(Gene McLean and “Mr. Ellis Park” (Himself) — Gary McIntyre)

Days Results 9 / 3-1-6
2023 Overall — 1,204 1204 / 411-418-551
Win % of Top Pick 34.14%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 38.21%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 754-1,204 62.62%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 4-7 57.14%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 1-7 14.29%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 68-108 62.96%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 41-108 37.96%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135 64.44%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135 33.33%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 88-128 68.75%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 47-128 36.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 63.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 32.09%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 50.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 33.33%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 50% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 24/13-2-3 54.17% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 35/13-7-2 37.14% Win / 62.86% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 181/78-35-18 43.09% Win / 72.38% ITM

(Stats to be updated after Ellis Park’s card on Friday)

Here’s our looks for this “Super Saturday” card at Ellis Park, which serves as the annual “Ky Downs Preview Day.” Three major Stakes events on the bill this Saturday, with four more slated on Sunday. Here’s hoping the rain stops long to get some sod laid over at the ole’ “Pea Patch.”

1st: 2-4/1/5/6-3…Favorite Outlaw (2) — who just so happens to be Erica Outlaw, the GM of The Louisville Thoroughbred Society — gets the nod in the old’ lid-lifter at the ole’ “Pea Patch” on this soggy Saturday. This 4YO son of Maclean’s Music comes in off a 5th last time out. But that was a try over the grass for only the 2nd time and the experiment did not fare well. Back on the dirt here and had three straight 2nds leading into the last race. Should benefit from the last race exercise and the ban wins with .22% when making this surface switch and with .21% in Sprint races. Sharp work on July 26. Rider has gone 3-1-1 in the last 9 for this barn, too. Lots to like. I bet the 2 — sternly — across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-4 in the exactas. I will key the 2-4 over/under the 1-5 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 1-5/3-7-10/2-4-8-9-(14)/12…Wampus Kitten (1) is a 2YO filly by the young stallion Catalina Cruiser and will make the career debut here for a trainer who is red, red, red hot. Has gone 3-1-3 in the first 8 starts here. Dam of this filly has 1 winner from 3 starters and the rail is winning at a .30% rate. Sire wins with .20% on first tries, too. Lots to like. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-5 in the exactas. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 3-7-10-2-4-8-9 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 6-2-5/(16)-(14)-(13)/8-11/3-7/10-9…The first grass race of the day, if it stays on, and it will be contested at the 1-mile distance. I go with Private Credit (6). This 3YO Into Mischief filly ran in a Stakes last time out. That was last November. Off ever since.  But the barn is known far and wide for getting grass runners home on top. Trainer also wins with .31% when using Lasix for the 2nd time. This one is. New rider should fit this one perfectly. Beyond Doubt (2) goes for a barn that has won with .32% of 25 starts this meet. Been off since a lackluster effort in a Stakes at the Fairgrounds in mid-March. Training good for this return but the barn’s go-to rider opts for the top pick. Interesting. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 6-2 over/under the 5-16-14-13-8-11 in two smaller units. 

4th: 10-6-9/2-5-7-8/1-4/3-11…Django (10) is a well-bred 2YO colt trained by one of Kentucky’s best. Will go from a sprint to a route distance here and the barn wins with .18% of the last 159 to do that. Ran well here on July 1 and a veteran rider takes the reins again. Town Hall (6) goes for the first time and will carry the banner of the Brad Cox barn. Sire throws .18% winners on the fist effort and super work in Indy on July 31. Looks poised. I bet the 10-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 10-6 over/under the 9-2-5-7-8 in two smaller units. 

5th: 2-9-5/8-1-12-(13)/7-11/6-10…The 2nd grass event of the afternoon and this one will be contested at the same 1-mile distance, too. I opt for Sand and Sea (2). This 5YO mare has run over the sod 5 times with 0 wins. But does have 2 runner-ups and a 3rd to add to the resume. Rider has been ice cold all meet. Top for a summer heat jam? Sahlabiya (9) has a 1-3-1 mark in 5 grass tries and picks up one of the best grass riders in the Commonwealth here. Barn wins with .23% of the last 93 to move up to face winners for the first time. Looks ready. My bet is here. Take note. I bet the 9 — take note — across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 9 over/under the 2-5-8-1-12-13 in two smaller units. 

6th: 8-7/1-2/5//3-4-6/9…Carcano (8) has never missed the board in 5 career starts. Yet, has never won a race, either. Looks that may be a trend. But stretches out to a route here for just the 2nd time and the last try nearly ended up with a win. Beaten a neck. Barn wins with .17% in the 2nd try off a layoff and the rider is having a very solid meet. Has won with .20% off the last 10 for this barn. Concerted (7) should be the PT favorite and is another pupil of the Cox barn. Has 2 thirds on the resume so far and could improve here with the stretch out. Barn wins with .29% of the last 243 to route for the first time. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 8-7 over (only) the 1-2-5 in a smaller unit. 

7th: 1-10/2-3-4/7-8/6/5…KY Downs Preview Mint Ladies Turf Sprint…This is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the soggy sod and I will ante up with Bay Storm (1). This one has raced over the “good sod” just once in the career and nearly won that day in April of 2022 at KEE. Has a 4-6-3 record in 15 tries over the grass. Quaria Comet (10) does not show any races over a wet grass course. But does have 2 wins in 3 tries over the sod and a win in two tries at this distance. Look out here. This barn is highly underrated. I bet the 1-10 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 1-10 over/under the 2-3-4-7-8 in two smaller units. 

8th: 10/11/7-6-1/3-13/5-12/8/9/2-4…KY Downs Preview Dueling Grounds Derby…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Wadsworth (10). This 3YO gelded son of Quality Road just won the American Derby over this course and now has a 1-1-0 record in two grass attempts. Looks to be improving with every new time to the track and goes for a top barn operation. Looks like he will kick home in good order. Last win was over a “good” track. I bet the 10 to win/place and then key the 10 over/under the 11-7-6-1-3-13 in the exactas. More with the 11 than the rest. 

9th: 4-7/5/12-9-8/6-11/1-3/2…KY Downs Preview Mint Millions Turf Mile…This shapes up to be a real good one. I give the edge to Gray’s Fable (4). This 8YO old has a little experience under the girth and has been over a grass course a whopping 25 times. Has a 6-4-2 record. Nice rally in the last race at Churchill Downs. Fuerteventura (7) may be the PT favorite and is the one I will be betting. Take note. This 4YO son of Summer Front goes for a top trainer, who has won with .25% of 89 starts this year. Ships in from Minnesota for this one. In 8 tries over the sod? Has 4 wins and 2 seconds. Has won 2 in a row and hit the board in 4 of the last 5. Good right now. I bet the 7 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 4-7 in the exactas. I will key the 4-7 over/under the 5-12-9-8-6-11 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene