|Total Day Results||9 / 7-0-7|
|2021 Overall 1,182||1182/ 438-418-544|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.06%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.48%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 789-1,182||66.75%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / EP 99-136||72.79%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / EP 54-136||39.71%|
|“Key Horses” @ EP 19/ 5-6-4||26.32% Win / 78.95% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 174/ 77-41-15||44.25% Win / 76.44% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ EP 23/2-5-3||.087% Win / 43.48% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (8–4-21) 6/2-0-0||33.33% Win / 33.33% ITM|
We are coming off a day where we won 7 of 9 races at Indy Grand on Wednesday, and had 8 exactas on the card, too.
But we are always looking for more and we kick-start a great week of racing at Ellis Park on Friday, with a load of Stakes events on both Saturday and Sunday that will preview the upcoming Stakes that will soon be held at Kentucky Downs in Franklin, KY in September.
Here’s a look at our picks for Friday:
1st: 7-1-6/5-3-4/2…Pretty Boy Elm (7) drops from the $16,000 level to the $10,000 fee for this one and should benefit from that class relief. Ran very well last time, too, finishing a tiring 3rd at the 5.5-furlong distance. Barn is chilly and bordering on iceberg status with a 0-for-16 start to the meet, but this one does figure in this spot. New rider needs to moderate the speed on top and reserve some for the tank drive. If he can do that? Watch out. Sir Acealot (1) is our first “Longshot Special of the Day.” I know we have not won with many of these for the meet, but we have hit the board with a respectable number, and this 3YO son of Morning Line normally has speed to burn early, too. Cut back in distance helps and the move to the grass could help, too. The dam of this one does not have a turf winner, but this one did win at the $16,000 level two starts ago. New rider could move this one early. Take note. Archie Can’t Sell (6) ran 2nd last time out at Belterra, and now will step up to the major leagues. Will need to bring his “A” game, but has speed and that can be dangerous. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 7-1 over/under the 6-5-3-4-2 in two smaller units.
2nd: 1-2/5/6-3-4…Loopallu (1) gets the nod in this 6-furlong sprint. This one has raced here twice before with a win and a third. In 13 tries at this distance? Has 3 wins and 5 seconds. Was claimed last time out, when he tired late in the proceedings. Still held on for 3rd. Won at Churchill Downs just two starts ago. Both of those were moved off the sod to the main track. Will have to stretch out here, and hold his speed. Can he? Tumbling Sky (2) was claimed for $5,000 last time out, but that was an easy win. In 5 starts at this distance, has two wins and second. Gets a new rider for this one and that is very interesting that the winning jockey takes the mount on the top pick here. Hmmm. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-2 in the exactas. I will key the 1-2 over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
3rd: 3-5-2/7/1-8…Cash Refund (3) gets the edge here despite the fact that she has never hit the board in four lifetime starts. Drops to a career-low price tag and picks up a rider who is at the top of his game, again. Comes from deep and off the pace, so will need some speed to run into. Barn is winning at a .31% clip here this meet with a 4-3-1 mark after 13 starts. Anna’s Moonlight (5) drops form the $30,000 level to this benchmark here and will try a route and grass for the first time, each. Barn winning at a .20% rate this meet and this one did run well in the career debut at Churchill Downs back in May. Chance. Liberty Belle (2) ran a nice one last time out at Indy Grand. Moves to the grass for the first time and the trainer wins with only .06% of those kind. Gets a rider who has experience here and the dam has a winner form two starters so far. Zero on the grass, though. Hmmm. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box the top three numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-5 over/undert the 2-7-1-8 in two smaller units.
4th: 5-6-2/4-3/1A-1…Parking Ticket (5) has run two good ones in a row and fits this group very nicely. Has improved with experience this year and looks to be primed right now. Rider is having a very solid meet and the trainer wins with .23% in the sprint category. One to beat, IMO. Her Giant (6) drops in class for this one and may improve with a return to the sprint distance. Won at Churchill Downs just three starts ago and has a 2-1-2-mark in 9 starts at this distance. Good record here, too. Rider is heating up. Our Musical Moment (2) is the ML favorite, according to Brisnet.com, and comes in off a win at Indy Grand. Over the last 7 starts, this one has 3 wins; 3 seconds and a third. Consistent sort picks up a rider who won on her last time out, but is 0-0-1 in 8 tries here. Hmmm. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 2-4-3-1 in two smaller units.
5th: 6-1-2/5/4-9/3-7-8…Big Boss Ben (6) has run two nice ones to begin the career and nearly won the last time out when sprinting over the sod for the first time. New rider has tuned his game up here, of late, and the trainer wins with .18% in the sprint distances. In the 2nd grass race of the career? Barn wins with .30%. C J All the Way (1) is a first time starter for the barn of Mark Casse, who is winning at a .25% rate this meet. Works are super sharp and the dam was Stakes-placed in the career. Rider is winning at a .31% rate this meet after 35 starts. Look out. Faithful Ruler (2) is my “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 2YO son of American Pharoah cost $230,000 at a 2YO sale earlier this year. Training lights out. Lights. Out. Barn wins with .05% when debuting on the sod. HMMM. I bet the 6-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
6th: 3-1-2/4/5…Shanghai’s Dream (3) goes for the barn of Steve Asmussen and could be in line to give the boss a career milestone win. Possibly. This one won at Churchill Downs just two starts ago and should fit with these types here. Interesting choice of riders for this barn, though. And, at this distance? Only 1 win in 12 starts. Not encouraging. Hold Tight (1) is certainly capable of upsetting this group here. This 3YO son of Candy Ride was claimed last time out for $20,000 and now ups the game to the $30,000 level. Has a win three starts ago as the favorite and lost last time out as the beaten favorite. Barn wins with .17% of those returning as a beaten fan’s choice, and with .11% on the first try after the claim. Chance with a red-hot rider in control. Somes Sound (2) won easily last time out and in the first start of 2021. Has been off since that win, though, and that was mid-June. Trainer has a bright future and off to a fast start. Works are good. Chance. I bet the 1 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top three numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-1-2 over/under the 4-5 in two smaller units.
7th: 8-3-9/2-6-4/1-5-7…This is a turf event that will be contested at the flat, 1-mile distance and I will ante up with Mrs Claus (8). This one won the debut at Indy Grand by a whopping 4 lengths and now returns for the first start of 2021. Works are good and the barn can win off the bench — capturing .18% of those away from the gate this long. Gets a very nice turf rider up for the voyage. Look out here. Could be a solid price, too. Osaka Girl (3) may be the horse to beat, but the barn is 0-1-1 in 7 starts here this meet. This one ran very well last time out against better, but tired mightily at the end of that 1-mile try. Has speed and that is dangerous over this course. Threat. Rider is 2-3-2 in the last 8 mounts. Nice. Sweet Carolena (9) won the last time out here over a sloppy track and that broke the maiden. Moves up to face winners for the first time, and the barn wins with .20% of those kind. Gets the grass for the first time, and barn wins with .15% of those. Has a chance here with the speed. I bet the 8-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 8-3 over/under the 9-2-6-4-1 in two smaller units.
8th: 3-2/9/8-1/4-5-10-7/6…The final race of the day is another 1-mile contest over the sod and I will give the edge to Extreme (3). This 4YO son of Speightstown has run three very nice 2nds in a row and looks very salty in this group. Gets a new rider and the barn is headed by one of the best in this business. Anywhere. Any time. Guy knows how to train horses and knows how to win races. This is my “Key Play of the Day.” Love this one. I will do this: I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-2 in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over/under the 9 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene