Days Results 10 / 4-4-5
2023 Overall — 1,061 1061 / 358-365-481
Win % of Top Pick 33.74%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 37,.83%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 662-1,061 62.39%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135 64.44%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135 33.33%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 68-100 68.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 37-100 37.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 63.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 32.09%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 50.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 33.33%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 50% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 18/10-1-3 55.56% Win / 77.78% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 19/4-6-2 21.05% Win / 63.16% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 159/66-33-18 41.51% Win / 73.58% ITM

(Stats will need to be updated after Ellis Park’s cards on Friday and Saturday and Horseshoe Indianapolis’ card on Saturday, as well)

Here’s our looks for the ole’ “Pea Patch” on this Sunday Funday card:

1st: 3-1/4-6-2/5…Tap N Sway (3) is the 4-5 ML favorite in the ole’ lid-lifter at the ole’ “Pea Patch” on this Sunday finale to the festive weekend, and this 6YO mare deserves the role as favorite. Comes into this fray off a win at the same level last time out on May 23 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Now has a record of 6-6-4 in 30 tries lifetime and will make the Ellis Park debut here. Gets a very hot rider, who is winning at a .26% rate after the first 47 mounts. Look out here. Barn is hot, too. Has won 3 of the first 4 this meet. I bet the 3 to win/place and then box the 3-1 in the exactas. If an upset is to occur here, I think the 1 has the best shot. I will key the 3-1 over (only) the 4-6-2 in a smaller unit. 

2nd: 4/1-3-5/6//2…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Absolute Courage (4). This is another favorite and looks to be a tough out for a HOF trainer, who is having a superb meet so far. Has gone 22-13-7 in the first 64 outs this meet. That computes to a win ratio of .34%. Wow numbers. Rider has won .21% of the last 14 for this barn, too. Has hit the board in each of the last two and certainly fits at this level. I bet the 4 to win/place and double down on the win wager. I will key the 4 over (only) the 1-3-5-6 in the exactas. 

3rd: 11-6-5/4-(14)-9/1-12-10/2…The first turf event of the day and this one will be contested at the 1-mile distance for the 2YO fillies. Could to see the youngsters stretch out and get the sod, too. I go with Isle of Hope (11), who will be making the career debut for the red-hot barn of trainer Brad Cox. Barn has won .30% of he first 27 starts this meet and has gone 7-6-3 in the last 19. This gal comes from a Stakes-winning dam who has thrown 2 turf winners from 7 starters. Pedigree is there. So are the connections. Rider can boot and is very good on grass. I bet the 11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-9 in two smaller units. 

4th: 4-7-2/3-6-1/5…Page One (4) is my top pick here. Has a win over this track (2021) and has been training lights out since the last run at Churchill Downs in mid-May. Gets a very good gate rider and will like to be either on or close to the lead. That style has been dominant so far this meet. Sharp work on July 4. Drops in class here and looks salty. Mac Daddy Too (7) could add some spice to this odds rack. This one has hit the board in each of the last four outings and 6 of the last 7. Good right now and this trainer is having a very good meet as well (win rate .23% after 13 starts). Top rider here has won with .29% of the first 34 mounts. Solid. Greener Pastures (2) nearly won the last time out and moves up a bit to face tougher here. Barn wins with .31% of the last 55 to return as a beaten favorite, though, and is looking for the first win of the meet. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4-7 over/under the 2-3-6-1 in two smaller units. 

5th: 3-8-1/6-4/7-2//5…Miranda Rights (3) nearly won here on June 17 and now returns for another sod try. Has the pedigree to be tough at this distance and jury still out on the winning dam, who has yet to throw a winner. Gets a chilly rider, who has won with only .06% of the first 31 mounts. Ugh. Tall Boy (8) ran a good race here on June 10. It was just the 2nd start since a trip to Dubai earlier this year. Takes awhile for those shippers to recover, normally. Gets a veteran rider, who knows this track very well. Look out here in first try on grass. Dam has produced a grass winner. Quaternion (1) goes for a top trainer who had this one ready two starts ago. Last try was troubling, but now will try the grass for the first time. Dam has produced a grass winner and the barn wins with .20% of the last 35 to move to the sod for the initial time. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-4 in two smaller units. 

6th: 3/7-10//1-2/4-5-6/8-9…The next Key Play of the Day comes here with Charlie Whiskey (3). This 3YO son of Classic Empire was claimed for $10,000 just two starts ago. Held his own last time out against $20,000 level competition. Now, drops back to $16,000. Has speed and that helps immensely here. New rider should fit this one and barn is always good at this spot. I bet the 3 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 3 over/under the 7-10 in the exactas. 

7th: 2/6-11/3-8-9/5-7/1/4-10…The next Key Play of the Day comes here with High Class (2). This 3YO Into Mischief filly sold for a whopping $575,000 at the 2021 KEE September Yearling Sale and has now won $30,000 back yet. Long way to go and a short time to get there. But this one looks the part here and nearly won just two starts ago. This is the first start of the 2023 campaign, but training well and the barn does win with .18% of the last 728 coming off this long a layoff. Catches a rather weak group here, IMO. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 2 over/under the 6-11-3-8-9-5-7 in the exactas. More with the 6-11 than the rest. 

8th: 3-5-1/(9)/4-7/(10)-(11)/8/6…This is a 1-mile turf event and I will line up with Mahaamel (3). This 5YO gelding has the breeding on the sire side and it is still to be determined if the dam is a grass producer or not. She was a Stakes-winner, though. This one won here on June 11 and has hit the board in 6 of the last 7. Only miss was a 4th two starts ago on the grass at Churchill Downs, when she was defeated less than 2 lengths. Has only that one start on the sod. So, that is the question to be answered here. Can she? Point Me By (5) has a 2-5-1 record in 15 grass starts and has the edge in that department. Ran well at KEE two starts ago and has a win at this distance, too. Sharp work on July 4. Looks ready. Underneath? Stolen Base (1) has won over $536,000 in the career and has the credentials to support a comeback effort here. But he has only 1 win in the last two years and last 10 starts. Hmmm. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 5-4-7-8 in two smaller units. If comes off the sod? I go strong with the #9 — Main Track Only. 

9th: 6-5-7/9/8-10/1-4//3/2…Tiger Tap (6) gets the slight edge in the nightcap, which will be contested at a mile distance over the sod. This one has hit the board in each of the last 3 and has a 2nd in two previous runs over sod. Gets a very good grass rider up here and that should assist. Son of Tapit has the pedigree to be a good one, both now and in the breeding shed. Make the Boys Wink (5) is a roommate of our top pick. Has some credentials, too. Ran a good one at Gulfstream Park two back and was third against tougher last time out in the mud. Chance. Snow Princess (7) comes from a HOF barn and has the pedigree to be tough. New rider should fit this one perfectly. And…bonus time coverage here…Preempt (9) is my Longshot Play of the Day. This one will make the grass debut here and route for the first time for a trainer who has not excelled at this meet (0-0-3 in the first 13 starts). But? This 4YO filly is out of Centre Court, a very very very good Stakes-winner over the grass. Grass debut here could bring out the best in this one and she is 12-1 in the ML. Got to give her a shot. I bet the 6-9 across the board and then box the top 4 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 4 numbers over/under the 9 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene