Day’s Results 8 / 2-2-3
2022 Overall — 1931 1931 / 651-704-907
Win % of Top Pick 33.71%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.05%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1227-1931 63.54%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE  — 82-132 62.12%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE 46-132 34.85%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 15/7-3-3 46.67% Win / 86.67% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 336-512 65.63%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 178-512 34.77%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 67/27-10-8 40.30% Win / 67.16% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  296/ 120-64-29 40.54% Win / 71.96% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 11/2-1-1 18.18% Win / 36.36% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2 28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2 27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0 00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 46/10-7-5 21.74% Win / 47.83% ITM

(Stats to be updated with 2 days of Keeneland results and Saturday’s card at Horseshoe Indianapolis…coming soon)

Here’s our looks at the best racing oval in the entire world — Churhcill Downs — on this Sunday “Fun Day” full of fun with the 2YOs all over the place. Love handicapping the “babies.” Never know what may happen. Sure to be some good ones emerge into potential stars. Sure to be some upsets along the way. Sure to be exciting.

1st: 7-3-8/2-4-11/10-1-9/5-12-6…On this day, which is reserved for the 2YOs running short, long, and in-between, we kick start the beginning of a very thrilling time of year with a $120,000 MSW event going 5 furlongs over the main track for the 2YOs. I line up with Talladega (7), a 2YO son of Into Mischief. This one sold at the 2021 KEE September Yearling Sale for a tidy sum of $850,000. Working super for this first try and gets a solid rider up for the journey. Sharp work on Oct. 23. Barn wins with .13% on first ask. Dam of this colt has 6 winners from 6 starters and 2 Stakes winners. Nice. Birthday Munnings (3) is a first-time gelding and comes in off two straight 5ths to begin the career. If the “equipment change” helps? Look out here at a price. Onasa (8) goes for a barn that has won with .26% of 301 starters this year. Dam of this colt has 3 winners from 5 starters and 1 Stakes winner. Sharp works coming in. Look out. I bet the 7-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-4-11 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 4-2-11/(16)-(15)-(13)/7-9-12/1-8-10/6-5…Parody (4) is another youngster who will make the debut for the barn of Rodolphe Brisset. Barn is winning at a .20% rate after 201 starts this year and this is a 2YO daughter of Distorted Humor. Work on Oct. 23 was spot on. Gets a top rider. Must use for me. Doughty (2) ran well in the debut here on July 1. Been off since. But works are solid coming into this one. Look at move here on Oct. 1. First of 111? Wow. Inventing Anna (11) has run 3 times already and has a 2nd and 3rd on the resume. Experience helps. I bet the 4-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over the AE horses, if they get in, in two smaller units. 

3rd: 4-8/7/2-6/5-10-11-9/12/3…Towhead  (4) was once considered a candidate to run in the Breeders’ Cup. Will move from the sod to the main track here and that could be a challenge. But this barn does well with surface switches and this one has two nice races over this track in the Spring/Summer. Like the recent works. Threat. Tiny Temper (8) got whipped at the gate in the first start, but came with a late surge. Impressive that day, even in defeat. Returns here as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .11% of those kind. Rider back up. Huge threat with a clean beginning. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exactas. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 7 in two smaller units. 

4th: 3-1-(15)/8-10/5-2-7-12-(13)/11/4-6…Bo Derek (3) is the name of this daughter of Speightstown. Must be a looker. Could be a huge runner, too. Anytime someone like her lends her name to a steed? Got to think they could be special. This one has a super work coming in. Connections paid $900,000 for this beauty. I go here. For lots of reasons. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 1-15-8-10-5-2-7 in two more. Love the 3. 

5th: 7-1-4/(14)/2-3-11-(13)/5-8/12…Pyrenees (7) comes in off a nice 2nd when stretched out to the two turns for the first time. This son of Into Mischief is a home bred and looks like he could be coming into his own. Love the work on Oct. 22. Gets a top rider, who is hot right now, up for the first time. Look out here. Magnificent Mile (1) ran behind our top pick last time out. Bumped at the start of that one and was definitely compromised from making a forward move early — which this son of Quality Road may try to do from the rail here. New rider may push the button. This one cost $800,000 as a yearling. Bengals Go (4) gets the blinkers on for the first time and the barn wins with .10% of the last 58 to get the shades for the first time. Could improve off the first effort. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 14, if that one gets in. 

6th: 7-3/5/1-2/6/4//8…Rags to Riches Stakes…This is a two-turn Stakes event for the 2YO fillies and I will saddle up with Fun and Feisty (7). I toss the G1 experience. Never got into that one over a speed-favoring track. Returns home where she can stretch her legs early and fly late. And, she is prone to do that. Love this one’s chances here. Stellar Lady (3) is my “Upset Special of the Day.” Times 2. This one is listed at 20-1 in the ML by I’ll take half those odds. Another toss the Grade 1 last time out. Never got untacked. But look at the first start ever. Ran 2nd to Leave No Trace. That one is quality control and may be in the Breeders’ Cup. I like this one. A lot. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 7-3 over/under the 5 in two smaller units. 

7th: 8-(14)-(13)/11-10-1/2/3…Joking Way (8) nearly won the debut here on Sept. 22. Now, the barn comes back and lines up again with a new rider in the saddle. Interesting. This trainer/jockey combo has gone 2-2-0 in the last 7 races and this one could be a match made in the winner’s circle. If the AE Horses get in, I use. If not…I bet the 8 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 8 over/under the 11-10-1-2-3. More with the 11-10-1.

8th: 5-6-11/7-10-9-1/4…Must Be the Money (5) was absolutely left at the gate in the career debut and still managed to get himself together in time to get up and win at 6-furlongs. Wow. Visually impressive. Bettors knew that the barn liked this one, too. Stretches out here and that should not be an issue. See if the connections load up again. If they do? I am going to bet right along. Tapit’s Conquest (6) has run two super good races to begin the career and powered home an easy winner with the stretch out last time. Barn wins with .25% of the last 303 to move up and face winners for the first time. Must use, for me. Echo Again (11) could be another top runner from the sire Gun Runner. This one won on debut at Saratoga by nearly 7 lengths. Came back to run here in the G3 Iroquois and spit the bit, when stretching out. Returns here as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .25% of the last 963 to do that. I bet the 5-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. Twice. 

9th: 9/1-7-2/5-6/3-8/4…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Pretty Mischievous (9). This 2YO daughter of Into Mischief is a home-bred for Godolphin Stables and comes into this one off an impressive win in the career debut. Roared to an easy 21/4-length win and it could have been more, if just asked. Looks like this one could be liker her mother — a nice Stakes winner in her own right. I load. And, I bet the 9 to win/place and key the 9 over/under the 1-7-2-5-6 in the exactas. More with the 1-7-2 than the others. 

10th: 3-9-6/1-2-5-7/4-8-10…G3 Street Sense Stakes…This is a 11/16-mile Stakes event for the 2YOs and kicks off another leg of the “Trip to the Kentucky Derby.” I go with Jace’s Road (3) here. This 2Yo son of Quality Road cost $510,000 at the 2021 KEE September Yearling Sale and looks like he is well worth the investment. Won the debut by over 6. Came right back to run very well in the first two-turn event here in September. Winner of that one is in the Breeders’ Cup. Look out here. Barn wins with .30% in the 2nd route race. Honed (9) is a legit “Upset Special of the Day” candidate. This 2YO has a win over an “off track” and he is sure to get one on this not-so-sunny Sunday. Toss the G1 experience. Never into that one over a speed-favoring track. Could be a huge threat late. Red Route One (6) ran well to be a distant 3rd in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity. Those top 2 in that race are serious runners. I bet the 3-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 3-9 over/under the 6-1-2-5-7 in two smaller units. 

11th: 2-8-10/(13)-(14)/4-7-11/9…Desert Wolf (2) gets the nod in the day’s finale. This 2YO hails from the barn of HOF trainer Todd Pletcher, who had a super meet at KEE in October. Look for this one to be a tough out here. Parkway (8) picks up a top rider here for a HOF trainer. Ran against a salty group in debut at Saratoga. Should improve off that effort. Mo Saturdays (10) could give “mo” on this Sunday. Ran well in first two efforts. But could be flying late here. I bet the 2-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the AE Listed horses, if they get in. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene