this speedster, who carved out a :22 flat first quarter last time out. Gets a move to the barn’s go-to rider here. Look out. Atras (5) is a deep closer and will have to get motivated a bit earlier than the last time out at this distance. That was over a muddy track. Maybe if it dries out? I bet the 1 across the board and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed. I box the 1-5 in the exactas, too.

5th: 6-1/5-7/3-4/2…Spheroid (6) won here just two starts back and was closing with a purpose in the last outing, as well. Just couldn’t get the right hole to open up. Will be rallying off the pace, and will need some racing luck, but the jockey who has done the best returns here. Eastside Cool (1) drops in class for this one and nearly won here just two starts ago. Has 2 seconds in 4 tries here and the barn wins with .20% of the last 74 to start in the claiming ranks. Chance. I bet the 6-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-1 over/under the 5-7-3-4 in two smaller units.

6th: 1-7-9/10/6-12-8-3/11-2-4-5…I go back to the railbirds here and saddle up with Honey Run (6). This 2YO Keen Ice filly drops into the MCL ranks for the first time, and the barn wins with .17% of those kind. Rider is having a superb meet and has gone 3-0-3 in the last 9 for this barn. Big shot here. Howboutdemapples (7) gets a huge rider switch for this affair and has gone 3-3-0 in the last 9 for this trainer. May improve with the cutback in distance here, too. Barn wins with .24% when dropping this much at one time. One to beat. I bet the 1-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 10 in two smaller units.

7th: 3-6-1/2/5-7/4…Its Cold in Dehere (3) drops into the claiming ranks again and won at this level just two starts ago. Barn is having a super meet, and this one has gone 4-1-2 in 8 starts here. Looks good right now. has hit the board in each of the last 3 and 4 of the last 5. Has 3 wins in that mix. Semble Juste (6) ran huge the last 3 times out. Loves the off going, it seems, and there is always some moisture in the track at this time of year. Rider is having a super meet and has won with .29% of the last 72 for this barn. Watch out. I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units.

8th: 4-7/5-2/8-1-1A/3-6…Bourbon Thunder (4) gets the nod and I am sure hoping this 3YO gelded son of Quality Road can get the job done for one of the top trainers in the game and a class act. Barn has gone 0-for-32 this meet. Ouch. But these peeps deserve so much better and more. This gelding comes in off a 2nd in a Stakes event here in September. Soundly beaten that day by King Fury, but that one is running in a G1 later this week. Rooting like crazy here. Carillo (7) is a 3YO son of Union Rags and rates a chance with the switch to the world’s best rider. Working good. Barn heating up. Adds up to a threat. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-7 in the exactas. I will key the 4-7 over/under the 5-2-8-1 in two smaller units.

9th: 5-6-9/10-7-11/12-8/1-4-3/2-1A…Fan Club (5) gets the check in the day’s finale. This 3YO son of Street Sense has nearly won each of the last two outings and now switches barns to the world-class Brad Cox operation. Works are modest and the barn’s go-to rider gets the nod. Blinkers added for the first time. Barn wins with .27% of the last 148 to get the shades. My choice. Carmel Crush (6) is a 3YO gelded son of California Chrome, who has posted 3 seconds and a third in the career so far. Has been knocking on that door, but has not kicked it in as of yet. Barn wins with .35% of those that switch from a sprint distance to a route . Could be the difference. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 9-10-7-11 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene