|Total Day Results||5 / 2-2-5|
|2021 Overall 1,285||1285 / 481-457-635|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.43%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.80%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 867-1,285||67.47%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / EP 148-207||71.50%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / EP 80-207||38.65%|
|“Key Horses” @ EP 29/ 8-8-6||27.59% Win / 75.87% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 193/ 84-45-20||43.52% Win / 77.20% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ EP 34/3-7-3||.088% Win / 38.24% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (8-26-21) 9/3-0-0||33.33% Win / 33.33% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-21-21) 2/0-1-0||0.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
Here’s our looks for the Ellis Park card on Saturday:
1st: 3/5-8/1-1A/7…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “Pea Patch” — Zoffa (3). This 3YO gelded son of Zoffany comes from a Stakes-winning dam, who has thrown 7 turf winners out of the first 10 starters. This one is still a maiden and will make the 11th career start in a MCL event at the $16,000 level. This one is a dead closer and will need racing room late. But he picks up the meet’s leading rider for the first time and the third start off the layoff could be the one. Barn wins with .14% of those kind. My solid pick. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed. More with the 5-8.
2nd: 2-5/4-3-1…This is a high-level optional claimer that will be contested over the main track at the flat 1-mile distance. I go with He’smyhoneybadger (2), since it is the beginning of the college football season. This guy comes from the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at a .31% clip after the first 52 starts here this meet and this one won at Churchill Downs just two starts ago. Returns here as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .34% of those guys, too. Should prefer the return to this distance and looks to have the speed to catch. Ram (5) should be the PT favorite, since he ran such a good 2nd here last time out. Came with a mid-stretch run that got him to the lead. Just bested to the wire. This one ran in the G1 Preakness Stakes just three races ago. No factor in that one, but could be a huge one here. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 2-5 over (only) the rest of the numbers in a smaller unit.
3rd: 4-6-1/5/(1A)-(7)/2-3…This is a 1-mile turf event for the boys and I go with Wentru (4). This 3YO son of Tourist could be a solid price, too. Comes in off a better-than-looks 5th here on July 31. Had to chase the leaders that day. Should be better with the lead and the rider is having a superb meet here this summer. In 8 tries over the turf so far, this one has a 2-1-1 mark and a second in two tries here. Looks to go-go-go. Militarist (6) is the ML favorite and does figure to be a threat. Comes in off a nice and fast-closing 3rd in the 2021 debut here on July 31. Barn wins with .11% in the 2nd start off the layup and has a 1-2-2 mark in just 8 starts here this meet. Likes the sod. Could move up. Optimus Kat (1) has run three good ones in the last four outings and does finish with interest. But this one has yet to run even 2nd on the turf and the dam has 0 turf winners. Best underneath. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 4-6 over/under the 1-5-2-3. Use the MTOs if off the turf. The MTOs will be tough.
4th: 4-8/6-7/2-1/5-3…Beach Holiday (4) is my next “Key Play of the Day.” This 2YO son of Into Mischief goes for the breeder/owner Godolphin Stables, and comes in off a solid 2nd in the debut effort here on Aug. 1. Should improve with the stretch out to the route distance and the barn wins with .26% of those making the 2nd career start. Like the rider choice. All in here. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-8 in the exactas. I will key the 4 over/under the numbers listed. More with the 8. Little less with the 6-7.
5th: 2-7-1/8/3-6…This grass event will be contested at 11/16-miles and I will give the edge to Princess d’Oro (2), who does hail from the barn of Bernie Flint. Not a big fan of this operation, but the trainer has won 3 of 9 this meet. Should relish this drop in class, and the barn wins with .27% of those dropping this much at one time. Gets the meet’s top rider up, too. Will be a threat at the wire. Moana’s Tale (7) comes from the barn of a HOFer, who has won at a .21% rate this meet. Dropped to this level last time out and ran third. Tired at the wire. But that was the first start in over 2 months. Barn wins with .18% of those making the 2nd start off the layup. Chance. Cash Refund (1) comes from a red hot barn operation, which is winning at a .27% rate here and about as good at Saratoga this summer, too. This one won the last time out and now will face winners for the first time. A real tough adjustment, but this barn wins with .20% of those kind and maybe the glasses have made the difference here when added just three starts ago. Take note. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8 in two smaller units.
6th: 9-11-7/5/3-6-12/2…Kaely’s Brother (9) will face the starter for the first time here, and the barn wins with .17% on debut. Sire wins with .19% of those making the career debut, though, and the rider has won with 1 of 2 for this barn this meet. Works are good enough. Talent shown in the a.m. I go. Devils Glen (11) is my next “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 2YO son of Daredevil comes in off some good works and the dam has produced 7 winners from the first 8 starters. Nice percentage of those won at age 2 — like in .67%. Wow numbers. Chance. Group Eighteen (7) is another first timer, who rates a shot. Works are good and the barn wins with .10% of those. Chilly all meet, but trainer warming up some. Only 2 wins in 21 starts, but does have 4 seconds and 5 thirds on the ledger. Underneath possible. I bet the 9-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
7th: 6-1-3/7/2-4/5…La La Land (6) gets my nod here. First time in the claiming ranks, and the barn wins with .10% of the last 40 to meet that criteria. Gets back to the turf here after an AW try. In 9 sod races to date, this one has 2 seconds and 3 thirds. Still searching for that elusive win, but this Irish-bred does come from a dam who has produced a grass winner. Meet’s top rider takes the reins here for the first time. Big move up. Hard Strike (1) is one is listed at 10-1 in the ML, thanks to my good friends at Brisnet.com. Was claimed just two starts ago. Ran very well here last time out. Moves up in class, and will face tougher, but this one is good right now. Chance. Hard Knocking (3) won the last time out and moves up to faces winners for the first time. This barn wins with .20% of those. Has speed. That will come in handy. Threat. I bet the 6-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 6-3 over/under the 1-7 in two smaller units.
8th: 7-2-3/6-5-11/9-10/1…The day’s finale is a 1-mile event for the fillies and mares 3YOs & Up and will be contested over the main track. I go with Dame Cinco (7). This one comes from the barn of Cherie DeVaux, and she has won with .18% of 114 starters this year. Chilly this meet, but this one comes in off a very impressive 2nd last time out Should improve off that effort and could fit perfect with this group with the meet’s top rider up for the 2nd time. Look out. Sovereign Appeal (2) ran just behind our top pick last time out. If you like the 7, and I do, I think you have to like this one, too. Has run two good ones in a row and if this daughter of Ghostzapper — who comes from a Stakes-winning mare — can win here? Look out breeding shed. She is equipped with the right genes. Buongiorno Bee (3) is my last “Longshot Play of the Day.” This one is a 3YO daughter of Tiznow and trained by one of the best in the business. Trainer wins with .17% of those that debut in a race of a 1-mile distance or more. The barn has won with 2 of the last 5, too. Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters. Adds up to a threat. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-5 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene