Final Version: McLean’s Selections for Ellis Park on Friday, July 15

Stats Now Updated & Current

Here’s our looks at the ole’ “Pea Patch” this Friday:

1st: 5-7/2-3/1-6/4…Red Alert (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the little “Pea Patch” in Henderson, KY on this Friday afternoon. The 7YO gelding comes in off a lack-luster performance against tougher at Churchill Downs last September. Been off ever since. But has been training for an extended time for this 2022 debut and this one nearly won the 2021 debut off a layoff, too. Won here on July 25 of last year at this same level. If ready, this one figures here. Messiah (7) has run twice this year and only twice since August of 2020. Ran OK last time out on the grass at Sam F. Houston. That was in March. Travels here and has been training for a top barn operation. Figures with the drop into the “bargain bin.” I bet the 7 — take note — to win/place/show here and then box the 5-7 in the exactas. I will key the 5-7 over/under the 2-3-1-6 in two smaller units.

2nd: 8-10-2/9-6-5/11-7/3/1-4…Tiz Light the Way (8) gets the nod here for a barn that runs a lot of races. Has won with .24% of the first 219 starts this year. This one is 2-2-2 in 11 grass starts and returns to the sod for the first time since March at the Fair Grounds. Is dramatically better on the green. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up and he has won with .22% of the last 37 mounts for this trainer. Could push the pace early. Markitoff (10) won the last time out when returning to the sod, too. That was at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Has 4-5-3 record in 31 grass starts now. Ride at “The Shoe” travels South today for this one. Fly Nightly (2) goes for a barn that has won with .21% of 78 starts this year and has a win in the first two outings here this meet. This one won at Hawthorne just two starts ago and is now 6-4-5 in 25 starts over the grass. Regular rider comes from Chicago to take this mount. Take note. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8-2 over/under the 10-9-6-5 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 2-4/1-5/3-6-7…Grace’s Secret (2) is the 7-5 ML favorite and figures to be the PT choice, as well. This 4YO daughter of Cairo Prince comes in off a distant 2nd in the last outing and moves up in the claiming game. New barn will add the blinkers and wins with .19% when donning the shades for the first time. New trainer wins with .27% of the last 52 to make the barn debut. Gets a new rider and a big positive here. Sweet Truffles (4) goes for a top barn operation and will get the blinkers for the first time, too. This barn wins with .10% of the last 48 to get the shades. Top rider, who has won with .23% of the last 43 for this barn, takes the reins back. Drop in class should help this one, for sure. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the top 2 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2-4 over/under the 1-5-3 in two smaller units.

4th: 6-10-9/8-11-3-4/2/7…Thirty Carats (6) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This 2YO daughter of Oscar Performance is bred for the sod and will make the career debut here on that surface. Trainer is better than anyone gives due credit and wins with .11% of those that run for the first time on the sod. Sharp work at Churhcill Downs on July 8. Look out here. Look. Out. And, at 10-1 in the ML? Wow. Flashy Gem (10) is another first time starter and a daughter of the hot, hot, hot freshman sire Bolt d’Oro. This one comes from the Brad Cox barn, and it has won with .25% of the first 460 starters this year. Is a perfect 1-for-1 here so far, too. Big shot and look early to see if the money shows up. What an Honor (9) is our third first timer to get some props. This one is well bred daughter of Honor Code and trained by Michael Maker, who is 0-0-0 in the first 3 starts here. Breeding suggests turf, with the dam already producing 3 sod winners. I bet the 6-10 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 6-10 over/under the 9-8-11-3-4-2 in two smaller units.

5th: 3-12-11/2-10-1/4-7/5-6-8…Pine Valley (3) gets the Lasix for the first time and this trainer wins with a paltry .04% when adding the anti-bleeder. This one has not started since last October, but did run well at KEE in the season finale. If he can return with that form? Look out. Could be a power play at a square price here, too. Air Combat (12) is a longshot possibility here, too. This one is 8-1 in the ML, and will get Lasix for the first time, as well. Has not run since last November, when trained by the embattled Bob Baffert. Training OK here for a young barn operator who can get the job done. Take note here. Lucky Devil (11) nearly won at Churhcill Downs just two starts ago and if he can duplicate that effort again? Look out. I bet the 3-12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-12 over/under the 11-2-10-1 in two smaller units.

6th: 3-10-(11)/6-1/2-7-4/9-(12)-8…Freedom’s Way (3) gets the nod for me here. This 3YO son of Declaration of War nearly won the last time out at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Came with a late flurry that left him just a neck short. In 6 turf tries so far, he has a 1-2-1 mark. Gets a new rider and that should help, too. My solid choice. Creative Miracle (10) goes for the Brad Cox barn and will face winners for the first time after winning the last time out by an easy 3 lengths. This one could be a good one. A real good one. I bet the 3-10 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-10 over (only) the 11-6-1 in a smaller unit.

7th: 2-7/6-3/1-9/8/4-5…Palm Cottage (2) is coming off an extended layoff, too, and will make the first start for a new barn, as well. This operation wins with .22% of those making the barn debut. Working well. Gets a really good gate rider who has won 1 of 2 for this trainer in the last two months. Barn is off to a great start here. Mollie Kate (7) could be a little surprise, if she can extend her speed a bit farther. She will get Lasix today for the first time and that could help immensely. New rider is top notch. I can’t dismiss. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 6-3-1-9-8 in two smaller units.

8th: 10/6-7/2-9-5/3/1-8/4-(11)…The day’s finale and I will go with my first “Key Play of the Day.” I’ll go with Hawk of War (10) in this spot and I’ll go rather bullish, at that. This one has won the last two and has hit the board in four in a row. Has a 4-2-1 record in 11 starts on the sod and the drop to this claiming price should help this one sustain his current momentum. Young rider can pony. I like. A lot. I bet the 10 across the board and then key the 10 over/under the 6-7-2-9-5-3 in the exactas. More with the 6-7 than the rest.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene