Days Results 9 / 4-6-2
2023 Overall — 1,031 1031 / 344-354-463
Win % of Top Pick 33.37%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 37.54%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 640-1,031 62.08%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 65-105 61.90%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 31-105 29.52%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 68-100 68.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 37-100 37.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 63.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 32.09%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 50.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 33.33%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 50% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 18/10-1-3 55.56% Win / 77.78% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 14/2-5-1 14.29% Win / 57.14% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 154/64-32-17 41.56% Win / 72.90% ITM

(Stats to be updated after Ellis Park’s card on 6-30-23)

Here’s our looks at the true, blue (might as well add red and white for this week’s festivities, right?) Ellis Park kick-start to the annual Summer Meet:

1st: 8-7/9-2-5/1/3-6/4…River in Egypt (8) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter to the annual Summer park festivities at the ole’ “Pea Patch” along the Ohio River. This 3YO gelded son of Cairo Prince comes in off a win last time out at the $20,000 level. Will move up to face winners for the first time, and the barn wins with .18% of the last 34 to do that. But? Also drops to a $10,000 price point here. Should be able to compete at this level with the apprentice rider up. Rounder (7) may be the horse to brat. This one has only one win in 24 lifetime starts. That’s the reason I use this one 2nd. But does haver 7 runner-ups and 5 more thirds. May have found a group he can pass late, but the record screams “underneath.” I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-7 in the exactas. I will key the 7 under the “all button” in a smaller unit. 

2nd: 5-1-4/3-7/2//6…Dr. Perry (5) is a horse I have touted before and this 4YO gelded son of Into Mischief does return to the same claiming level as he faced last time out here on June 17. Ran OK to be 3rd that day but was compromised at the beginning. A cleaner start? May be the cure. Badgeball (1) may add some value to the ticket. This 4YO gelding comes in of a near-miss 2nd against $30,000 level claimers last time at Churchill Downs. Despite the higher price tag here, this one may have faced tougher last time out. Gets a huge rider switch. Real threat. Lupo’s Legacy (4) broke the MCL for $50,000 two starts ago and really lost all chance at the start of the last one here on June 10. Should be in the mix with a clean break. I bet the 5-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-7 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 6-7/8-4/2-5/3/1/9…Deboisblanc (6) is a 2YO daughter of Munnings and is trained by the best in the game these days, who is winning at a .28% clip here after the first 25 starts. This one returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .30% of the last 363 to do that. Should be a tough out in the 2nd career start — especially coming off the bullet work here on July 1. Wow time. I bet the 6 across the board; double down on the win wager; and then box the 6-7 in the exactas. I will key the 6 over/under the 7-8-4-2-5-3-1 in the exactas. More with the 7-8-4 than the rest. 

4th: 2-6/7/1-5//3-4…Violent Point (2) looms large in this event for owner/trainer combo. Was claimed last time out and this HOFer wins with .19% of the last 332 to make the first start for the new connections after a claim purchase. Hot rider — who is winning at .23% rate after 40 mounts — is back up after the win ride last time. One to catch, and they can’t do that much on this speed favoring strip. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-6 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 7-1-5 in two smaller units. 

5th: 3-7/4-8/2-1/5-9-10/6…Bling (7) gets in the nod in the first grass race of the day. This one will be contested at the 1-mile distance and this 3YO fillet has a third in only previous try at the distance. Does have a 1-1-1 mark in 4 turf runs so far. Has run in three Stakes in a row — 2 of them Graded. None of those types in here. Should dominate if ready. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 3-7 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 3-7 over/under the 4-8-2-1 in two smaller units. 

6th: 9-2/3-8/1//6/4-5-7-10…Here U Come Again (1) is a first time filly for the Brad Cox barn, and it wins with .20% of the last 474 to make the debut in the MSW ranks. Training very well for this first start and the barn’s go-to rider is up. Has teamed with the trainer to go 3-3-1 in the last 9. Lots to like here. Lots. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the 9-2 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 9-2 over/under the 3-8-1 in two smaller units. 

7th: 6-5/8-9-12/3-(14)/4-11-7/1…This grass affair will be contested at the 1-mile distance, as well. I go with Endpoint (6) as my first Upset Special. This one is rated at 6-1 odds in the ML by my good friends over at Brisnet.com. Has run 5 times so far with a 2nd and a 3rd. But will make the grass debut here. Barn wins with only .07 of the last 41 to go dirt to turf, but this one gets Lasix, too, and the dam has thrown a turf winner. May enjoy. Decanted (5) ran a nice one at KEE back in April. If he can duplicate that form? Look out. Hot rider takes the reins. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-5 in the excatas. I will key the 6-5 over/under the 8-9-12-3-14 in two smaller units. 

8th: 1-4-3/6-9-7/5-8/2…Specializin (1) gets the rail and has the speed to run this field off their feet in here. Especially on a speed favoring track. Will get a little shallow at the end, and we may be hoping to hold on for dear life, but at 8-1 odds, I like an Upset Alert here. Worth a shot with a speed rider on for the journey. Check Engine Light (4) can motor early on, as well, and moves up to face winners for the first time. If she runs back to the win last time out? Look out. Padma (3) is the most accomplished and is already Stakes-placed. But she is a closer. May be a deep closer. And, her style compromises her here. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-9 in two smaller units. 

9th: 11-7-2/8-(14)-(15)-(16)-9/4-6/3-5-10-12-(13)…The day’s finale is a grass event that will be run at the 1-mile distance, too. I go to the outside and saddle up with Hezmorethanready (11), who has the breeding edge on many of these. Drops to a career-low price tag and may be a tough out if he can find a good spot to land early on. Try to avoid the inside this time, Jose (Lopez, the rider). Please. Booster Shot (7) will try the grass course for the 2nd time. Ran OK over it for more money two starts ago. Claimed last time out. Chance here for a top claiming operation, which wins with .24% of the last 169 on the first try after a purchase. Cosmic Storm (2) goes with Lasix for the first time and this barn wins with .15% of the last 124 to get the anti-bleeder. Drops considerably for this effort and may improve with the longer distance. Sire is a grass influence. Chance. I bet the 11-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 11-2 over/under the 7-8-14-15-16-9-4-6 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene