Total Day Results 11/ 6-2-8
2021 Overall 1,090 1090 / 398-388-498
Win % of Top Pick 36.51%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.27%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 718-1,090 65.87%
2021 Top Selection ITM / EP 44-64 68.75%
2021 Top Selections Win / EP 24-64 37.50%
“Key Horses” @ EP 6/ 2-2-2 33.33% Win / 100.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 158/ 73-36-12 46.20% Win / 76.58% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ EP 13/1-5-2 .077% Win / 61.54% ITM

We booted home 6 winners out of the 11 races carded at Indy Grand on Wednesday. Unfortunately for us, though, the one that really mattered didn’t get her cue from the rider until way too late and was 5th in her Stakes race and grass debut.

Good side?

She loved the grass and was beaten less than 2 for all of it.

She loved the grass and was beaten a neck, a nose, and a neck for 2nd place.

She loved the grass and was in front of them all 100 yards past the finish line.

She loved the grass and if she was running at the same 11/16-mile distance that she travelled in the last race, over the dirt, she would have been the winner. Yet, Wednesday’s race was contested at the flat mile.

So…

She’s happy. She’s healthy. Knock on serious wood.

And, we shall return.

Here’s a look at Friday’s card at Ellis Park:

1st: 4-3-2/5-1/(7)…The first event of the day — which we like to call the ole’ lid-lifter — is a 1-mile circuit over the grass course. If it stays on the soggy sod after all the rains this week, we will ante up  with Ames Mister (4). This 3YO son of Summer Front has raced 9 times over the sod so far, and has a 0-3-1 mark to show for the efforts. The last try does not give many positive vibes, but this time he will race for about half of the previous asking price. Bumped in that one and was eliminated from the fray early on. I can toss and forgive. The race at the Fair Grounds in March warrants respect in this grouping. My choice. Candy Curl (3) is the ML favorite, according to Brisnet.com, and this son of Twirling Candy sold at the 2020 OBS-Spring Sale for a handsome $200,000. Has made about $6,000 back. Need a bigger truck? But the last race at Lone Star was over the grass and offers hope. Chance. El Franco (2) moves back to the grass for the first time since last October at Indy Grand. Ran OK there and has a 2nd in three tries over the sod. Drops to the lowest price tag since 2nd at Belterra last year. Hmmm. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 4-3 over/under the rest of the numbers in two softer units.

2nd: 6-5/4-1/2-3…Sovereign Appeal (6) is a 4YO daughter of Ghostzapper and comes from a top notch female family. Has not raced this year, and this is a concern. Especially when you consider that the barn does not overwhelm you with “off the bench” numbers. Has won with only .07% of the last 115 to be away this long. But the works are good and the rider is top notch. The blinkers seemed to help last time out. Thanozapper (5) is another daughter of Ghostzapper and this one is a 3YO. Comes in off a tiring effort at Churchill Downs on debut on June 5. Should improve with that conditioning and should be the one to beat here. Barn wins with .22% in the first try at the route distance. Look out here. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.

3rd: 3-2/4/1-5/7-6…Rock Star Parking (3) gets my nod in this spot. Th 3YO Upstart filly has run two 3rds in a row against tougher and now drops to a career-low price tag. Barn wins with .21% off this kind of a layup and with .12% of those making the first start on the grass. Should like the shorter distance offered up here, and gets a top grass pilot up for the first time. Nod. Miss Is Zippy (2) has made two previous starts over the sod and has a third to show for those efforts. Drops into the claiming ranks for a barn that wins with .50% when cutting back from a route event to a sprint. Gets a hot rider here, who has 2 wins and a 2nd in four mounts. Threat. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over/under the 4 in two smaller units.

4th: 7-2-6/4-3/1/5…Gigging (7) snapped his string of four 3rd-place finishes in a row with a 4th. Overall, in 26 starts, this one has a 4-1-6 mark. Consistent type. But finishing the job is a little tough. Gets a top rider back up and will be closing late. Ekati’s Verve (2) comes from the barn of trainer Chris Hartman, who just finished up a top meet at Churchill Downs. Has a 2-1-2 mark in the first 6 starts here. Nice. This one was claimed last time out and the barn wins with .17% on the first try after the purchase. But? This one returns as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .24% of those kind. On second thought? I bet the 2 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-3 in two smaller units. I will also key the 2 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units.

5th: 8-7/2-4-6/5/3-1…This is a MCL event for the fillies and mares 3YOs & Up. To be contested at the 6-furlong sprint distance. I go with Legendary Gift (8), who drops from the $75,000 level to less than half that price tag here. Barn wins with a whopping .40% when dropping this much at once , and with .23% when going from a route distance to a sprint. Gets a rider who was 3rd on this one two starts ago. Should be coming late. Take note. On the Rise (7) ran well here on July 3 in a MSW event on debut. Working well and the barn wins with .08% when dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time. Could improve with the 2nd time out. Barn wins with .16% of those kind. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the 8-7 in the exactas. I will key the 8-7 over/under the 2-4-6-5 in two smaller units.

6th: 6-5/3/4-2/1-(1A)-7…This is a two-turn route over the grass, and I will saddle up with Hard Rye Guy (6). This 3YO son of Hard Spun is sure to improve off the last race a bit and could love this grass at the “Pea Patch.” Came with a late rush to get close at the wire in previous, and that was against tougher. Gets a red-hot rider up, and tied for the lead in the Jockey Standings. So far this meet? Rider is 6-4-3 in 20 mounts. Win % is .30. There Goes Harvard (5) won the last time out to break the maiden and now will face winners for the first time ever. But? This one has been on the verge of winning since the beginning and the addition of blinkers is essential to this one’s mind game. Barn wins with .17% when racing over the sod for the 2nd time and this one has faced some good ones in the past, too. One to beat. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-5 over/under the 3 in two smaller units.

7th: 4-2-7/3/5-6/1…Savvy (4) could give trainer Ian Wilkes a good day at the oval. This 5YO son of Flashback comes in off a better-than-looks effort last time out. That was the first start of 2021 and he surely needed the exercise. Barn wins with .13% in the 2nd try off a layup, and this one has a win in only previous run over this surface. Rider red hot. Adds up for me. Beaver Hat (2) has been running against much tougher and holding his own. Last work here on July 7 was spot on. Spot. On. Gets a rider who was up two starts ago and should benefit from the experience and expertise. Will be coming late. In two previous tries here? A win and a 2nd. Threat. Irish Unity (7) will race for the third time here and has never been headed at the wire. Both of the previous wins came at Lone Star Park in Texas. This will be deeper waters, to be sure. But the trainer is winning at a .21% clip here in the first 14 starts, and this one has the speed to be dangerous. I can’t leave out. I bet the 4-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3 in two smaller units.

8th: 5-8/6-2/1-7-9/3…Stepper (5) is a 2YO War Front filly trained by one of the best young conditioners in the game today. Ran huge on debut at Churchill Downs. Stretches out here, and that certainly should help some. Barn wins with .23% on the 2nd career start and with .19% on the stretch out. Working very well. Will be fit. Will be well-prepared. Will be a tough out. This guy can flat-out train a horse, now. Beware at a solid price point. Cailin Diana (8) came with a late rush in the career debut at Churchill Downs on June 17. Now, this 2YO More Than Ready filly stretches out for the first time. Added distance should help here, too. Barn wins with .13% on the 2nd start and the same percentage on the stretch out. Gets a top grass rider to take the reins here and should be coming late in the proceedings. Don’t dismiss. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 6-2-1-7-9 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene