|Days Results||9 / 2-4-6|
|2023 Overall — 1,014||1,014 / 337-344-459|
|Win % of Top Pick||33.23%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.48%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 628-1,014||61.93%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 58-96||60.42%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 27-96||28.13%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 63-92||68.48%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 34-92||36.96%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215||63.72%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215||32.09%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12||50.00%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12||33.33%|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1||50% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3||33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4||46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1||20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 16/10-0-2||62.50% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 14/2-5-1||14.29% Win / 57.14% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 152/64-31-16||42.11% Win / 73.03% ITM|
Here’s our looks at Ellis Park on this Thursday, which will kick start a power weekend at the ole’ “Pea Patch” and will include the G1 Stephen Foster Stakes:
1st: 5-6/1-4/3//2…Can Group (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the ole’ “Pea Patch” on this Thursday card. This 2YO son of Good Samaritan will make the career debut here for a barn that wins with .14% of first starts in the MSW level. That is with a sample size of 372. Rider is having a great meet, winning at a .28% rate over the first 57 starts. Works here are spot on. If this one can duplicate the morning form? Look out. Gottaneedforspeed (6) comes from a dam who has produced 2 winners from 7 starters and 1 Stakes winner. First start for this one and the barn wins with .12% of the last 117 to make debut in the MSW level. Works are spot on, too. Big shot here. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 1-4-3 in two smaller units.
2nd: 1-3/2-5/6/4…Paddington (1) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time after running a tiring 5th in the career debut on May 27. Barn wins with .27% with the 2nd career start and with .32% of the last 165 to make the drop into the MCL ranks for the first time. Gets the barn’s go-to rider in the saddle. Should fit better here. Go Cats (3) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time, too, and will get the addition of blinkers, as well. Barn wins with .23% of the last 35 to make the drop in class and with .22% of the last 18 to add the shades. Both should help this one. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-3 in the exactas. I will key the 1-3 over/under the 2-5-6 in two smaller units.
3rd: 1-8//9-6/5-2/4/3/7…Sri Lanka (1) gets the nod here after running a huge 2nd last time out and now will stretch out to the marathon distance of 11/4-miles over the sod. Barn wins with .20% when making the 2nd start of the layoff. Rider has gone 4-2-0 in the last 11 outs and has a real sharp work on June 22. One to beat, IMO. Okay Fine (8) goes for a highly under-rated trainer, who is winning at a .16% this year after 100 starts. This one fits here. Gets a top rider up, again. Should run better here. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-8 in the exactas. Double down on the exacta, too.
4th: 3-4-1/5/2//6…Good Heart (3) looks formidable in this spot. The 3YO son of Good Samaritan won easily last time out and the rider has teamed up with this trainer to go 2-1-1 in the last 6 outs. Working well right now. Supremely (4) has been a consistent sort at this level and could improve with the blinkers off. Barn has won with .25% of the last 12 to drop the shades. Rider’s Special (1) has run two good ones in a row and gets a top, top rider up here. This one has gone 2-2-0 over 8 starts on the main track. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-2 in two smaller units.
5th: 3-4-1/5/6//2…Appeal Denied (3) was in over his head last time out, but gets back to a good level here for a barn that has won with .20% of the last 60 to make the 3rd start off a layoff. Top rider won on this one two starts back. Gets the mount again here. Has speed to be dangerous over this track, which is favoring the front-runners so far this meet. League of Legends (4) could be a surprise here. This one is 6-1 in the ML, but this one has won only 1-of-16 on the fast dirt so far this meet. Has a shot, but underneath. Midaswellrun (1) could spice up the odds, too. Listed at 6-1 in the ML. Has hit the board in two of the last 3. Will come late, but the track bias may hurt chances. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-6 in two smaller units.
6th: 8-6/10-4/1-9-11/2-3/5…Jarreau (8) gets the nod in this 11/2-mile marathon over the sod. This one has run this distance twice before and has lodged a 2nd at one occasion. Gets a top rider back up and should be able to handle the distance. Sharp work on June 24. Looks primed. Trending (6) goes for a HOF trainer, who will add the blinkers for this one. Barn wins with .19% of the last 72 to get the shades for the first time. Top rider up and comes in off a 3rd last time out. Off since May 13. Barn wins with .14% of the last 266 to come back from this type of vacation. Chance. I bet the 8-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-6 over/under the 10-4-1-9-11 in two smaller units.
7th: 2-3/6-7-5//1-4…What’s Up Doc (2) has never missed the board in 4 lifetime tries and comes into this one off a nice 2nd here on June 18. If this one can duplicate the effort, then he will be a tough out. Barn wins with .24% on the 2nd try after a claim purchase. Rider is 0-for-17 for the meet. Ugh. Deputy Connect (3) goes for the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at about half his normal rate so far this meet. Look for vast improvement over the remainder. Could have a big day and weekend here. Won the last time out — back in March. Wins with .30% of the last 273 when facing winners for the first time. I bet the 2-3 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 2-3 over/under the 6-7-5 in two smaller units.
8th: 8-2-4/11-(13)/9-5-6/1-3-12/7…Unstable Princess (8) is my first Upset Alert on the day. this 3YO Cairo Princess filly ran a much better than looks 4th last time out on the sod at Churchill downs in mid-May. Back to the fast dirt here, where she has gone 1-1-0 in 3 tries. Gets a clever veteran in the irons and he is due to get hot here at the ole’ “Pea Patch.” Wont just three starts back. Has talent. Shoplifter (2) is 8-1 in the ML, too, and this one has demonstrated some real talent in the past. Toss the grass race experiment last time. Didn’t enjoy that trip. Back to the fast dirt here and that should aid and assist. Looks due to me. New rider back up. Magic Bubbles (4) gets a new rider for the first time. One of the best in the game and could help this one immensely. I bet the 8-2 across the board here and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11-13 in two smaller units.
9th: (12)-(11)-10/(13)-6/4-(14)/2-9/7/1-3-5-8…The day’s finale is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the sod and I will go to the AE List for my top two candidates. Anna’s Arabesque (12) has speed and can travel, if she gets in. Big time play for me. Scatlie (11) has talent too, and looks to rally in the stretch. But, again, must draw in to have a shot. If neither do, I will revert to Boppy (10). This one goes for Brad Cox and has run two solid races to start the career. Could be graduation day. I bet the 12-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key either the 12 or the 10 over/under the 11-13-6-4-14-2-9-7 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene