|Total Day Results||8 / 6-4-6|
|2021 Overall 1,071||1071 / 388-381-487|
|Win % of Top Pick||36.23%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.09%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 701-1,071||65.45%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / EP 36-56||64.29%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / EP 20-56||35.71%|
|“Key Horses” @ EP 5/ 2-1-2||40.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 156/ 73-34-12||46.79% Win / 76.28% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ EP 13/1-5-2||.077% Win / 61.54% ITM|
On Friday, we were simply awful. We described how terrible we were in the picks on Saturday. I hate to relive it. But we were awful. Zero wins. Zero.
We were simply amazing, even with all the scratches and the moves off the grass.
In the 8 races?
We had 6 winners.
In the 8 races?
We hit 7 exactas. The only miss? Well, Ellis didn’t offer an exacta due to the scratches.
And, our long “Longshot Special of the Day” ran 2nd. Our “Longshots” are not winning. Granted. Only one win out of 13 selections. But they are hitting the board and offering some really nice help in the exactas, as well. In the 13 selections, we have hit the board 8 times — 61.54% of the time.
We are looking forward to Sunday.
Here’s our looks for Ellis Park on Sunday:
1st: 7-4-2/5-6/1-3…Cave Run (7) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “Pea Patch” on this Sunday. This 5YO gelded son of Street Sense has raced 17 times at this distance. Has a 7-3-2 mark in those efforts. Will make the 2nd start for the new barn operation, who wins with .17% of those kind. Returns as a beaten favorite here, and the barn wins with .27% of the last 26 of those. Like the rider choice. Fits. Jack Van Berg (4) should run much better in this spot. Spit the bit last time out, but that was at 7 furlongs. Cuts back today and should fare much better at the shorter distance. Gets a top rider to saddle up, too. Threat. Thristy Betrayal (2) is a 5YO gelding who has run two super good races in a row. Has won 4 of 10 at this distance. Will be coming late, so look out at the wire. I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-6 in two smaller units.
2nd: 8-1-3/4/2-5/1A-6-7-9…This is the 2YO sprint for the fillies, and I will go with One Step Ahead (8), who ran a sneaky good 3rd on debut at Arlington Park on June 25. That was over the AW surface, and now will get a fast dirt spot. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the barn wins with .32% of the last 31 to qualify for that category. Rider is a bit chilly to start the meet, but knows how to find the winner’s circle. Dam of this one was a Stakes winner on the track and has already thrown 8 starters who have won 6 races. Has a Stakes winner in that group. Bella Prima (1) will make the 2nd career start here and should prefer the switch to the main dirt surface. Out of a Stakes-winning Tapit mare and this one gets a solid rider for the trip. Working well at KEE and looks like she could be a force against these types. Hannah’s Haven (3) is a first-timer for the barn of Dale Romans, who normally does well at the ole’ “Pea Patch.” This one cost $200,000 to purchase at the 2020 KEE September Yearling Sale and has trained well for the debut. Shot. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4 in two smaller units.
3rd: 5-3/1-8/2/4-6/7…Chipshire (3) certainly has the breeding to jump all over the turf course here. This daughter of Flintshire ran a big one at Indy Grand two starts ago. Gets a top rider up. And, the drop in class to the lowest tag ever should not hurt the chances. Speak English (3) is a daughter of English Channel, who has become one of the States’ best grass influences. This one ran well last time out over the Arlington Park sod. Should fit with these types, too. Rider going well right now, and has upped the win percentage to .17% for the 2021 racing calendar. I bet the 5-3 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 5-3 over/under the 1-8-2-4-6 in two smaller units.
4th: 2-9-3/5/10-1-4/6…Texas Red Hot (2) is a 2YO colt who cost $130,000 at a 2YO Sale earlier this year. Races for the 2nd career time here, after nearly rallying late to win the debut effort. Loses that rider, in a surprise move. Gets a top rider here to take the spot. If this one improves off the initial effort at all? Look out. Guntown (9) is a first time starter for HOF trainer Steve Asmussen. Working well and bred to win early and often. Son of Gun Runner, who has sired .46% winners on debut so far. Dam has 6 winners from 8 starters and 2 Stakes winners. Pedigree? Spot on. Jolly Tommy (3) picks up the long-lost rider on the top pick. This is a first timer by Practical Joke, who has tossed .44% winners on the first start, so far. Dam has 4 winners from 6 starters and a Stakes-winner, too. Sharp work here on July 6. Look out. I bet the 2-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
5th: 5-1/2-6-4/7/3…This is the 2nd of 4 grass races carded today and will be contested at the sprint distance of 5.5 furlongs. I will give the edge to Dance Rhythms (5). This 6YO mare goes for a solid hard-boot operation and comes in off a 4th at Churchill Downs against much tougher last time out. Before that, ran two seconds and a third before. In 22 grass races, to date, this one has a 6-5-4 mark. Barn is 3-0-1 in the last 7 outs, too. Adds up to H-O-T. Skinny Dip (1) is another from the barn of Greg Foley. This daughter of Into Mischief may be more talented than her stablemate listed just above. But this will be the first try over the sod. Barn wins with .12% of those. Family not known for turf runners., but this course has played to early speed. Got to use, if that norm holds true here. I bet the 5-1 across the board and then box the Foley duo in the exactas. I will key the 5-1 over/under the 2-6-4 in two smaller units.
6th: 9-1/3-5-10/7/2-6…Nineties County (9) ran a very solid 3rd on debut and the winner of that race came right back to place in a major 2YO Stakes at Churchill Downs at the end of the Summer Meet there. If this son of Connect improves at all? Watch out. Barn wins with .26% of those that make the second start and that is over the last 288 runners. Wins with .23% in the 2YO bracket, too. That is with a sample size of 634, too. Has talent will travel. Moon Dial (1) ran a huge one late in the career debut. This home-bred son of Dialed In can come late, as proven in the debut run. Bothered at the start of that one, and was green late. If he can figure out the start and this running thing? Maybe a special one here. I bet the 9-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 9-1 over/under the 3-5-10-7 in two smaller units.
7th: 6-(8)/3-2/1-5/4-(9)…If this event stays on the grass, I will have my first “Key Play of the Day.” I will saddle up with Alydiva (6). This 3YO daughter of Quality Road is very well bred, coming from a Stakes-placed Arch mare, who has thrown 2 turf winners already. Ran a couple of huge ones after moving to the grass for the first time at Churchill Downs in May. Look out here. She has the talent to motor. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 3-2-1-5.
8th: 2/10-3-11-4/7-6/8…The final race of the day is my second and last “Key Play of the Day.” I will go with Swanage (2) in this 11/16-mile grass event. This 4YO daughter of English Channel ran a better-than-looks 4th last time out against much better. Race two back was spot on. In 11 grass races before, has only one win. But 3 seconds. Could improve with the drop in class to a career low level here. Hot rider takes the irons for the first time. Blinkers do come off, and the barn wins withy .22% of the last 69 to get the equipment change. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 10-3-11-4 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene