|Total Day Results||9 / 4-3-1|
|1242 / 463-444-610|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.28%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.71%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 833-1,242||67.07%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / EP 134-186||72.04%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / EP 75-186||40.32%|
|“Key Horses” @ EP 25/ 7-7-5||28.00% Win / 76.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 184/ 80-44-17||43.48% Win / 76.63% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ EP 32/3-7-3||.094% Win / 40.63% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (8–4-21) 6/2-0-0||33.33% Win / 33.33% ITM|
We start another fun-filled long weekend of Thoroughbred racing at the ole’ “Pea Patch” on Friday. And, another exciting card has been created by Ellis Park’s fine Racing Secretary, Dan Bork.
Here’s a look at our picks. And, here’s hoping we have some fun.
1st: 5-1-6/4-7/(8)-2-3…The ole’ lid-lifter at the “Pea Patch” on Friday is a 1-mile event over the sod and I saddle up with T J Munnings (5). This 3YO didn’t fire much in the last outing, but drops from the $16,000 level all the way to the pre-bargain bin and $10,000 price tag. Won at Tampa in late March to break the maiden and has a win and a second in three tries over the grass. Barn is having good success here this meet with a 3-2-3 mark in just 13 starts. Rider is having a solid meet. Should fit with these. Count Your Pennies (1). This 4YO gelded son of Super Saver comes in off a rather depressing run in Cincy on July 30. But never got untracked in that affair. Drops a bit lower in price tag here, and won just two starts ago and ran a huge one at Churchill Downs the race before. In 16 career starts, has only one win. But does have 4 seconds and 3 thirds on the resume, too. Underneath? Like to Destiny (6) comes from the barn of Wesley Ward, who has won two of four here this meet. Moves up in class and comes off an extended layup, which would be downsides for most other barns. But Ward wins with .24% coming off the bench and with .20% when getting the price hike. Threat. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box the top three numbers in the exactas. I will key the 5-1-6 over/under the 4-7 in two smaller units.
2nd: 4-2-3/1A-1/5…Collonator (4) rolls into this one off a string of solid runs over the past 7.5 months. In that time, the 5YO gelding has raced 7 times. Has hit the board in 6 of them, with a 4th. Only one win in the mix, but has run up against some tough customers, too. Can flash speed or come from off the pace, too. Gets a pilot who has had success with this one in the past. In two previous tries here, has a second and a third. For the meet? Barn is 5-3-5 in 19 outs. Hot. Spycraft (2) was claimed last time out, and that was a winning performance here on July 10. Barn wins with .27% with the first try after a purchase. Has speed and can stalk, but the rider leaves here and goes to our top pick. Hmmm. Dennis’ Moment (3) was once considered one of the top prospects in our sport. Fell — literally — out of the gate in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita on Nov. 1, 2019 and has fallen from grace since. Has been off since last November, but is working lights out. The sprint distance may be what the DR orders for this one. I’ll be back supporting. One of my favs. But the barn? One for 33 this meet. Hmmm. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4-3 over/u under the 2-1-5 in two smaller units.
3rd: 4-6/1-3-7/5-8/2…This is another grass event and I go with Gingrich (4). This 2Yo son of Mr. Speaker nearly won last time out when traveling 11/16-miles. Cuts back in the distance category to a flat mile here and that should help the effort. Barn wins with .50% of the last 12 to make the 2nd route race, an the rider is 2-1-2 in the last 8 rides here. Fantastic grass rider and should milk a little more ground of this one here. One to beat, IMO. Lemonadeatthelatch (6) will be making the career debut in this spot for the Brad Cox connections. Barn has won with .30% of the first 43 starters here this meet, and with .19% of those that make the career debut on the sod. Works are spot on and gets a rider who has won with .32% of the last 53 mounts for this trainer. Can’t leave out. Can you? I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 4-6 over/under the 1-3-7-5-8-2 in two smaller units.
4th: 7/3-1-4/2-5/8-6…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes right here with Duplicitious (7). This 4YO Twirling Candy filly has run two 4ths in a row and has not hit the board since breaking the wire first at Churchill Downs on May 22 for a $30,000 tag. Won by 6 that day and has had some traffic issues in the past. Last time out, had to be steadied at the 1/2-mile marker. Significantly. Rider is just 3-for-52 this meet and struggling. But this could be the one to right that ship, too. In 5 trips at this distance? Two wins and two thirds. I’m in. Sold. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 3-1-4.
5th: 5-3/4-6/7-2/8-1…This is a 5.5-furlong grass event and I saddle up with Foliage (5). This 3YO colt is by one of my most favorite sires and has run over the grass just twice so far. Was 2nd by a neck at Churchill Downs last September and was a troubled 4th last time out when racing for the first time in 9 months. Should be more fit for this encounter and the barn wins with .20% in the 2nd start off a layup. Gets the Lasix for the 2nd time, too, and the barn wins with .33% of those kind. Look out here. Could be a show stopper. Hope and Dignity (3) raced over the sod for the first time ever last time out and won by a neck to break the maiden. But? Was DQ’d in that one for drifting out near the wire and was dropped to 2nd. Gets a new pilot here and one that performs well for this barn, too. Has speed. Will travel. Returns to the grass here. Chance. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-3 in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 5-3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
6th: 8-(3)-1-5/6-10/9/1A-7-2/4…Howboutdemapples (8) nearly pulled off the win in the career debut here on July 10. Led nearing the wire and was necked at the line. Gets a new rider up here and one who is doing well for the HOF operation. Barn wins with .25% of those returning to the gate as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .22% in the MSW company, too. Bred to like this spot. Golden Sights (3) just ran last on Aug. 15 and will probably skip this spot, considering that she ran a good 2nd in that one. But if she wheels back in this spot, and is not scratched, look out. Ran huge in the Debutante. Matareya (1) is a first-timer from the barn of Brad Cox. Homebred for Godolphin Stables. Bred to like and run. I use. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box the top 2 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-10-9 in two smaller units.
7th: 9-6/7-4/2-8-5/1-3…Win for the Money (9) is a first time starter for trainer Mark Casse, who is winning at a .20% rate here after 15 starts this meet. Working lights out here, with a bullet drill here on Aug. 7 and gets a rider who is winning at a .29% rate after 49 mounts this meet. Barn wins with .15% of the last 498 runners to make the first start. Levee Proud (6) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This is another first timer and the ML odds are a whopping 12-1, according to my great friends over at Brisnet.com. Barn wins with .25% of those that debut on the sod and with .23% with first time starters overall. Gets a top rider here and the works are spot on. Spot. On. I use. I bet the 9-6 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 9-6 over/under the 7-4-2-8-5 in two smaller units.
8th: 5-7-(10)/4-9-1/8-2-6/3-1A…The last event of the day is a 1-mile grass event and I will go with Kittansett (5). This one comes from the Brad Cox barn and gets the riding services of Florent Geroux. They have teamed up to win at a .32% rate over the last 53 starts. This one has not been out since late February. But has won off a layup before and the trainer wins at a .23% rate off the bench. Works are spot on. Look for this one to be a tough out. Momoa (7) broke the maiden here last time out and did so with a gate-to-wire win — drawing off at the end. Barn is having a very nice meet and this one could return with another circle photo. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-7 in the exactas. I will key the 5-7 over/under the 10-4-9-1-8-2-6 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene