Total Day Results 8 / 3-8-6
2021 Overall 1,098 1098 / 401-396-504
Win % of Top Pick 36.52%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.50%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 725-1,098 66.03%
2021 Top Selection ITM / EP 51-72 70.83%
2021 Top Selections Win / EP 27-72 37.50%
“Key Horses” @ EP 6/ 2-2-2 33.33% Win / 100.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 158/ 73-36-12 46.20% Win / 76.58% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ EP 13/1-5-2 .077% Win / 61.54% ITM

Here’s our looks on Saturday for Ellis Park, and what a nice card it is:

1st: 4-5-8/3/6-7/2-1…High Tide (4) gets the edge in the ole’ lid-lifter down at the “Pea Patch” this glorious Saturday. This 4YO gelded son of Malibu Moon comes in off a solid and better-than-looks 6th against much better last time out. Ran 2nd against allowance company at KEE on April 21. Now, drops to a career-low price tag for a barn that has won with 2 of the first 4 starters this meet. Rider has won with .33% for this barn over the last 6 starts. Could be a tough out here. Fieldstone (5) has a 1-1-1 mark in the first 5 starts over the sod and if you look just three starts ago, this one was right there against these types. Barn wins with .14% when on holiday this long and the rider has won with .44% of the last 9 starts for this barn operation. One to beat, IMO. Slicked Back (8) goes for the red-hot barn of Brad Cox, who just won the meet at Churchill Downs. So far this meet, Cox’s steeds have gone 7-2-2 in the first 14 starts. Not bad. Not bad, at all. I can toss the last one with this guy was a bit nervous in both the paddock and at the gate. Left his running there, obviously. First start was good enough to bet back. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4-5-8 over/under the 3 in two smaller units.

2nd: 1/3-6-4/2-5…Something Natural (1) is my first “Key Bet of the Day” and I am going to lock and load here. This one was claimed just two starts ago and ran 3rd over the AW surface at Presque Isle in the first start for the new connections. Back to the dirt here, and this one has a 2-2-1 mark in 7 starts over a fast main track. New trainer is a long-time owner and has knowledge of what the horses can and should do. Rider is having a very solid meet. I go here. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 3-6-4 than the rest. 

3rd: 2-6/1-5/4-3…Roger McQueen (2) goes for one of the winningest trainers in the game today. Has captured .34% of the last 216 starters. Comes in here with a 2YO son of Unified that cost $530,000 at the OBS March Sale this year. Ran a solid third as the favorite on debut at Churchill Downs on May 22. Works are solid. Should benefit from the experience. One to beat. Totalizer (6), a 2YO son of Candy Ride, is a homebred for the Winchell Family and should be a square price today at PT. This one ran zero on debut at Churchill Downs on June 20. Bet down that day, as part of an entry and the “Place” horse came right back to win. This one was bothered at the start of that affair, and showed nothing afterwards. Should be much better here. Barn wins with .15% when getting blinkers for the first time; .25% when returning as a beaten favorite; and with .23% in the 2nd career start. I’m in. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 1-5-4-3 in two smaller units.

4th: 7-3-8/2-10/(11)-(13)/5-1/9-6…This is a 1-mile turf event for the 2YOs and I will saddle up with Tempo Madness (7) is a son of American Pharoah and cost $210 at the 2019 KEE November Sale. Has run twice so far with solid, come-from-behind efforts in each. Just ran out of ground. Now, this one gets a route for the first time and the barn wins with .12% of those. When going from two sprints to a route, this one wins at a .17% rate. Gets a top rider on the sod and is winning at a .36% in the first 14 mounts this meet. Nice. Lucky Boss (3) goes for a barn that wins at twice the rate on a 2nd start than a debut appearance. This one should fit that category and improve immensely for this effort. Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters, but 0 turf winners. This one was favored on debut, though, and that speaks volumes. Look for a lot more here. Creative Bid (8) is a dorm mate of our 2nd choice. This one has run twice before and has been OK in both. Should improve with the added distance here. Rider. Hmmm. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 7-3-8 over/under the 2-10 in two smaller units.

5th: 7-6/1-2/3-4/5…Colonel Bowman (7) is a 3YO son of Curlin and comes out of the Brad Cox barn. Broke the maiden at the Fair Grounds back in March. Has faced some salty company in those earlier races. Should fit nicely in this spot and the barn wins with .28% when stretching out to the route for the first time. Rider for this barn? Wow. I like this angle. A lot. Cryo (6) was claimed last time out for $75,000 and now races against winners for the first time. The new barn operator wins with .25% on the first try after the purchase, and with .30% of the last 44 to move up to the winner category. Has ability. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-6 in the exactas. I will key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units, and then over/under the “all button” in two other units.

6th: 2-8/3-6-9-4/1-5-(12)/7…This is a 1-mile grass event and I will go with King’s Mischief (2). This 3YO son of Into Mischief has a second and a third in three previous grass races. Barn wins with .12% when routing for the first time. Should like the extra ground and gets the son-in-law up for the saddle job. Look for a huge effort here. I am. Engrave (8) will get the Lasix and the blinkers for the first time. Barn wins with .07% when getting the anti-bleeder and with .19% when shipping in. Love the rider choice here and goes from Chad Brown barn to a trainer that wins with .07% on first try. Lots to like. Lots to concern. Hmmm. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-8 in the exactas. I will key the 2-8 over/under the 3-6-9-4-1-5 in two smaller units.

7th: 3-4/2/5-6-7/1…Good Lord Stakes….This Stakes event will be contested at 6.5-furlongs over the main track and draws a very nice field. I give the huge edge here to Bango (3). This 4YO son of Congrats has two very nice wins in a row and I think the cut back in the distance should truly help this one. The 7-furlong distance stretches this one to the max effort, but this cut back should be just fine. Love the rider choice, who won on this one two back. Trainer is having a super summer. My solid pick here. In fact? My next “Key Play of the Day.” I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-4 in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed in two more units. More with the 4-2 than the rest. 

8th: 1-5/4-2-3/6-7-9/8-10…The finale is another 1-mile turf event and I will go to the rail and saddle up with Surveillance (1). This 4YO son of Constitution will switch to the sod for the first time and the barn wins with .11% of the last 53 to make this new journey. Works are good. Last work was very solid. Can figure in this group. Newsworthy (5) is my pick, though. This son of Tapit will travel down from the NY circuit to Ellis Park and is coming off two races that are much better than they look on paper. Watch the videos. This one figures here. Big time. At a square price, since my Twitter buddy “Rob” just busted me for playing too many favorites. (See Rob, I was listening to you over there.) I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 1-5 in the exactas. I will key the 5-1 over/under the 4-2-3-6-7-9 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene