Days Results 9 / 1-4-7
2023 Overall — 1,195 1195 / 408-417-545
Win % of Top Pick 34.14%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 38.21%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 749-1,195 62.68%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 4-7 57.14%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 1-7 14.29%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 63-99 63.64%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 38-99 38.38%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135 64.44%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135 33.33%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 88-128 68.75%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 47-128 36.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 63.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 32.09%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 50.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 33.33%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 50% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 24/13-2-3 54.17% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 33/12-6-2 36.36% Win / 60.61% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 179/77-34-18 43.02% Win / 72.07% ITM

(Stats to be updated from Ellis Park’s Tuesday card)

Here’s our looks at the ole’ “Pea Patch” on this Friday kick-start to Fancy Farm weekend — where the speeches only hope to be as hot as the weather in Graves County.

1st: 4-5/2-6//1/3-7…Liams Lad (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the ole’ “Pea Patch” on this Friday. This 3YO gelded son of Liam’s Map is trained by an ole’ friend who knows how to get them ready. Goes back to the dirt here and that should help this one immensely. Gets a rider who is making the first start of the meet here. Look out at a possible price. Prince of Pennies (5) ships in from out of town and may improve with a return to the dirt, as well. Drops in class for this one and the trainer will add the anti-bleeder Lasix for the first time. Adds up to what could be a tough out here. Rider is 0-for-15 to start the meet. Ugh. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 2-6 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 5-1-6/3/2-4…Tamara’s Way (5) gets my bullet here. This one drops from the $30,000 price tag down to about half that amount here. Broke the MCL here on June 18. If this speedster can duplicate that effort? Look out. Ship It (1) is likely to be the PT favorite. Goes for a HOF trainer, who puts his son in the saddle. Has just one win in 15 starts, but does add 2 runner-ups and 2 more thirds on the resume. Close. She’s a Secret (6) goes for a top barn operation. Broke the MCL two starts back and should fit nicely here. Rider has won with .21% of the last 29 for this trainer. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box the top numbers in the exactas. 

3rd: 7-4-5/3-8/2-6-1…Isle of Hope (7) is a top pedigree and goes for a top barn operation. Will add blinkers for the first time and the barn wins with .29% of the last 108 to add the shades. Sharp work on July 29. Look out here. Could blow the doors open with a better start. Barn’s go-to rider is up. I look no farther or further. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7 over/under the 4-5-3-8-2-6-1 in two smaller units. 

4th: 8-6-9/1/2-(13)-3-5/4-7-10/11…The first sod race of the day will be contested at the 1-mile distance and I will saddle up with Miranda Rights (8). This 3YO son of Constitution nearly won here on July 9. If not for some terrific issues in the lane, could have pulled the trigger on win #2 then. Gets the same rider back and has a big shot in this spot, IMO. I bet the 8 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 8-6-9 in the exactas. Double. I will key the top 3 numbers over (only) the 1 in a smaller unit.

5th: 4/5-12-(13)/9-10-11/3-6-7/2/1-8-(14)…The first Key Play of the Day comes here in the 2nd grass event. I go strong with Wonder Wave (4). This trainer is having a very good meet, and is under-appreciated for the work he does with this pupils. Nearly won the debut race here on July 16. A little tardy at the start in that one. Barn wins with a whopping .36% in the 2nd grass race. Wow number there. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win wager. Triple down, for me, too. I will key the 4 over/under the 5-12-13-9-10-11 in the exactas. More with the 5-12 than the rest. 

6th: 1-4/2-6-8-10/5-7-9-11//3…Problano (1) goes for great connections and this daughter of Curlin will get Lasix for the 2023 debut. Off since last November and that’s a bit of a vacation. But the barn can get them ready off the bench and this one has two really nice 2nds in only two previous races. Rider is having a very solid meet, too. My solid pick. Methodology (4) goes for a top trainer and a great ownership team. Needs to improve, but does have recent form edge on the top pick. Would not be a surprise here.  I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-4 in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 2-6-8-10-5-7 in two smaller units. 

7th: 1-6/7-9/2-8-11/3-4/5-10…Moreau (7) gets the edge in the 3rd grass event of the day. This is another at the 1-mile distance and this 3YO son of Speightstown has the pedigree to excel with the switch to the sod for the first time. Rider is having a slow meet, so far, but has the experience to get the job done. Look out here with a clean trip from the rail. C’Est Magnifique (6) was recently purchased for $200,000 by a great friend at the Fasig-Tipton Horses of Racing Age Sale. This one will make the new barn debut and the son of Kitten’s Joy may just pop at first request. The trainer wins with .25% of those making the barn debut. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 1-6 over/under the 7-9-2-8-11 in two smaller units. 

8th: 3-1/5-12/9-10-(13)/2-11-4/7-(14)…Lugan Knight (3) was given every chance in the world to earn his way into the Kentucky Derby picture this Spring. Looked well on the way with a win in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct in early January. But the speedster just wasn’t able to keep up as the races got longer. Should like this 6-furlong distance and the crowd here, too. Gets a clever rider up and looks well spotted by a top trainer. Gulfstream Way (1) is really good right now after being claimed for $40,000 just two starts ago. Barn wins with .23% of those that make the 2nd start off the purchase. New rider may fit this one. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 3-1 in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 1-5-12-9-10-13-2-11-4 in two smaller units. 

9th: 1-8/7/(11)/5/3-9/2/4-10…The finale is the 4th grass race of the day and another that will be situated at the 1-mile distance. I go with he railbird — Tepeu (1). This 4YO son of Tapit has raced three times on the grass so far. Has 1 second and two more thirds. Has been good of late, too, and the setting could not be more perfect. Look out for a power performance here. Ocean Pointe (8) won the last time out at Horseshoe Indianapolis and now has a win over the sod. Son of Kitten’s Joy should fit here, too, and the shorter distance from the race two ago could be the trigger. Chance. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-8 in the exactas. I will also key the 1 over/under the 7-11-5-3-9-2-4-10 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene