(Gene and HOF rider Gary Stevens at an PDJF event in Louisville)
|Total Day Results||8 / 3-5-5|
|2021 Overall 1,019||1,019 / 368-361-453|
|Win % of Top Pick||36.11%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.67%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 667-1,019||65.46%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / EP 11-19||57.89%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / EP 7-16||43.75%|
|“Key Horses” @ EP 1 / 1-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 150/ 71-33-9||47;.33% Win / 75.33% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ EP 4/0-1-0||00.00% Win / 25.00% ITM|
We managed three winners, after all the races were moved from the turf to the main track and the scratches were calculated into the equation, out of the eight races carded and presented on Thursday. We also snagged seven Exacta scores out of the day, as well.
Our one “Longshot Special of the Day” ran 2nd, after leading all the wire until the shadow of the wire, too.
If you played our selections, we did snare the Pick 5 for a modest — but profitable — payout.
Nice day. Looking for more.
Here’s a look at our picks for Friday:
1st: 1-8/4/5…We will kick-start the day’s activities over the turf course and going the sprint distance of 5.5-furlongs. I saddle up with the rail contender — Future (1). This 4YO Honor Code gelding was purchased at the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale for $160,000. Has earned just short of $3,000 to date in two starts. But this one falls to near the bargain bin here and did run 4th in the career debut over the grass. Cut to the sprint distance could help and the barns does with with .20% of the last 5 to drop this significantly. Like the rider. Must get away from the gate, and he’s a top gate rider. Works OK for this level. My pick. Buckets of Rain (8) may be the most aptly-named horse in the group. Rain is in the forecast for later this week and this day, too. Here’s hoping that we can stay on the sod, with four races carded for the surface. This one is by Get Stormy and drops from the $40,000 level all the way to $10,000 today. Should help his attitude and level of interest. Trainer is having a very solid year and the dam has a turf winner, too. Shot. I bet the 1-8 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 1-8 over/under the 4-5 in two smaller units.
2nd: 2-6-5/1/3-4…Super Lucy (2) gets top-billing here. This 3YO daughter of Super Saver broke the MCL last time out and now will face winners for the first time. Lot to ask, especially when the barn operator only accomplishes that feat on .07% of the time this year. But this one might have experienced the “light bulb moment” last time out. Gets a top rider. Chance. Dixieland Dream (6) fits in this event. This 4YO Florida-bred filly ran a good one two times back and then had an eventful break in the last one. Lost all chance at the start of that one in the slop. Gets a rider who knows how to find the winner’s circle here. Won at Oaklawn Park back in the Winter to break the maiden. Should fit here. Minniemorepromises (5) has been running at Belterra up in Cincy for the past four starts. Does have a win; a second and a third in those encounters. Faces tougher here and that is likely to stiff-arm this one in the chase for the wire. Does get a top rider for the assignment. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units.
3rd: 6-7-1/3-2-4/5…Willie Has Hart (6) gets the nod in this event. The 2YO Texas Red colt ran a tidy 4th on debut at the $40,000 level at Churchill Downs on June 12. Drops here for a barn that wins with .18% in the MCL ranks. Gets a tough rider, who has won with .14% of his 482 mounts in 2021. Out of a Stakes-winning mare, who has 2 winners from 4 starters as 2YOs. Bueno Bueno (7) ran a better-than-looks 6th last time out in the debut race. Was 6th, but that was against a nice MSW bunch. Drops here and the barn wins with .12% when going to MCL for the first time. Ride is a perfect 2-for-2 in the last 14 days for this barn. Lt. Finn (1) flashed speed in the last race and may be able to carry it a bet farther with the drop in class here. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in numbers in the exactas. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 1-3-2-4-5 in two smaller units.
4th: 1-8/3-5-2-7/6…Tiz the Bomb (1) goes for a barn that wins with about twice as many on the second start as it does on the initial outing. Moves to the sod here, and the dam has one winner from three starters. No turf winners, yet. Sharp work on June 26. Top rider up. My pick. Hrothgar (8) is a first-timer from the barn of Brad Cox. Wins with .19% when they debut on the grass. This one is from a Stakes-placed dam, who has thrown 2 grass winners from the first 3 starters. Take note that this one has been working here, too. I bet the 1-8 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 1-8 over (only) the 3-5-2-7 in a shorter unit.
5th: 5-7-6/4-1/2-3…Best Time (5) gets the saddle from HOF trainer and the barn of Team Asmussen. Ran 3rd on debut at Indy Grand on June 9. Wide and late in the slop there. Son of Tapit and Stakes-winner Take Charge Brandi. What a breeding. Wow. Could improve here. Pelota (7) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 3YO gelded son of First Samurai will get the blinkers on for the first time, and the barn wins with .30% of those. Gets the Lasix for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .33% of those. Didn’t show much last Fall at KEE, but the work on June 20 at the Churchill Downs’ Training Center? Wow Time. Look out. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the top 3 over (only) the 4-1 in a smaller unit.
6th: 3-1/4-6/5-2-7/(1A)…Curly Ruth (3) will make her second start for the new trainer here and the barn wins with .20% of the last 25 to fit that description. Ran a very nice effort last time out. Any improvement at all? Watch out. Will be coming late and will need racing room, but gets a heady grass rider up. Has won with .20% for this barn over the last two months. Joy of Treasure (1) is a consistent sort. Over the last 4 outings, has hit the board three times with a fourth. But? Seems to have a tough time closing out the deal. Gets a new rider here, and that could help some. Barn wins with .15% of turf starts. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-1 in the exactas. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 4-6-5-2-7 in two smaller units.
7th: 1-5-7/2/3-6-4…Edge to Edge (1) will get my top billing here. This one has won two in a row for the red-hot barn of Chris Hartman. Go-to rider has won with .38% of the last 32 mounts for this barn, too. Can speed it. Can rate it. Can win it. My pick. On Your Mark (5) ran a huge one last time out against better. Nearly won when coming from last in the 6-furlong sprint. At this distance, has only one win in nine starts. But? Has four seconds and a third. Threat to hit board. Tkotchke (7) could upset the cart here, too. Toss the last one. Wide, wide, wide trip. New rider here and ran 2nd against better just two starts ago. Chance at some nice odds. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units.
8th: (16)-(15)/(17)/1-12/(13)-(14)/7-9/2-8/5-10…The final race of the day is scheduled to be a 11/16-mile event over the sod. Will be held at the MCL $30,000 level for the 3YOs & Up. I go to the AE List for my top two candidates — if they can get in to the starting gate. Shaldag (16) drops from the MSW level to the $30,000 price tag here. Ran two nice 3rds in a row before the last one. Flashed speed and spit the bit there. Unembellished (15) drops in class ratings, too. Hpped at the start of the 5.5-furlong sprint last time and lost all chance. Barn wins with .25% on the 2nd grass try. Biggest obstacle for these two? Getting in the race. If they do, I play. If they don’t? I go to Awesummer (1), who is my final “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one is listed at 6-1 in the ML for Brisnet.com, and I love those odds. At this level, this one ran two thirds in a row at Churchill Downs. Has speed. Can flash it. Gets a top grass rider up. I bet the 1 if the other two don’t get in. I box the 1-12 in the exactas. And, I key the 1-12 over/under the 7-9-2-8 in two smaller. If the AE List horses draw in? I use the 16-15 with the 1-12.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene