(When I am gone on work and other trips, the two “boys” sit in the same spots on the couch each day and wait for my return. On Friday, they get to come to the Lake House and join me. “Mom” is bringing them down. Crosley is on the left. Always. Haggard is on the right. Every time. It is their thing.)
|Total Day Results||8 / 3-1-4|
|2021 Overall 1,165||1165 / 429-416-533|
|Win % of Top Pick||36.82%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.43%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 772-1,165||66.27%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / EP 91-128||71.09%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / EP 52-128||40.63%|
|“Key Horses” @ EP 16/ 4-5-3||25.00% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 170/ 76-39-14||44.71% Win / 75.88% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ EP 21/2-5-3||.095% Win / 47.62% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (7-21-21) 3/1-0-0||33.33% Win / 33.33% ITM|
Not an overly productive day at the ole’ “Pea Patch” on Saturday. We managed 3 winners, but our “Key Plays of the Day” ran two seconds and a third. In addition, our 4 “Longshot Specials of the Day” finished first, third and off the board twice.
Not an overly productive day.
The only redeeming values were in the Exactas. We managed to win half of the races in this category and they paid out a handsome $24.30, $31.80, $25.20 and $31.40 for each $1 played correctly.
Hope Sunday is better.
Here’s a look at our picks on the first day of August at the ole’ “Pea Patch”:
1st: 2/4-10/3-9-5/8-1-7/6…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “Pea Patch” and with Beach Peach (2) in this 5.5-furlong sprint. This 3YO daughter of Dialed In ran a tiring and poor 5th last time out at Indy Grand on July 7. But she gets the drop from the $30,000 range to the $7,500 level here and the barn wins with .31% when cascading this much at once. Barn is winning at a .43% clip this meet with the first 23 runners, too. Gets a top veteran in the saddle here and the work on July 28 was spot on. Spot. On. Will probably lose this one for the title, but looks salty here. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under the numbers listed. More with the 4-10. Little less with the 3-9-5. Even Less with the rest.
2nd: 5-1-3/2/4…Big in the City (5) figures very strong in this tilt, too. Could have been considered a “Key Play,” too, but the bargain bin is a little tough to single, IMO. Either way, I will go solid with this 3YO gelded son of Trappe Shot. This one moves from the turf back to the dirt and that should help the cause. Goes from a $16,000 tag level all the way to the $5,000 tip here. Blinkers go on and this barn wins with .07% getting the shades for the first time; with .16% on this big of a drop; and with .27% making this surface switch. Looks well-spotted. Mr. Flattery (1) should run better with this considerable drop in class, too. Was claimed just two back for $10,000. Now, he is offered up for $5,000. Bigger truck? New rider could help the cause. Dodger (3) is a Louisiana-bred who will face open company here. Drops considerably for this try, and the barn wins with .29% when making this type of plunge. Threat. I bet the 5-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key thee top 3 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7/4-5/2-1-3/6…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Swange (7) in this 1-mile turf event. This 4YO daughter of English Channel is certainly bred for the sod. Sire is prime time on the grass, and the dam has thrown a turf winner from the first two starters. This one comes in off a 2nd here on July 11. That one was moved from the turf to the dirt, though. In 11 sod tries, this one has a win and 3 seconds. Second time at this level. Returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .25% of those in the last 942 to meet the criteria. My solid choice here. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 4-5.
4th: 6-4-2/5/1-7/3-8…This is the third turf event in the first four races on the card, and it will be run at the distance of 11/16-miles. I go with Gran Chemin (6). This 4Yo daughter of Constitution nearly won over this sod last time out. Just spit the bit in the final yards to lose at the wire. Returns as a beaten favorite here, and the barn wins with .25% of those kind. Likely to go to the front again for the 3rd try off the layup — and the barn wins with .15% of those kind, too. One to beat, IMO. Summer Store (4) goes from the MSW ranks into the MCL level here for the first time. Barn wins with .16% of the last 81 to do that. Gets a rider who has won with .23% of the last 13 mounts. Fits here for a barn that is red hot — going 6-1-4 in the last 14 tries. Take note. Forever Home (2) actually finished in front of our top pick last time out. Was nearly a 10-1 shot in that spot, though, and came with a late rush to get up for the “Place” position. That was the first try over the grass, and that could have made a huge difference. Barn wins with .13% of those going for the 2nd time over the sod. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
5th: 7-1-5/4-3/2/6…A very nice MSW event for the 2YOs has been assembled here at the 7-furlong distance over the main track. Could be some numbers to pop here, too. I will give the edge to the first-time starter and surely to be bet down to one of the favorites — Beach Holiday (7). This 2YO son of Into Mischief is a homebred for the Godolphin Stables and is trained by one of the hottest conditioners in the entire free world right now. Dam of this one has 4 winners from 4 starters and a Stakes winner, so far. Lot to like here. Lot. Lot. Lot. Levy (1) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” Don’t like the fact that this 2YO son of Gun Runner draws the rail for the debut. Don’t like the fact the rider is 0-for-14 to start the meet, either. But the dam of this one has 2 winners from the first 4 starters and has a Stakes winner on the racetrack, too. Work here on July 22? Spot on. Spot. On. If he can get away from the gate and save the ground? Look out. But must break sharp. Must. Big Country (5) is my third first-timer in here. This one comes from a dam who has a winner from 1 other starter. Has worked well. Chance. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7-1 over/under the 5-4-3-2-6 in two smaller units.
6th: 6-4/2/8-1-5/3-7…This is a 5.5-furlong turf sprint for the 2YO fillies, and I will saddle up with My Dawn (6). This daughter of Goldencents comes in off a near-miss 3rd on debut here on July 4. This one came late and nearly won before being squeezed out at the wire. Meet’s top rider returns. Trainer wins with .25% of those making the 2nd start over the turf, and that is with the last 28 to qualify. Was well supported at the betting windows on debut, too. Indicator. Ladybelucky (4) is my second “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 2Yo daughter of Lookin at Lucky may want more ground than this sprint distance, but she has been training lights out for a barn that wins with .14% when debuting on the grass. Dam was a Stakes-winner and has thrown a turf winner from the first four starters. Threat. Big threat. With a clean effort. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-4 over/under the 2 in two smaller units.
7th: 3-10/6-9-1A/1-4/8-7-2…Another MSW event for fillies, and this one will be for the 3YOs & Up going 1 mile over the main track. I give the nod to Upandcomingstar (3). This daughter of Into Mischief cost a whopping $500,000 at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale. Didn’t make her first start until about a month ago. Ran super. Nearly won. Just tired before the wire. Moves to a route here, and the extra ground could help, actually. She may be able to relax a bit on the lead this time for the meet’s top rider. Works are spot on. Barn wins with .23% of the last 487 to get their 2nd career start. Strong Silent (10) is a 3YO daughter of Wicked Strong and comes from the barn of Dale Romans, who is struggling mightily this meet. Has gone 0-for-18 to start. This one could have won the debut here on July 3. Just missed at the wire. Top rider comes back and moves to a route race for the first time. Barn wins with .19% when stretching out. Threat, too. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-10 in the exactas. I will key the 3-10 over/under the 6-9-1A-1 in two smaller units.
8th: 4/1-3-5/2-9/6-7-10/8…The final race of the day is the 5th event that will be held on the sod. This one will be contested at the sprint distance of 5.5-furlongs and I will ante up with my last “Key Play of the Day” — Hurricane Hill (4). This 5YO son of Fed Biz ships in from Belmont Park for trainer Bill Mott, who is winning at an impossible .44% rate here this meet. That is with just 9 starters, but barn has 4 wins and 2 thirds. This one will make the debut for this trainer, after being moved from Linda Rice. Barn wins with .14% of those making the debut for the new overseers. Gets a hot rider for a hot trainer, who has won with 3 of the last 5 here. In 8 career starts over the sod? Three wins. A win in 3 tries at his distance, too. My solid choice. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then key the 4 over/under the 1-3-5-2-9-6 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene