Days Results | 9 / 4-3-6 |
2023 Overall — 1,290 | 1290 / 442-448-602 |
Win % of Top Pick | 34.26% |
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall | 38.55% |
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 816-1,290 | 63.26% |
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 4-7 | 57.14% |
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 1-7 | 14.29% |
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 125-186 | 67.20% |
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 68-186 | 36.56% |
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135 | 64.44% |
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135 | 33.33% |
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 94-136 | 69.12% |
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 51-136 | 37.50% |
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 | 63.72% |
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 | 32.09% |
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 | 50.00% |
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 | 33.33% |
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 | 50% Win / 75.00% ITM |
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 | 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM |
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 | 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM |
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 | 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM |
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 | 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM |
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 | 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM |
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 | 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM |
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 24/13-2-3 | 54.17% Win / 75.00% ITM |
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 | 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM |
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 43/16-9-3 | 37.21% Win / 65.12% ITM |
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 189/81-37-19 | 42.86% Win / 72.49% ITM |
(Stats to be updated after Horseshoe Indianapolis’ and Ellis Park cards this week)
Here’s our looks for the Monday edition of the Ellis Park meet — which was originally scheduled to be held on this Friday. This card was moved to avoid the extreme heat conditions that are currently plaguing much of West Kentucky.
1st: 2/3-4-1-5/8-7/6…The first Key Play of the Day comes in the very first race on this Monday matinee program at the ole’ “Pea Patch,” and in what we like to call the ole’ lid-lifter. We will saddle up with Rate Confirmation (2). This 3YO gelded son of Connect comes in off a grass try. That was a failed experiment and now he is back on the main track. Barn wins with .17% of the last 66 to make this surface switch. Just two starts ago, this one ran a very nice 2nd at this same level over the dirt and has a 0-2-2- mark in 9 dirt tries, to date. May graduate with a little luck here. I bet the 2 across the board and then key the 2 over/under the 3-4-1-5-8-7 in the exactas. More with the 3-4-1-5 than the rest.
2nd: 2-6/3-7/4-5/8/1…More Than Glory (2) could give the “2s” the natural daily double. This 3YO More Than Ready filly should convert back to the sod very well here. Ran over the sod twice before, with a runner-up on the resume. Trains wins with .14% when making this surface switch, but wins with .35% of the last 37 to go from MSW company to the MCL ranks. Enough for me. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-6 in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 6-3-7-4-5-8 in two smaller units.
3rd: 3-6-4/5-8/2-7/1…Hashtag Winner (3) is the 2-1 ML favorite here and looks the part. Has hit the board in each of the last 3 outs and has two wins in that span. Ran well over a “good” track here last time out, but likes it hot and fast. Will get that surface here. Charge Account (6) will try to convert back to their main track here. Barn has won with .16% of the last 49 to make this surface change. Gets a hot rider up and that could help, too. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 6-4-5-8-2-7 in two smaller units.
4th: 8-2/6-7/5/1/3//4…Excellent Question (8) returns here as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .19% of the last 103 to do that. Ran super here two races ago before catching a sloppy track for the first time in the last effort. Should do better on a fast cushion. I bet the 8 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 8-2 in the exactas. I will key the 8 over/under the 2-6-7-5-1-3 in two smaller units.
5th: 2-5-6/4-11/3-9/1-7/8-10…The second grass race of the day and this one will be contested at the distance of 5.5 furlongs. Wonder Wave (2) gets the slight nod here in a well-balanced group. This 2YO daughter of U S Navy Flag ran huge on debut here on July 16. Came running at the end of that one and the experience should assist the cause here. Barn wins with .33% of the last 12 to make the 2nd grass race. Standoutsensation (5) goes for a top trainer, who is having a bit of a rough meet. Has just 1 win in 28 starts. Ugh. Candi Girl (6) goes for the barn of Brad Cox and that’s enough to catch your attention. Barn winning at a .31% rate this meet and this one has talent. Returns as a beaten favorite. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 in the exactas. And, I will key the 2 over/under the 5-6-4-11-3-9 in two smaller units.
6th: 7-2-1/4/6-8/9-11-12/5/3/10…Benvolio (7) is a first time starter for Cox’s Kentucky operation, and this 2YO son of Tapit has all the ingredients to be a top runner. Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters. Rider is hot for this barn, too, winning with half of the last 16. Sharp work on Aug. 18. Ok. Enough for me. I bet the 7 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7 over/under the 2-1-4-6-8 in two smaller units.
7th: 9-7/2/4//3-6-8/5/1…The third of four grass races on the day and this one will be contested at the 11/8-mile distance. I go with Kitten Mischief (9), who ran in the G3 Cougar II Stakes at Del Mar last time out. Held his own. Was a competitive 4th in that one. Gets a top rider here for the return trip and should appreciate the class relief here, as well. Look out. F Five (7) could help trainer Brian Lynch have a big day. This one won last time out at Churchill Downs when going much longer. Has the speed to be dangerous and the stamina is certainly there, too. Threat. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the 9-7 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 9-7 over/under the 2-4 in two smaller units.
8th 2/5-3/7/6/9/1/4-8…The next Key Play of the Day comes here in a very competitive Optional Claimer and with Insignia (2). This 4YO Curlin filly goes for the Cox barn and won here by over 9 lengths last time out on July 14. Has speed. But versatile. Rider is hot. Barn is hot. Weather is really hot. Might as well go with the flow. I bet the 2 across the board and then double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the 2 over/under the 5-3-7-6-9 in the exactas. More with the 5-3 than the rest.
9th: 9/1-5/10-11-12-2/6-(13)-(14)-(15)-8//3-7…The day’s finale is a final turf event and I will saddle up with the final Key Play of the Day — Okay Fine (9). This 3YO filly is still looking for win #1 after 7 starts, but this one has been close in the last 3 and 4 of the last 5. Drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .29% of the last 34 to do that. Gets a new rider, who is super aggressive and should help this one get going a bit earlier, perhaps. I bet the 9 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 9 over/under the 1-5-10-11-12-2 in the exactas. More with the 1-5 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene
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