Days Results 9 / 4-6-2
2023 Overall — 1,031 1031 / 344-354-463
Win % of Top Pick 33.37%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 37.54%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 640-1,031 62.08%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 65-105 61.90%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 31-105 29.52%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 68-100 68.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 37-100 37.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 63.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 32.09%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 50.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 33.33%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 50% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 18/10-1-3 55.56% Win / 77.78% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 14/2-5-1 14.29% Win / 57.14% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 154/64-32-17 41.56% Win / 72.90% ITM

Stats Are Now Completely Updated

Here’s our looks at the huge, massive, once-in-a-lifetime card at the ole’ “Pea Patch” when the track hosts the first G1 Stakes in its’ history — the G1 Stephen Foster:

1st: 7//2-5/4-8-10/1-6-9/3…The first Key Play of the Day comes in the very first race of the day at the ole’ “Pea Patch” and the ole’ lid-lifter. I will ante up with Sapphire Nights (7), who comes from a red-hot barn which has won with .26% of the first 50 starts of the meet. Gets a top rider who has won with .22% of the first 9 mounts of the meet. Nearly won the last time out when dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time. Moves up a notch or two, but this one returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the barn wins with .24% of the last 846 to do that. I bet the 7 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 7 over/under the 2-5-4-8-10-1-6-9 in the exactas. More with the 2-5 than the rest. 

2nd: 3-6/1/2-8/7/4-5…Pumpkin Scone (3) will make the 2nd career start for one of the top barn operations in the sport today. Barn wins with .27% of the last 363 to do that. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up, who has won with .27% of the last 37 for this trainer. Spot on work on June 24. Spot. On. Looks ready to romp. Absinthe (6) goes for a HOF trainer, who wins with .19% of the last 522 to make the 2nd career start. Nice work on June 20. Gets a top rider up for the first time. Could make the difference. And, this one ran well on debut, too. I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 3-6 over/under the 1 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 1-2-5/4/3/6…American Derby Stakes…This is the first Stakes race of this most wonderful race day and it will be contested at 11/16-miles over the turf course. I go with Mo Stash (1) in this spot, despite the fact that the barn normally underperforms with top pedigrees and has gone 0-for-10 this meet. Top rider is back up and this one nearly took them gate-to-wire in the G2 last time out. Should be a tough one to catch here. Look out. Wadsworth (2) goes for a top barn, which wins with .28% out of the last 25 to make the 2nd career grass start. Nearly won last time out up at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Will be coming in the lane. Strong. Hidden Path (5) cannot be dismissed. This one has won two in a row and nearly won the debut, too. Has speed and will be able to go with the rail-bird. May set it up perfectly for the 2. I will bet the 2 — take note — to win/place/show and then double down on the win wager here. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over (only) the 4-3 in two smaller units. 

4th: 10-1-9/3/2/7-8/4-5-6…Normandy Hero (10) gets the nod in this classy MSW event for the 2YO colts. Love the sire. Loved him as a racehorse. Loved his versatility. Think he will stamp his sons and daughters with talent, too. This one will make the career debut here and he sire has hit with .50% of his debut runners. Sharp work on June 23. Looks really ready here. I’ve seen enough. I’m in. I bet the 10 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-2 in two smaller units. I will also key the 10 over/under the 1-9-3-2-7-8 in two more units. 

5th: 7-2/4-6-(14)-9/11/1-5/3-10…This is a 11/16-mile turf event for the high-class optional claimers and I will saddle up with Flatter Me Silly (7). This one has gone 2-3-2 in the first 11 starts on the sod. Gets a nice rider switch here. Will be coming late. Sinfiltre (2) is a 4YO daughter of Uncle Mo and is coming off a debacle in a Stakes event. Won the two races before, and can go long, long, long. Gets a huge rider switch here. I like this one. A lot. I bet the 2 — take note — across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-7 in the exactas. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 4-6-14-9-11 in two smaller units. 

6th: 2-7-5/3/1-6/4…Kelly’s Landing Stakes…This is a 6.5-furlong sprint and I will go with one of Kentucky’s finest —Bango (2). This guy has won only one of 3 at this track, but he loves, loves, loves Churchill Downs. Since this race was originally scheduled to be run at Churchill, maybe some of that mojo transfers here? LOL. But this one is no joke. Has run 7 times at this distance. Has won 3 of those. Has earned over $1.138 million in the career. Top rider returns and he won with this one just two starts ago and and has won with this one 4 times in the last rides together. Nice. Tejano Twist (7) ran just behind our top pick last time out. This one has never been beaten at this distance in 2 starts. Last time this rider teamed up with this one, they won 2 out of 4 in a row and never missed the board. Marsalis (5) moves up in class, but has never missed the board in 5 career starts. Has talent. Has speed. Is extremely dangerous if the rider just lets him roll. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2-5 over/under the 7-3-1-6 in two smaller units. 

7th: 6//11-12-4/3-5-7/1-9-10/2-8…The next Key Play of the Day comes here with Hoist the Gold (6). This 4YO son of Mineshaft comes in off a fumble in the G1 Metopolitan Mile — which was won by the world’s best right now in Cody’s Wish. Pushed the pace before tiring in that one. Back in allowance company here and there is no Cody’s Wish to tangle with here. Go back before the last and ran 2nd in a G1 at Churchill Downs on KY Derby Day. Looks and acts the part. I bet the 6 across the board and then double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the top 6 over/under the 11-12-4-3-5-7 in the exactas. More with the 11-12-4 than the rest. 

8th: 6-5/7/1-2-3/8//4…G2 Fleur de Lis Stakes…This is a wonderful 11/8-mile Stakes and collects a top field — led by A Mo Reay (6). This one couldn’t get rolling quick enough in the G1 La Troienne Stakes at Churchill Downs in the last out, but before that had won three in a row after being moved to the current trainer’s barn. Look out here with this closer. Just look out. Pauline’s Pearl (5) is another deep closer and has just one third in two attempts at this distance. Has talent, but looks 2nd best to me. I bet the 6 across the board and double/triple down on the win bet. I will box the 6-5 in one exactas and then key the 6 over/under the 5-7-1-2-3-8 in two smaller units. 

9th: 8/4-1/5-6-9/3//2-7-10…G2 Wise Dan Stakes…The next Key Play of the Day is Set Piece (8). This 11/8-mile grass event looks like a stepping stone for this 7YO gelding, who won the last time out and now has a record of 7-1-2 in 21 grass starts. Will make the Ellis Park debut here. Corners are tight here and that may present some issues for this deep, deep closer. But this one has the talent to be extremely tough in the late going here. I bet the 8 to win/place and then double/triple down one the win wager. I will key the 8 over/under the 4-1-5-6-9-3 in the exactas. More with the 4-1 than the rest. 

10th: 6-1/4-5/2-7-3/8…G1 Stephen Foster Stakes…The first G1 event to ever be run over this surface, and it shapes up as a super competitive race. I will give the edge to West Will Power (6). This one returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .30% of the last 361 to do that. Has gone 3-2-0 in 5 starts at this distance, and looks primed and pointed for this one — with regular and top rider Flavien Prat journeying in to the “Pea Patch” for the mount. Could earn an auto bid to the Breeders’ Cup Classic here. Has speed and that has played well over this track this meet. Needs to avoid the duel early on, but has the ability to put all away. Proxy (1) is just a solid son of Tapit, and has already won nearly $2 million in purses. Won the last time out in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap. If the rider just keeps this one out of trouble — which is a lot to ask of him, from time to time — then look out. Solid odds. I bet the 6-1 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 6-1 over/under the 4-5-2-7-3 in two smaller units. 

11th: 3/2-5-7/4-6/8-9//1…Tepin Stakes…The day’s finale is a 1-mile Stakes event over the sod and I will go with my last Key Play of the Day — Heavenly Sunday (3). This 3YO daughter of Candy Ride has never missed the board and has speed to burn. Looks like she can control this one from get to go and the dam of this one was Stakesplaced and has thrown a turf winner from 2 starters and a Stakes-winnner. Lots to like here. Lots. I bet the 3 across the board and then double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the 3 over/under the 2-5-7-4-6 in the exactas. More with the 2-5-7 than the rest. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene