Days Results 9 / 4-6-2
2023 Overall — 1,031 1031 / 344-354-463
Win % of Top Pick 33.37%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 37.54%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 640-1,031 62.08%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 65-105 61.90%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 31-105 29.52%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 68-100 68.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 37-100 37.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 63.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 32.09%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 50.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 33.33%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 50% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 18/10-1-3 55.56% Win / 77.78% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 14/2-5-1 14.29% Win / 57.14% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 154/64-32-17 41.56% Win / 72.90% ITM

(Stats to be updated from this week’s activities)

Here’s our looks at the Saturday card at the ole’ “Pea Patch” in Henderson, KY:

1st: 5-6-1/7///3-4…Mad Adam (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter down at the ole’ “Pea Patch,” along the rambling Ohio River in little Henderson, KY on this Saturday sun-day. This 4YO Super Saver gelding comes in off a nice 2nd at this same level last time out and will make the 2nd start after a claim purchase for a top barn. Trainer wins with .22% of 179 starts this year. Has the ability to improve here and new rider can’t hurt. Pico d’Oro (6) has just 2 wins in 25 starts, but does have 6 more “ITM” finishes on the resume. Drops to the lowest level ever and that drop should help elevate the chances. Race back in February is good enough to win here. River Boy (1) won the last time out and now loses that condition. Good right now and gets a rider who knows this track very well. Should be a leading contender to annex this one, as well. Barn wins with .38% when trying to repeat in the claiming ranks and is having a solid year. I bet the 5-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 7 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 5-2/1-6/3-4…Back-to-back #5s to start the day and I will saddle up with Collins (5), who will be making the career debut for a top barn operation. Godolphin home-bred obviously has the breeding to dominate in this spot. Trainer wins with .10% on inaugural goes and the rider has won with .33% of the last 9 for this barn operator. If he breaks well, look out. Beaudacious Colton (2) has the experience edge and has a 2nd and 3rd on the resume. Last outing was a debacle and gets a new rider now. New rider is 0-0-0 in 4 mounts so far. Ugh. I bet the 5 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 5 over/under the “all button.” More with the 2-1-6 than the rest. 

3rd: 9/10-4/8-2-3/1/5-6-7…The first Key Play of the Day comes in the first sod race on the afternoon, as well. This one to be contested at the 11/16-mile distance and I go strong on Get By (9). This one has not been on the sod since last August. That came here. And, this one has never hit the board in 5 grass starts. But? There has to be some good news coming soon, right? This one drops to a career low level and the barn wins with .13% when going from dirt to sod. Barn’s go-to rider takes the mount and this one has performed better against better than she will see here. Dam has thrown 3 turf winners from 8 starters and this one has grass sire-line, as well. Worth a shot in here for me. I bet the 9 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 9 over/under the 10-4-8-2-3-1 in the exactas. More with the 10-4 than the rest. 

4th: 8-2/3/1/5-7/6…Storm Haven (8) is the heavy ML favorite, and should be according to my numbers, too. Will make the 2nd start off the layoff, and the HOF trainer wins with .19% of the last 869 to do that. Should improve off the last start and drops more for this one. Barn wins with .21% of the last 862 in the MCL ranks. Serious threat. Jackie’s Spirit (2) goes for a highly-underrated training operation, who seems to always have their horses primed. This one is a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .25% of the last 16 to do that. Rider is having a solid meet and this one has 3 runner-ups in the first 5 starts. Runner-up again? I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-2 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 8-2 over/under the 3-1-5-7-6 in two smaller units. 

5th: 5-6/1/2/7/3…Dade Park Dash Stakes…This is a 5.5-furlong specialty race on the sod and is wide, wide, wide open, IMO. I give the edge to Release McCracken (5), but this one will make the debut on the grass and as a gelding, too. Lots of changes. Has not run since April 29, when facing too tough in the Bachelor Stakes. Has run well fresh in the past, though, and could pop here at a solid number. Chiseler (6) ran a huge one on the dirt on May 20 at Churchill downs. Has run over the sod three previous times and has 1 runner-up performance. Love the sire line on this one and could be the horse to beat. Has the speed to force the pace. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 1-2-7-3 in two smaller units. 

6th: 1-3/7-5/2-6//4…Jersey Pearl (1) gets the nod here. This one comes off a very impressive win last time out and has never missed the board in 5 lifetime tries, to date. Rider is having a solid meet and this one has the stalking style to make a large run in the stretch. Kant Believe It (3) goes for a successful barn operation, which has not had a runner here yet this meet. This one is coming off a win in Chi-Town and has a 2-3-1 mark in 10 tries. Better yet, has gone 2-2-1 in 8 starts at this distance. Has speed and could control the front end, which is dangerous here. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 1-3 over/under the 7-5-2-6 in two smaller units. 

7th: 8-1/3-5-7-10/4-6/2/9…Uncle Berley (8) will make the first start for the new barn operation after being claimed last time out. Gets back to the grass here and this train wins with .27% out of the last 75 to make the barn debut and with .17% of the last 29 to go dirt to sod. Has a nice 2nd in only previous try over the grass and the pedigree is here. My first Upset Special. I will lean on Moon Cat (1) to give this one a late run. Will get the blinkers off and will race as a gelding for the first time, too. Drops out of a Stakes into mid-range claiming. Quite a drop and that should help the cause. I bet the 8 across the board and then double down on this win wager. I will box the 8-1 in the exactas. I will key the 8-1 over/under the 3-5-7-10-4-6 in two smaller units. 

8th: 2-7/6/5-1-4-8/3…Loyal Company (2) is my solid choice here. This 3YO son of Frosted comes from great connections and the dam has already thrown 3 Stakes winners. Wow. What a mom. Should like the return to a sprint distance here and he barn has gone .23% winners with those that have gone from a sprint to a route and back to a sprint distance. Love this one. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-7 in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 6 in two smaller units. 

9th: 4-3/2-(16)/7-1-8-(13)-(14)/6-9/11-12-5…The day’s finale is a 1-mile turf event for the MSW level and I will saddle up with Boppy (4). This one comes from the Brad Cox barn, and it has gone 8-8-3 in the first 27 starts here. Win rate is .30% and that “Hit the Board” rate is amazing. This one should like the shorter distance here and has the speed to dominate from get to go. Get and go. Scatlie (3) ran a huge 2nd on debut at Churchill Downs on June 2. That was sprinting, though, and now stretches out for the first time. Barn wins with only .07% of the last 42 to do that. Talent here. For sure. But may be better next time. I bet the 4 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I will box the 4-3 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 2-16-7-1-8-13-14 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene