|Total Day Results||10 / 3-5-4|
|2021 Overall 1,124||1124/ 415-406-515|
|Win % of Top Pick||36.92%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.62%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 744-1,124||66.19%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / EP 63-88||71.59%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / EP 38-88||43.18%|
|“Key Horses” @ EP 8/ 4-2-2||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 162/ 76-36-13||46.91% Win / 77.16% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ EP 13/1-5-2||.077% Win / 61.54% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (7-21-21) 3/1-0-0||33.33% Win / 33.33% ITM|
We journeyed up to Indy Grand on Wednesday — virtually, speaking — to take in a few Stakes races and another great race program. I know I harp on it a lot, but the place is amazing, and the staff does a terrific job.
If you have not tried out Shelbyville, IN. yet? Do yourself a favor. Go. It’s as much fun as a grown-up can stand.
We managed three winners on the 10-race card. Our two “Key Plays of the Day” did good. One won. Another ran third.
Most fun came in the exactas. Had six to cash in. They rendered a tidy $56.80, $6.20, $41.80, $20.70, $3.10, and $18.00 for every $1 played correctly. Nice.
Here’s hoping that you had a few of those.
Here’s our looks for Ellis Park on Friday:
1st: 3/6-2/1-5/4…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in the ole’ lid-lifter with Lele (3). This 4YO daughter of Daredevil is trained by Dale Romans, who has yet to dent the winner’s column at this year’s Ellis Park meet. But the gentle giant is known for touring some good ones at the ole’ Pea Patch and the inaugural win could come right here. The barn wins with .28% of the last 18 to drop down this much in class in one swoop. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the trainer wins with .29% of those. Gets a rider who has gone 2-2-2 in the last week and in the last 8 rides. Bodes well. I bet the 3 across the board and then key the 3 over/under the numbers listed above. More with the 6-2. Little less with the 1-5. Lesser with the 4.
2nd: 5-3/6-4/1-2…The first grass race of the day comes in this 11/16-mile contest and I will team up with Kurilov (5). This 8YO horse has raced over the sod 13 times so far, and has a 2-4-1 mark. Nice. But at this distance? This one has not hit the board in 3 starts. Top rider takes the reins and this one should benefit from the last race at Churchill Downs on June 11. Ransack (3) defeated our top pick just two starts ago at Churchill Downs. But this one was 21-1 odds that day. Ran for just $8,000 claiming four starts ago. Has a 6-4-6 mark in 33 grass starts. At this distance? Has 3-1-2 mark in 10 starts. Hmmm. Interesting. I bet the 5-3 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 5-3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
3rd: 8-4-6/2-5/3-1-7…Simply Beguiled (8) gets the push here, for me. This 4YO filly will make the first start for the new barn operation, which wins with .10% of those making the debut for the new connections. Drops in class for this one, and the effort three starts ago at KEE is good enough to put this one on top here. Look for more with the new rider. Speed Zone (4) goes for a top barn operation, which has started this meet a bit on the chilly side. Drops into the MCL ranks for the first time since being claimed for $50,000 back in late May. Now, this one is offered up for $16,000. Need a bigger truck? Have to think this one will appreciate this class relief, right? Connections too good to pass on, IMO. Spy a Star (6) drops into the MCL ranks here, too. Barn wins with .06% of those kind. Has never been a real threat at the wire, but the late kick does put this one in some pictures. Just not the winner’s circle ones. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2-5 in two smaller units. I will key the 8-4 over/under the 6-2-5-3-1-7 in two smaller units, as well.
4th: 3-6-5/1-7-4/2…This turf event will be contested at the flat 1-mile distance, and I will saddle up with Hat Tip (3). This 5YO mare has run two thirds in a row and has hit the board in 11 of 19 career starts. At this distance? Has hit the board in 6 of 7 and has 2 wins. The rider is one of the best grass riders in these parts. Will be running late. Look for the final kick. Runaway Mom (6) broke the maiden when moved to the sod two starts ago. Ran well in the first try against winners last time out at Churchill Downs. Coming with a late kick. Just ran out of ground. Look for another big effort here. Bourbina (5) was edged by a nose last time out and now moves to the grass for the first time. Could move up. But the dam has never had a grass winner and the pedigree doesn’t scream it. Chance. Maybe? I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-6 over/under the 5-1-7-4-2 in two smaller units.
5th: 7-2/8/4-5-6/1-3…This is a really nice MSW event that will be lined up for the sprinters at 6 furlongs. I give the edge to Jennings (7). This 4YO gelding has raced once and came with a late rush to be second. And, that was for a trainer who normally does NOT crank them up for the initial effort. Barn wins with .10% on the second try. Gets the meet’s leading rider up here. Look out. Gentle Soul (2) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 4Yo gelding goes for the first time for a trainer who wins with .13% on debut. This one comes from a dam who has produced 2 winners from 2 starters and a Stakes-winner. Works are solid. Rider has won with .18% of the last 11 mounts fort this outfit. Chance. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 7-2 over/under the 8 in two smaller units.
6th: 6-1A/2-4-7-1/5-3…The third of the turf events will be slated here at the sprint distance of 5.5-furlongs. I go with Agog (6). This 3YO daughter of More Than Ready is bred for the sod, tooth and nail, and in the first 9 tries over the sod, this one has a 1-3-2 mark. Ran over the slop last time out. Was 2nd after leading nearly the entire trip. Rider is one of the best on the grass in these parts. Barn has been chilly to start the meet and has won with only .04% when shifting surfaces. Hmmm. Breonna (1A) ran a much better-than-looks 4th last time out. Was 2nd and 1st the two times before. Has a win in 3 tries over the sod. Gets a top rider, who is heating up here. Look out for this entry. I bet the 6-1A across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-1A over/under the 2-4-7 in two smaller units.
7th: 1/2-3/7-5/4-6-8…The last “Key Play of the Day” comes here with the rail horse Seize the Treasure (1). This 2YO son of Carpe Diem nearly won in the debut over the sod at Churchill Downs. Came right back the 2nd time out and capture the same race conditions. Will move to the dirt here, but the barn wins with .20% of the last 557 to do that surface switch. Gets a top rider for the effort and the work on July 14 was good enough to set this one up perfectly for the next win. Look out. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the 2-3-7-5-4-6-8 in the exactas. More with the 2-3. Little less with the 7-5. Lesser with the rest.
8th: 9-5-6/11-10/2-1-7-12-4/3-8…The final event of the day is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the grass, and I will give the edge to Creative Miracle (9) in a tightly-matched group. This is a first timer for the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning with an astounding .53% of his 17 runners this meet. The tally sheet shows a 9-2-2 mark. Rider has won 4 of the last 5 here. Sharp, sharp, sharp work at KEE on July 13. Look out. Seriously. Look out. Scattershack (5) is my final “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one is a healthy 12-1 in the ML, and I think could easily outrun the odds, if not the other horses in this field. Works are spot on and the trainer is due. Past due. Look out here, too. Drifter (6) has run three times already down South. Had a nice 2nd last time out in Cajun Country. Gets a top rider for the saddle. Interesting one, here. I bet the 9-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 9-5 over/under the 6-11-10-2-1-7 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene