|Total Day Results||11/ 2-3-6|
|2021 Overall 1,559||1559 / 592-556-745|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.97%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.47%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1060-1,559||67.99%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 7-11||63.64%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 2-11||18.18%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 0/0-0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 238/ 108-54-23||45.38% Win / 77.31% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ CD 3/0-0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (10-30-21) 18/4-0-0||22.22% Win / 22.22% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM|
We kick off Breeders’ Cup Week with a return to our regular programming — the Churchill Downs’ November Meet. Without a doubt, this is one of the best race meets in the country and the year, overall.
Let’s just say this up front:
I have handicapped a lot of races and so many horses already this week. Breeders’ Cup is not for the weak of heart or the weary of eyes.
But I am so very happy to announce that I have now completed that task, and will be posting my first “Breeders’ Cup 2021 Spreadsheet” here later today. I will do some tweaking before the “big days” on Friday and Saturday.
If you have the chance, either come see us at the LTS on Thursday night or tune in as we will “live feed” that Handicapping “Fireside Chat” from the friendly confines of the LTS. Starts at 6:30 p.m. EST Thursday. We will have a stellar panel to give you our thoughts.
Here’s a look at today’s card at Churchill Downs. Eyes are back in focus now:
1st: 2-4/3/5-1/6…Mama Lou (2) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter. This 3YO filly drops to half the price as the last out and back to the level where she won at two starts ago. Has a 1-1-0 record in two previous tries here. Love the rider up. My pick. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-4 in the exactas. I will key the 2-4 over/under the 3 in two smaller units.
2nd: 7-6/9-8-1-10/2/3-4-11-5…Eclipsed (7) is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time and I love this one. Barn wins with .19% when making this drop. Solid rider up and the layoff could freshen this one up. Barn wins with .12% off the break. Sweet Annabella (6) could give the rider the natural Daily Double. This one ran huge last time out and nearly won. Working well since. One to beat. I bet the 7-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 7-6 over/under the 9-8-1-10-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-6/4-5/1-2/3…Shaniah (7) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one was claimed last time out when she nearly won for $30,000. Upped to $40,000 here and has to run better. But this one has been very good in the last two and the blinkers come off here. Barn wins with .15% of those kind. I bet the 7-6 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 7-6 over/under the 4-5-1-2 in two smaller units.
4th: 2-5/4-6-3/1…Flags Up (2) comes out of a Stakes race that had some real salty dogs in it — including the “Place” horse, who came right back to win a Stakes at Keeneland. Should like this return to normal opponents. Look out here. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-5 in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units.
5th: 7-10/5-4-1-2/3-9/6-8…Irish Hokie (7) goes for a top barn operator and drops to the claiming ranks here. Should fit with these very nicely and gets a rider who has won with .21% of the last 24 mounts for this operation. Could be a handful here. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the 7-10 in the exactas. I will key the 7-10 over/under the 5-4-1-2-3 in two smaller units.
6th: 3-6-7/2-1-5/4…Heart Rhythm (3) is a solid ML favorite, and should be tough shipping in for this one from the winning effort last out at KEE. Has not been worse than 2nd in the last 5 outs. Nice. Absolute Chaos (6) has speed. Look for this one to romp early. Can he hold on? I think he gives them a rush. Mo’s Mojo (7) drops off the last effort, too, and this one has a 1-1-1 record in 9 previous runs here. I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 3-6 over/under the 7-2-1-5-4 in two smaller units.
7th: 5-2-8/1-11-1A/10-6-4-3…Buckingham Prince (5) has been firing at them in the last three and should be a tough out here with the meet’s top rider climbing up once again. Loses the blinkers here and the barn wins with .21% of those kind. Also returns as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .11% of those kind. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 5 over/under the 2-8-1-11-1A-10 in two smaller units.
8th: 1A-1-11/10/9-8-7/3-2-5/4-6…Royal Tryst (1A) gets back to the dirt here and I think this one prefers this surface. Won here in September over the main track. Barn wins with .20% when making this surface switch, too. Gets a hot rider, who has won with .27% for this barn over the last 67 outs. Nice. Speightstown Again (1) is one that could be worthy of this claim price. Won at Turfway Park just two starts ago and that place will be revving up again in December. I bet the entry to win/place/show and then box the entry-11 in the exactas. I will key the 1A-1-11 over/under the 10 in two smaller units.
9th: 3-8/6-1-2/5-7/4…Toccata (3) gets the nod here for the barn of Joe Sharp. This one won the last three and the barn wins with .20% when it won the previous time out. This one is working lights out, too. Looks super sharp and a hot rider gets the return assignment. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top two numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
10th: 6-7/5-11-9-2-3/1-4/8-10…Gigging (6) gets the slight edge here. This one has run here 10 previous times and has a 2-1-3 mark. At the distance? A little less successful. Still, this one has run two good ones in a row and looks good right now. Cabertoss (7) is my last “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one won the last time out at KEE and now comes here where he owns a win in two previous tries. Top rider returns. Look out here at a square price. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 5-11-9-2-3 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene