Total Day Results 11/ 8-3-4
2021 Overall 1,280 1280 / 479-455-630
Win % of Top Pick 37.42%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 40.73%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 865-1,280 67.58%
2021 Top Selection ITM / EP 146-202 72.28%
2021 Top Selections Win / EP 78-202 38.61%
“Key Horses” @ EP 28/ 8-8-6 28.57% Win / 78.57% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 192/ 84-45-20 43.75% Win / 77.60% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ EP 33/3-7-3 .09% Win / 39.39% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (8-26-21) 9/3-0-0 33.33% Win / 33.33% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-21-21) 2/0-1-0 0.00% Win / 50.00% ITM

We had a wonderful day — per usual — at Indy Grand on Wednesday. And, to top it off, we picked 8 winners out of the 11 races carded on the day, which went to the post at 10 a.m. EST.

Early birds = worms.

Eight wins. Eleven races. Not bad.

But I would have exchanged it all for a win in the most important race of the day for me and us — the Peony Stakes — which included our very own Diamond Solitaire. But…such is racing.

So, we are back at it on Friday, as we move down to the ole’ “Pea Patch.” Here’s our looks:

1st: 7-1-5/2/3-4…The lid-lifter at the ole “Pea Patch” is a 1-mile turf event for the MCL 2YOs. I will saddle up with Carnivore (7), a son of Runhappy. Pedigree does not scream “turf,” but this one ran a better-than-looks 6th on debut at Indy Grand in the debut race on Aug. 9. Left at the gate in that one and did move up to be respectable at the finish. Gets a shift to Ellis Park here and a move to the grass, too. Barn wins with .11% when going to the sod for the first time. Work on Aug. 19 was spot on. This one could have stayed in Indy, but the connections decide to ship here for this one. Interesting. Looks to be doing good. Brazil Nut (1) is the ML favorite and figures here for a trainer looking for the first win of 2021. Has had only 11 starts this year. But zero wins. This one moves to the grass for the first time, too. Dam of this one has a turf winner from the first three starters, though, and looks to have a better grass background. Exclaim (5) will go to the sod for the first time, as well, and the barn wins with .13% of those. Moves out to the route distance for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .14% of those. Gets a top grass rider up for the first time. Could be a pace factor. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over / under the 2 in two smaller units.

2nd: 4-3-2…This may be one of the weakest fields that I have studied in quite some time. Flip a coin. Toss a dart. Roll the dice. Who knows. But since we are handicapping, I will most definitively state that there will be a winner of this race, if they, indeed, run it. That being written, I will give the slight edge to Dominar (4). This one drops from the $16,000 tag all the way to the $7,500 level here. Barn is 0-for-5 when dropping this much at once this year. But still, all in all, this one figures to have the edge. Should lay down the early fractions. Will have to catch. Amigo Mike (3) goes for a trainer who has 2 wins in 6 starts here this meet. Not bad at all. Gets a rider who has 2 wins in 4 starts this meet. Should be better in the 2nd 2021 start. Chance. Plonder (2) drops from the $12,500 level. Has never been close at the wire in the first 6 career starts. Never close. But such is the case in this race. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. 

3rd: 5/2-1/4-6…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here in this 5.5-furlong turf sprint — Parking Ticket (5). This 9YO mare — yep, 9YO — has raced 48 times in her career, to date. Has a record of 6-2-10. Will drop from the starter allowance ranks to the bargain bin here. Has never been offered up for this low a price, but the barn wins with .22% of those moving from the dirt to the sod. Gets a top grass rider. And…the mare has a win in three previous tries over the grass. My solid pick. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in the exactas. 

4th: 1-7-5/6-4/2-3…This is another 1-mile turf event and I will give the edge to Chrome Finish (1). This 3YO son of California Chrome ran a solid 2nd against tougher here two races ago. Nearly won that encounter and the “show” horse that day came right back to win the next outing. This one faltered when stretched out farther last time out. Now, cuts back to the same distance as the good effort. Nice rider switch and should fit nicely with this grouping. Dover Strait (7) ran a super nice 2nd here last time out. Came running at the end of that one to miss by 1/2-length. Top grass rider takes the reins back and will get the Lasix for the 2nd time. Barn wins with .17% of those kind. Look out here. Command Central (5) has had 11 previous tries to break the maiden, and is still looking for that first trip to the “circle.” But this one has run really well in two of the last three outings. Has speed and that is always dangerous. Barn is finally starting to break out of the meet-long doldrums. Could get a piece here. I bet the 1-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-4 in two smaller units.

5th: 5-4-3/6/1-2…Just a Irish Lad (5) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” I have not fared well with this category this meet on the “win” side of the ledger, but the “long shots” have done OK hitting the board, and have added true value to the exotics equation. This 3YO son of Paddy O’Prado goes for a top barn operation, which has won with .20% of its’ first 25 starts here this meet. Has been perfect in the first two starts of the career. Won easily here on July 31. Could be tough again here with a repeat of that effort. Father G (4) is another longshot possibility. This one has two thirds in the last three starts and ran OK in the 2021 debut at Belterra on July 22. Barn wins with .30% in the second start off the layup. Barn also wins at .29% when going from a sprint to a route. I love the way this trainer gets his horses ready and how he keeps them sharp. Look out here. Tkotchke (3) gets a route distance for the first time and the barn wins with .20% when going from two sprints into a distance race. Rider is starting to heat up a tad. Chance. I bet the 5-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

6th: 4-5-6/2-1-3…This is another 5.5-furlong sprint over the grass, and this one is being held for the 2YO fillies. I give the edge to Robinhill (4) — who is a first time starter for the barn of Brad Cox. This daughter of Kitten’s Joy comes from a dam who has 2 turf winners from the first 5 starters. Has been prepping well in the a.m. Should be ready for this tilt. Devilly (5) is another first timer, and this one has trained very well on these grounds. Breeding suggests she should like the sod and the barn wins with .13% when debuting on the grass. Nice rider choice. Happy Out (6) is our second “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one is a first timer, as well, but is coming off a brilliant work at KEE on Aug. 21. Barn has won with .23% when it starts them out on the grass. In 5 starts here this meet, barn has 2 wins. Chance, too. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-1 in two smaller units.

7th: 7-11/9-2-10/5-1-6-1A/8-2/4…This is a very nice MSW event for the 2YO fillies and will be contested at 1 mile over the main track. I go with Juju’s Map (7), who will be making the 2nd career start here. I touted this one the first time, and she ran a solid second as the beaten favorite. Winner that day was very, very impressive. Now, this one stretches out to the route distance and this one should appreciate that extra ground. Like the rider choice. Barn wins with .33% when returning as a beaten favorite and is winning at a .31% rate this meet. My solid pick. Lovely Lisa (11) is returning for the 2nd time here, too. Ran 3rd in the debut and was behind our top pick by a distant 6 lengths in that one. Works are good enough and the barn wins with .23% on the 2nd career start. Chance. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-11 in the exactas. I will key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 11-9-2-10. Little less with the 5-1-6-1A. 

8th: 2-6-9/3-5/8-7/10-1…The final race of the day is a 1-mile turf event on the turf course for the fillies and mares 3YOs & Up. Amiche (2) is my top pick. This daughter of Malibu Moon cost $325,000 to purchase at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton August Sale at Saratoga. Has raced only 3 times so far. Last time out was the 2021 debut and she nearly won going 11/16-miles. Cuts back in distance here and has the speed to carry them all the way. Looks like she is ready and gets a switch to a top grass rider. Closet Shopper (6) goes for the 9th time here. Has ad her chances. But this daughter of Tapit — and she cost $600,000 to purchase at the 2019 KEE September Sale — did take a few to clear the webs. Ran a solid 2nd here last time over the slop. Gets the grass for the first time here, and the barn wins with .13% of those. Look here. Temper Time (9) ran a very good one last time out when getting back to the grass. Just nipped at the wire. Could be a factor here. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-5 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene