Final Version: McLean’s Selections for Ellis Park on Saturday, July 16

(Stats to be updated after the Horseshoe Indianapolis card on Thursday and the Ellis Park card on Friday)

Here’s our looks at the “Pea Patch” on Saturday:

1st: 5-2-4/1/3-6…Happy Clouds (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “Pea Patch” on this Sunday “Funday” in Henderson, KY. This 2Yo daughter of Painter drops from the $50,000 asking price to the $30,000 tag here after just a race and she did manage a respectable 5th in the debut. Barn wins with .10% on the second try. Chance here. Magic Beauty (2) goes from a Stakes at Belmont Park to this $30,000 claiming level here. Has a couple of 3rds on the resume already and is going to be the ML and PT favorite. Has faced better, but short fields, too, and not as close at the finish line as one might hope or expect. Vulnerable, but one to beat. Flag to Flag (4) is a first timer for a barn that has won with .20% of 104 races this year. Wins with .13% on the first ask. Dam has a winner from two starters and the barn also wins with .26% in the claiming ranks. Lot to like here. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units.

2nd: 3-6/2/1-4/1A/5…B D Valeski (3) gets a strong nod in this capacity. This 3YO gelded son of Mark Valeski is trained by a solid horseman in Greg Foley, who is winning at a consistent .17% rate after 134 starts this year. This one has gone 1-1-2 in 5 starts over the sod and nearly won a Stakes event at Churchill Downs just two starts ago. Looks the best to me. Stayed in for Half (6) nearly won a nice allowance at Oaklawn Park just three starts ago. Ran 2nd to Zozos in the career debut, too, and that one ran in this year’s KY Derby. So? Talent here. Lotos of it. Will try the sod for the first time and there’s not much to suggest “lawn” in the pedigree. But the barn wins with .25% when returning as a beaten favorite. Comiskey Park (2) is a Chicago institution for the old and new baseball fan and this 5YO ships in from Chicago for this affair today. Has run four good ones in a row at Hawthorne and the barn does win with .08% when it travels. But it does much better when moving from dirt to turf, winning at a .20% rate. Brings a Chi-town rider in, too. Like this one. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-6 solidly in the exactas. I will key the 3-6 over/under the 2 in two smaller units.

3rd: 2-8/7-1/3//5-4-6…Words of Wisdom (2) goes for one of the top claiming operations in the Midwest. This one drops into the MCL ranks again here, but at the lowest price tag ever. Work here on July 10 suggests this one could be ready. Son of Tapit is out of a Stakes-winning Street Sense mare named Wedding Toast and was a homebred of Godolphin. Ran up against the likes of Cyberknife in its’ career debut. How the mighty have dropped. Private Connie (8) could pose a small problem. This 3YO son of KY Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus ran well at the $10,000 level last time out. Second in that one at CD, but has worked OK here, as well. But looks 2nd best to me, at best. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-8 in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 8-7-1-3 in two smaller units.

4th: 6-10/2-3-8-9/1-5/4/7…Sivako (6) is 8-1 in the ML and is our first “Upset Special of the Day.” This 2YO son of More Than Ready is out of a Stakes-placed Hard Spun mare. Bred for the sod and the trainer is much better than most give credit to. Barn has won with .20% this year and with .18% when going dirt to sod. Work on July 8 was spot on. Look for a better start and a better finish here. Fadethenoise (10) could be another longshot to make an impact here. This one is a son of Mendelssohn and will make his first start on the sod, too. Had to “take up between” horses at the start of the debut and lost all chance. New speed rider takes the reins here. Look for gas at the start. Could be gone. Gone. Gone. I bet the 6-10 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-10 over/under the 2-3-8-9-1-5 in two smaller units.

5th: 4-3-5/7-1-6/2…Bourbon Spirit (4) is a first timer for the barn of Brad Cox, who is having another super year. This one cost $200,000 at the 2021 KEE September Yearling Sale and has been working over this surface of late. Look at the breeze at KEE on June 29. Looks ready. Bluff City (3) ran well in the career debut at Churchill Downs on June 23. Pushed the pace early before fading to a respectable 4th at the end. Gets a new rider here and he’s hot of late, going 3-2-0 in the last 11 outs. Look for this one to be stronger today. Miranda Rights (5) will make the career debut here, as well. This son of Constitution goes for a barn that is off to a better start here, after a dismal Churchill Downs showing. This one comes from a sire whose progeny wins at a .19% rate on the first try. Sharp work here on July 10. Super nice. Chance if he can get away clean. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7-1 in two smaller units.

6th: 2-8-10/6-7-9-1/3/4-(11)…Mama Rina (2) will make the 2nd start of 2022 here and the barn wins with .19% when making the 2nd start off a layoff. Goes from dirt to the turf and the two strongest performances this one has, to date, came over this sod last July — a year ago. Won to break the MSW here. If she can return to that form here? Look out. Lady Arsinoe (8) could spice up the odds rack here a bit. Set at 6-1 in the ML, and this one comes from the Tom Amoss barn. It has been hot of late and this teamed up with this rider to go 4-1-0 in the last 9 mounts together. Chance. Lavish Habits (10) won just two starts ago at KEE and ran a huge one at Gulfstream Park in the winter when all the good ones were there. If this daughter of Flintshire can find that form again. Look out. I bet the 2-10 — take note — across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2-10 over/under the 8-6-7-9-1 in two smaller units.

7th: 2-3/1-5-8-9-10/6/4-7…Legionnaire (2) is the ML favorite, and this 3YO son of Into Mischief will get treated with Lasix for the first time. This barn wins with .21% when that happens, and with a whopping .24% when the steed is making the 2nd start off a layoff. Ran OK against an elite horse in the last race, which came right back to win the next time out, too. Sharp work on July 6. Lots to like here. What’s Up Doc (3) comes from the barn of Brad Cox, and that normally makes them a contender. This one ran 3rd on debut after a slow start. Gets a top gate rider here and that could mean a lot. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-3 over (only) the 1-5-8-9-10 in a smaller unit.

8th: 8-7-6/2/3-5/4/1-1A…Bama Breeze (8) gets the edge here in the featured race of the day. This 5YO gelded son of Honor Code comes in off a much-better-than-looks 5th in the G3 Louisville Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 21. that was the 4th Graded Stakes event for this one, in a row. Should love the drop in class here and a return to the allowance ranks. Last time facing these kind? Won at KY Downs. Could happen here, again. Attorney Tim (7) has 3 wins in 24 starts over the sod in his career. But he also has 7 seconds and 2 thirds. Underneath play, to be sure. Current (6) ran 3rd in a G3 event at Santa Anita earlier this year, and followed that with a win at Hawthorne. Will travel for the money and shows up here with a shot. Can stalk. Can pounce. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units.

9th: 3-6-10/1-5/4/2-7-9-8…The finale is the 5th grass race on the day, and I will go to Rather Be Lucky (3) for the top honors here. This is another daughter of Into Mischief and the barn wins with .20% when making the first start on the sod. Ran a huge one at the Fair Grounds back in January, but the last two have been off. Can toss the last one on the slop. But needs to step it up. Cut back to the 5.5-furlongs may help, with the move to the grass. Fingers crossed. Ball Gown (6) ran well over the grass at “The Shoe” last time out, when getting grass for the first time. Barn wins with .18% when going back to the grass for the 2nd chance. Could move up here. Get By (10) gets the blinkers off here and the barn wins with .40% of those kind. Working well at KEE and gets a cutback in distance here, too. Possible? I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-5-4 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene