|Days Results||9 / 2-4-6|
|2023 Overall — 1,014||1,014 / 337-344-459|
|Win % of Top Pick||33.23%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.48%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 628-1,014||61.93%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 58-96||60.42%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 27-96||28.13%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 63-92||68.48%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 34-92||36.96%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215||63.72%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215||32.09%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12||50.00%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12||33.33%|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1||50% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3||33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4||46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1||20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 16/10-0-2||62.50% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 14/2-5-1||14.29% Win / 57.14% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 152/64-31-16||42.11% Win / 73.03% ITM|
(Stats to be updated after Horseshoe Indianapolis and Ellis Park on Thursday)
Here’s our looks for Ellis Park on this Friday kick-start to one of the greatest racing weekends in the history of the “Pea Patch:”
1st: 6-7/8/1-2//3-5…Tap Valley (6) is our top pick in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “Pea Patch” on this Friday. The 2YO son of Tapwrit will be making the career debut here, and the dam of this one has 2 winners from 2 starters. Trainer wins with .20% of the last 5 to make their debut in the MCL ranks. Barn wins with .35% in the MCL ranks, altogether. Rider has won with .20% of the last 30 mounts for the trainer, who also is the rider’s wife. Looks to have some speed and comes in off a very nice work. Express Cruiser (7) has run before and was 3rd at the same level last time out. Barn wins with .16% of the last 96 to run as a 2YO. Rider is just 1-for-22 this meet. Ugh. I bet the 6 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 6-7 in the exactas. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 8-1-2 in two smaller units.
2nd: 5-6-1/4-3/2…You’re So Sillea (5) has run 2nd in the last 3 outs; 4 of the last 5 races; and has been runner-up 5 times in the first 11 races. Wow. Doesn’t seem to want to win at the wire, does it? But this one does have 2 wins, too. Trainer is solid and has won with .21% of 19 starts this year. Works are spot on. Spot. On. Mixed signals, but have to use for me. Portilla (6) had a string of four straight races in the money snapped last time out when 4th at Churchill Downs on May 13. Ran behind our top pick in the last outing, too. Gets a top rider back up and should be better here, returning as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .31% of the last 45 to do that. Can’t dismiss. Just can’t. Non Violence (1) goes for one of the best, most under-rated trainers in the game. Always seems to have his horses well-placed and looking good. This one is no exception. Won easily last time out. Loses that condition and moves up, but has a big shot here in the third start off the layoff. Wins with .22% of the last 175 to do that. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-3 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-4/3-6/5-2-1…Mailman Money (7) used to make the Stakes circuit in these here parts for a long time. Now, he shows up for a $50,000 price tag. Barn wins with .23% of the last 99 to drop into the claiming ranks for the first time and this one did run a really good winning race just three starts ago. Think he will be tagged here, and think he can / will win here, too. Not a bad combo for this 6YO gelding and his current connections. I like this one. A lot. I bet the 7 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 7-4 in the exactas. I will key the 7-4 over/under the 3-6 in two smaller units.
4th: 8-(10)-1/5-4//2-6/3-7…The first grass race of the day will be contested at 11/16-miles and I will saddle up with Clever Joke (8). This 3YO filly has never missed the board and just ran a huge one on May 12 at Churchill Downs. Just missed in that one. Barn wins with .14% of the last 129 to come off a vacation and gets a solid grass rider in the irons here, too. Big shot in the lane, if in high gear. Opening Night (10) is a big contender if this one moves from the sod to the main track. If it stays grass, though, one may consider Bolivie (1). Hard not to like this one, especially since the trainer is winning at a .25% clip this meet after the first 16 starts. Should improve off the last one. If so? Look out. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-1 over/under the 5-4 in two smaller units.
5th: 2-8/1-5-10-12/3-6-7-11/4/9…Too Fast for You (2) ran well in the inaugural run and just tired late. That winner came right back to win the next outing, too. If this 2YO daughter of Twirling Candy improves at all, then she will be salty here. Returns as a beaten favorite too, and the barn wins with .23% of the last 47 of those, too. Like. Unmatched (8) ran well in the last outing, improving a lot of the first start. If she improves again? Look out. By a top stallion. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-8 in the exactas. I will key the 2-8 over/under the 1-5-10-12 in two smaller units.
6th: 8-1-2/3-7/4/5/6…Hammerdonhappiness (8) comes in off a poor outing, but that was against much, much, much tougher company. Now, this one gets back to the level where she can really compete. Nearly won at $30,000 level. This is cheaper than that one. Gets the trainer’s husband up in the saddle. He has gone 1-2-1 in 5 rides this meet. Nice. Abbreviation (1) gets blinkers on and this barn has gone 0-for-1 with that change. Drops in class here, though, and that should help immensely. Back to the fast dirt here, too, and that is a major change. Salsalita Verde (2) ran well at this level two starts ago. Move back to dirt should help this one, as well. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-7 in two smaller units.
7th: 2/3-1/4-5//6…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Tapit’s Conquest (2). Loved this one earlier in the year when on the KY Derby Trail. Just couldn’t put it all together in either the G2 Risen Star or the G2 Louisiana Derby. Ran up against Angel of Empire three starts ago and ran up against a Lion in the Stakes at Pimlico in the last outing, too. None of those types in here. Should dominate. I bet the 2 to win/place and double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the 2 over (only) the 3-1-4-5. More with the 3 than the rest.
8th: 1-4-10/11-7-9/8/6-12/2-5/3…This is a 11/16-mile turf event and I will go with the railbird McLovin (1). This one won the last time out — but that was in early September of 2022. In 8 grass races, though, this one has a record of 3-1-1 in those matches. Barn has won with .26% of 57 starters this year. Love the rider chosen. Huge improvement. Cellist (4) has run in 5 straight Stakes and three of those were Graded. Ran a nice second on the AW surface last time out and the winner of that one is a G1 winner. Lots to like here. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the 1-4-10 in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 10-11-7-9 in two smaller units.
9th: 6-1/7-2-3/5/4…Best Actor (6) has not been out since September of 2022. Well beaten in that one. But this barn wins with .24% of the last 345 to make the first start off the layoff. This one has run well and is a Graded Stakes winner, too. Should do well in the allowance company and gets a huge rider to take the mount. Has won with .23% of the last 53 here, too. Kupuna (1) has run two very nice 2nds in a row and gets a huge rider switch for this one, too. Will be a tough out and has some speed to use early and often. Speed has worked here all meet, so far. I bet the 6 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 6-1 sternly. I will key the 6-1 over (only) the 7-2-3 in two smaller units.
10th: 10-(13)/3-5-11-7/8-1/6-12-(14)/2-9…The last race of the day is a 11/4-mile marathon over the sod. I will ante up with Soybean Man (10). What an appropriate name for a horse to run here. Where soybeans are raised in the infield. Where the track is known as the ole’ “Pea Patch.” This one nearly broke the MSW last time out when running over the sod for the first time. Should improve off that one here. Distance should not be the issue for a KY Derby winning sire. My Boy Tony (13) could be a tough out. But must get lucky before the race and draw in from the AE List. I bet the 10 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 10 over/under the 13-3-5-11-7-8-1 in the exactas. More with the 13, if he gets in, than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene