|Total Day Results||8 / 8-1-2|
|2021 Overall 1,106||1106 / 409-397-506|
|Win % of Top Pick||36.98%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.54%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 733-1,106||66.27%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / EP 59-80||73.75%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / EP 35-80||43.75%|
|“Key Horses” @ EP 8/ 4-2-2||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 160/ 75-36-12||46.89% Win / 76.88% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ EP 13/1-5-2||.077% Win / 61.54% ITM|
What an amazing day at the ole’ ball yard in Henderson. What an amazing day.
For all my life, I have searched and wondered how “perfection” would be like or feel.
I never came close in every phase of my life. Didn’t even try, for the most part. But always wondered how it would feel to pick a winner in every race at the track.
For the first time — as in, ever — it happened at Ellis Park on Saturday.
There were 8 races.
We had 8 winners.
Granted, it was a day for the favorites and the “chalk.”
But “chalk it up” for the good guys on Saturday. I was undefeated. First time. Ever. And, it felt just like I always thought it would.
It felt great.
Don’t expect to ever do that again. After all, the favorites only win about .33% of the time.
But for one day?
For for time in my life?
It was perfection.
Here’s a look at our picks for Sunday:
1st: 1-9-5/6-7/2-8-4/3-10…Dream Music (1) gets the call in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “Pea Patch” on Sunday. This 2YO daughter of Maclean’s Music comes from a great sire line (great name, any way) and the dam is Stakes-placed. Has not thrown a turf winner as of yet, but this could be the first. Works are spot on. Trainer is winning at a whopping .50% rate here in the first 14 starts. Rider is winning at a .31% clip in the last 52 mounts for this barn, too. Rail spot is a bit tricky for first time starters, especially when sprinting on the sod. Lots to like. A few concerns. Royal County (9) goes for the 2nd time on the sod and the 4th time overall. Experience edge, to be sure. Trainer is carving out a nice niche as a 2YO conditioner. This one wins with .20% in the 2nd start on the grass and with .14% in the 2nd start off a layup, too. Dam has a turf winner already. Rider is red hot on these grounds, winning 2 of the first 5 mounts. Lots to like here, too. Rosy Dawn (5) is another first time starter, and goes for a barn that wins with .15% on debut and .12% with grass debut runners. This one training quite nicely here and gets a very accomplished grass jockey in the irons for the debut. Chance. I bet the 1-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-7 in two smaller units.
2nd: 4-2-3/6/1-5…Morethansoultitle (4) is a 3YO gelded son of More Than Ready and comes off a nice 2nd here on June 27. Tired that day, but should fit with these types in the 2nd go-round. Barn wins with .09% on the 3rd try off a layup. Has a 2nd in only previous run here. Rouson (2) inches up in the MCL ranks after a very encouraging run on debut here on July 2. Was 2nd that day, closing from a tough start. Gets a veteran rider who does well in these parts, despite the one win in the first 23 mounts so far this meet. Divine Leader (3) has not run a race since 2019. Been a long time between drinks of water. Drops all the way to the MCL $16,000 level here and will get the services of a top rider in this circuit. Connections paid $230,000 for this one back in 2018. Put their cash and time in. Can they get some of the investment back? Shall see. I bet the 4-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6 in two smaller units.
3rd: 1-7-2/6-5/(8)/4-3…This is the 2nd of 5 grass races on the card this Sunday, and this one will be contested at the flat 1-mile distance. I will get the edge to the rail runner — Big Dreaming (1). This 4Yo son of Declaration of War comes from a Rahy dam who has thrown three turf winners already. This one ran a very nice 3rd at Churchill Downs in late May in the last outing, too. In 5 turf races to date? This one has 2 wins and 2 seconds. Great work coming in. Could be a tough out here. Mailman Money (7) is the best horse in the race. No doubt. But this 4YO son of Goldencents will be trying the grass for the first time. May like it. May not. Does have a 4-2-1 mark in 11 tries over the main track, and is coming off a very nice win in the last allowance event at Churchill Downs. Top trainer and rider has won with .29% of the last 7 mounts for this operation. Look out if he adapts and adopts. Tut’s Revenge (2) is a veteran on the sod, and in 10 grass races to date, he has a 6-1-1 record. Nice. Has been running on the secondary circuits, but the resume is solid. May surprise here. I bet the 1-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under there 6-5 in two smaller units.
4th: 3-5/2-6-4/1…Jets a Ginnin (3) is the ML favorite, according to my good friends over at Brisnet.com. They list at 7-5 in the ML. Does have speed. Does have two wins in the last three starts. Does have the experience edge and the learning curve down. In the last 10 races? Has hit the board in each of them. All 10. Love the rider choice, who has won on his back before, too, at Oaklawn Park. Look out here. Shape of You (5) is another speedy type that could upset the cart with another dose of serious speed. Barn wins with .20% when won the last start, and this one has won two in a row. Chance. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 3-5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
5th: 2-1/8-3/7-4-9/(11)-(10)/6…This grass event will be held over 11/16-miles of sod. I go with Jezabel’s Kitten (2). This 4YO Kitten’s Joy filly has only one start since February, and she ran a tiring 4th in that one at Belmont Park on June 13. But this speedy gal led the entire way until it counted. Has a turf win here. Has a 2-1-0 mark in 8 starts over the glass. Barn is red hot. Rider is red hot for this barn operation. One to beat, IMO. Curly Ruth (1) could do a bit of surprising in this very nice allowance event. The 4YO Curlin filly certainly has the “star power” of the pedigree and breeding in-put to be very dangerous in this spot. Will be closing with a real purpose late, when she does her best racing. Wins with .20% when making the 2nd career start for a new trainer. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 2-1 over/under the 8-3-7-4-9 in two smaller units.
6th: 3-2/4/6/5-1…This is a testy 7-furlong event over the main track, and it can be a real test of nerves and skill. I will give the edge to Minute Waltz (3). This one is a daughter of Nyquist and trained by a guy who has a win in only previous try here this meet. Barn spent $425,000 for this family operation and ran a very credible 4th in the small Stakes last time out. Before that was 3rd and 2nd. Consistent sort is training well and picks up a top rider, who has won with .22% of the first 23 runners here this meet. Fabricate (2) came with a late rush to be 3rd last time out. Needs to get a little more motivated before the finish line, but has a good skill set that fits this track. This is the 4th start off a layup and the new rider can fit the bill here. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-2 in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over/under the 4-6 in two smaller units, as well.
7th: 8-7/5-4/1-6-2/3…Pea Patch Stakes…This is a 5.5-furlong test over the grass for the 3YO fillies, and I will saddle up with Lady Edith (8). This daughter of Street Boss really does like the grass sprints, so far. Has a 2-0-1 mark in 4 tries at this specialty race. This one has raced in three previous Stakes races. Has a win in that mix. From a Stakes-winning mare and trained by one of the best guys in the sport today. I’m all in. New Boss (7) ran huge to be 3rd in the Tepin Stakes at Churchill Downs on June 26. Before that, this one was a neck loser (and 2nd) in the Mamzelle Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 8 of this year. Trainer knows his way to the “circle” and this one has a 2-2-1 mark in 6 grass races to date. Definite threat to all in here. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box them in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will also key the 8-7 over/under the 5-4-1-6-2 in two smaller units.
8th: 5-7/3/4-6-9/1-10-2/8…The finale is the 5th grass race of the date, and this one will be contested at the 11/16-mile distance. I give the edge to Texas Shuffle (5). This 3YO daughter of War Front is out of a Stakes-winning dam — who has already thrown 2 winners from the first 3 starters. Gets a top rider up, who is winning at an amazing .47% rate here in the first 15 mounts. Has a 7-1-2 record. Wow time. Sharp works make this one more appealing, too. Sitting on go. Social Chatter (7) has a very nice 2nd on the resume so far. Accomplished that feat at Churchill Downs on June 19. Came from the outer reaches to close well and lose by only a neck. “Show horse” on that night came right back to win the next outing. Connections paid $130,000 for this versatile daughter of Twirling Candy. Real threat. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will also key the 5-7 over/under the 3 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene