|Days Results||3 / 0-1-2|
|2023 Overall — 1,173||1173 / 403-407-532|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.36%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.14%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 733-1,173||62.49%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 2-3||66.67%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 0-3||0.00%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 49-81||60.49%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 34-81||41.98%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135||64.44%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135||33.33%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 88-128||68.75%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 47-128||36.72%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215||63.72%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215||32.09%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12||50.00%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12||33.33%|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1||50% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3||33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4||46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1||20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 24/13-2-3||54.17% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 29/11-6-2||37.93% Win / 65.52% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 175/76-34-18||43.43% Win / 73.14% ITM|
(Stats to be updated after Saratoga’s Thursday and Friday cards)
Here’s our looks at Ellis Park for Tuesday, Aug. 1. This card was originally scheduled to be held on Saturday. But it was moved because of the excessive heat that was forecasted for the area.
1st: 1-10/3/2-4-5-7/6-8/9…Take It South (1) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the ole’ “Pea Patch” on this unusual race day of Tuesday. (This card was originally scheduled for Saturday, but was moved due to the excessive heat index that was expected for the area over the weekend.) This 3YO filly drops all the way from a MSW level event to the $16,000 MCL ranks here for a barn that wins with .21% of the last 67 to be away this long. Does have a runner-up and a 3rd in 4 turf tries, to date. Should fit here. Goldcrest (10) takes a similar plummet in the class rankings. First time on sod and this barn wins with .09% of the last 129 to do that. Barn having a tough meet, so far. Zero-for-15 to start the Ellis Park meet. Ugh. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-10 in the exactas. I will key the 1-10 over/under the 3-2-4-5-7 in two smaller units.
2nd: 2/1/3/4-7/5/6…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Sapphire Nights (2). This one is even-money in the Brisnet.com ML, and, IMO, should be. Drops to a career-low price tag and probably worth the claim money here. Ran a solid 2nd here on June 17 against tougher. Barn wins with .24% of the last 864 to return to the gate as a beaten favorite. Rider has won with .33% of the last 24 for this trainer. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I key the 2 over/under the 1-3-4-7-5 in the exactas. Lots more with the 1-3 than the rest.
3rd: 2-3/5-7-10/1-4-6/8-9…Pray for Champagne (2) will be making the racing debut for a barn that wins with .09% when trying the others for the first time on grass. Barn wins with .17% in the 2YO ranks and this one comes in off a super sharp work at Churchill Downs on July 21. Rider is good at the gate and could get this one moving early. Princess Mitole (3) tired in both the first two starts. Should like the grass, based on the female side. Gets an aggressive rider in the saddle and that could help this one immensely. Chance. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-3 over/under the 5-7-10-1-4-6 in two smaller units.
4th: 2/6/7-3-5/1-4…The 2nd Key Play of the Day comes here with my third straight #2 selection — Shell Shock (2). This 6YO American Pharoah mare has hit the board in 13 of 25 lifetime tries. Only 2 wins in that grouping, so this one may have a tendency to hang at wire time. But the new rider is having a very solid meet and the barn wins with .16% when going from a sprint to a route and back to a sprint distance. Like this one. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 2 over/under the 6-7-3-5 in the exactas. More with the 6 than the rest.
5th: 10-3-4/5-8/2-(12)-(14)/1-6-7/(11)-9…This is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the sod and I line up with the outside runner Song of Norway (10). This gal will be making the career debut for a trainer that excels at these types of races and the ownership group is top notch. Know them well and they purchase good stock. Daughter of Flatter comes from a Stakes-winning mare and she has thrown 2 turf winners from the first 6 starters. Lots to like here. Joke Master (3) has the experience edge and could be a factor, but the barn is ice-cold these days. Stakes-placed dam has produced a turf winner. Pinotslilgirl (4) has run two 3rds in a row to begin the career. Improvement could happen. I bet the 10 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 10 over/under the 3-4-5-8-2 in two smaller units.
6th: 9-12-10/3-5-11-7/6-8/4…Fiesta Besta (9) is another first time starter who I like on top today. This 3YO daughter of KY Derby winner Hard Spun has been working lights out here and gets a veteran rider who knows how to find the finish line and the winner’s circle, too. Having a very nice meet so far, winning at a .20% rate. Look out for speed here. Flashy Lass (12) comes from the barn of Brad Cox, who has just won with .44% of the first 18 to go to the gate here this meet. Unreal numbers. Unreal. Got to use, right? I bet the 9-12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 9-12 over/under the 10-3-5-11-7 in two smaller units.
7th: 1-10/2-5-4/3-(14)/7-11-8/6-12…Midvale (1) comes from outstanding connections and should love the conversion to the sod, too. Gets Lasix for the first time and goes for a trainer who wins with .15% of the last 81 to try the sod for the first time. Look at the work on July 18. Unreal. First start of the year, but looks primed and ready to fire. Jennifer My Love (10) ran a super 2nd here last time out and picks up a new rider here. Would not be a surprise if lands on top. I bet the 1-10 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 1-10 over/under the 2-5-4-3 in two smaller units.
8th: 7-4/1-8/2/3/5-6…Procrastination (7) ships from the Left Coast here and moves from the sod to the main track. Lots of changes. But this trainer is sneaky good and picks up a rider having a super meet, so far. Rider has gone 10-2-4 in the first 38 mounts. This one has speed and that plays well here. American Retro (4) moves up after an impressive win at Churchill Downs on June 3. Off since then, but training well for a barn that wins with .14% of the last 74 to face winners for the first time. Picks up a new rider, who is having a solid meet. Big chance if runs the same race back. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the 7-4 in the exactas. I will key the 7-4 over/under the 1-8-2-3 in two smaller units.
9th: 6-3-8//4-9-11/5-10/2-7…Qualified (6) looks ready to move to the graduation class here, after running a very nice 3rd over the sod at Churchill Downs in late May. Off since, but working well for the return. Has converted to the sod well and the dam has thrown a turf winner. Rider is just 1-for-31 this meet, though. Ugh. Grand Aspen (3) goes for trainer Todd Pletcher and this 4YO ran a very nice 2nd here in the 2023 debut on July 7. Just got tired at the end. If that exercise helps? Look out. My pick. Take note. Surface to Air (8) is another one who has run well in the last two outs. Could improve here and be a tough out, as well. I bet the 3 — take note — across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 6-8-4-9-11 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene